NBA Insiders Dish On 3 Most Realistic Endings To LeBron James' Career
What does LeBron James want?
That question has been on the minds of league insiders since his agent, Rich Paul, issued a cryptic statement in late June while announcing that LeBron would be exercising his $52.6 million player option.
"LeBron wants to compete for a championship," Paul told ESPN at the time. "He knows the Lakers are building for the future. He understands that, but he values a realistic chance of winning it all. We are very appreciative of the partnership that we've had for eight years with Jeanie [Buss] and Rob [Pelinka] and consider the Lakers as a critical part of his career.
"We understand the difficulty in winning now while preparing for the future. We do want to evaluate what's best for LeBron at this stage in his life and career. He wants to make every season he has left count, and the Lakers understand that, are supportive and want what's best for him."
All of which is fair, except it makes it sound like the Lakers spent the offseason tearing their roster down.
The Lakers have decided to hold onto most of their future draft picks instead of dangling them in deals. But they also signed Deandre Ayton, Jake LaRavia and Marcus Smart in the offseason, each of whom should help the Lakers win games this year.
Los Angeles also extended Luka Dončić, a massive factor in LeBron-Lakers dynamics moving forward.
The Lakers may not be the title favorites heading into the season, but they're capable of winning one. If nothing else, they should at least compete at a high level.
Which brings us back to the original question, except let's phrase it a different way.
What is LeBron mad about?
How We Got Here
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[Correction/editor's note: The following paragraphs have been to edited to clarify that James' agent has said that he did not ask for an extension.]
The 2025-26 season will be the first in LeBron's 23-year career in which he will be playing on an expiring contract. Considering LeBron wrote the modern-day playbook on how to create and utilize leverage in negotiations, was it his plan to go into this season on an expiring contract?
"He obviously wanted an extension, and it's also clear that the Lakers wouldn't give it to him," one source familiar with LeBron and the Lakers speculated. "That's what he was reacting to."
Most around the league assume LeBron wanted to sign a "one-plus-one" extension—meaning one guaranteed year plus a player option—but multiple reports have said that the Lakers did not offer him a contract. Rich Paul told ESPN in July that James did not ask the Lakers for one this summer.
What Happens Next?
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Does LeBron play out the season with the Lakers and retire? Does he play out the season with the Lakers and then sign with another team in the 2026 offseason? Does he get traded in the middle of the season? Does he get bought out?
We know LeBron wants to win, we know he wants to get paid, and we know he wants to be the sun around which everything else orbits.
I spent three years writing a book on LeBron and the Lakers. Everyone I spoke to during that process believed that when LeBron eventually decides to retire, he will do so with an elaborate farewell tour, similar to Kobe Bryant's.
"The problem is that he's put himself in a situation where it's impossible for him to get everything he wants," the executive said. "He has no leverage here, and he's not used to that."
Now that he's in the twilight of his career, what's next for James?
We asked insiders around the league how they see this saga unfolding.
LeBron Asks Out of L.A.
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Teams like the Dallas Mavericks and New York Knicks were floated as potential landing spots for LeBron this summer. The Knicks are a legacy team in a large market, while the Mavericks' roster includes James' close friends like Kyrie Irving, Anthony Davis and Jason Kidd.
However, most agents and executives believe the Cleveland Cavaliers are the only team LeBron would seriously consider joining outside of the Lakers.
"If he wants to do a farewell tour like Kobe did, it's the only other team that makes sense," said a different league executive. "LeBron cares about narratives. He doesn't want to be like Michael Jordan on the Wizards."
The issue is that his contract is too large to be traded to Cleveland without the Cavs giving up key players like Darius Garland and Jarrett Allen. "And that's never going to happen," said a third league executive.
The only path to Cleveland would be a contract buyout from the Lakers before this season. Because the Cavaliers are above the second apron, they aren't allowed to sign someone off the buyout market who was previously earning more than the non-taxpayer mid-level exception once the 2025-26 regular season begins
"Cleveland would obviously welcome that," said the third league executive. But would LeBron? Opinions around the league are mixed.
"I don't think he'd care," the agent said. "He knows that playing with the Cavs in the East would make them heavy favorites to make the Finals," the first agent said. But most league insiders are dubious.
"When you take a buyout, that's a signal that people around the league don't want you," a second agent said. "And I don't think LeBron wants that."
LeBron Plays Out the Season...and Leaves Next Summer
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As much as LeBron has enjoyed poking at the Lakers over the past few years, whenever presented with the opportunity for a trade, he's always turned it down.
In February 2024, the Golden State Warriors contacted Rich Paul to gauge LeBron's interest in joining them, according to ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski and Ramona Shelburne. Paul told them no. This past February, after being asked by reporters how he felt about the Dončić trade, LeBron said, "If I had concerns about it, I'd waive my no-trade clause and get up out of here. I'm here right now. I'm here right now. I'm committed to the Lakers organization."
Most league insiders believe that if LeBron decides to spend his final year (or years) with a different team, he'd play out this season in L.A. and then leave as a free agent next summer.
"He's never changed teams in the middle of a season before," another league executive said. "Is he really going to do so for the first time now?"
Playing out the season would also allow LeBron to kick the can down the road. "They might not be at Oklahoma City's level, but the Lakers will be good this year," the first league executive said. "Once the games start, that's the stuff that will matter."
But the question remains: Can another team pay LeBron what he wants while also giving him a proper farewell tour? The options are limited.
Is any team going to give a 41-year-old LeBron more than the mid-level exception? Would he really spend his final season in a uniform other than the Cavs or Lakers? All of that seems unlikely.
"A farewell tour with the Cavs makes sense," the first agent said. "And it's a way for LeBron to save face and say this is what he wanted. But he's not getting a big payday from them."
LeBron Retires a Laker
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This is where most NBA insiders land.
"[LeBron]'s talking about winning now, but over the past few years, he's mostly seemed to be over the 'All I care about is winning titles' thing," the second league executive said.
"All this is obviously about not getting that extension. So is LeBron really going to leave L.A.—where his family, where his son is his teammate, where it's clear he's really comfortable—because he's annoyed at the Lakers?"
Given how Dončić looked at EuroBasket in early September, the Lakers may spend the season competing for one of the West's top playoff spots. If that's the case, will LeBron really ask out under the guise of "wanting to win"?
"No chance," the first agent said.
Maybe LeBron surprises everyone and deviates from usual approach.
But people in their 40s don't typically change their ways.
Yaron Weitzman is an award-winning NBA writer and the author of A HOLLYWOOD ENDING: THE DREAMS AND DRAMA OF THE LEBRON LAKERS. Follow him on X @YaronWeitzman.
