Predicting the NBA's Top 5 MVP Candidates in 5 Years
In five years, the NBA could be a wildly different place.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will be making $75.4 million. The current CBA will have expired. Legends like LeBron James, Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant will likely have retired.
In five years, we could also see a fresh group of MVP candidates as a new wave of talent takes over the league.
Even players like Gilgeous-Alexander and Luka Dončić will be in their early 30s in five years. History has shown that's probably too old to be named MVP, as only one player (Steve Nash) in the past 25 years has received the award beyond that age—although he did so twice.
The average NBA MVP age over the last 25 years is just 26.5, so we're targeting players in their mid-to-late 20s as the ideal candidates.
When factoring their career arc to this point and projecting where they'll be in five years, these five players will all be at the top of the MVP running heading into the 2030-31 season.
5. Evan Mobley, F/C, Cleveland Cavaliers
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Age in 2030-31: 29
Just a year ago, Evan Mobley was coming off an injury-riddled season in which he averaged a modest 15.7 points a game and appeared to be a bad long-term fit alongside Jarrett Allen in the Cleveland Cavaliers frontcourt.
Fast forward to the present day, and Mobley looks like he'll be one of the NBA's best two-way big men for the next decade.
At age 23, Mobley won Defensive Player of the Year, was named to the All-NBA second team and reached his first All-Star game. He also finished 10th in MVP voting.
New Cavs head coach Kenny Atkinson did wonders for Mobley's development, especially on the offensive end. Mobley made a total of 67 three-pointers in his first three years in the NBA (on just 26.5 percent shooting). In one year under Atkinson, Mobley splashed 85 at a 37.0 percent clip.
Increasing his offensive volume is going to be key to Mobley winning MVP one day, as he's already been crowned the NBA's best defender.
His usage rate jumped to a career-high 23.2 percent last season. With Darius Garland and Max Strus both projected to miss the beginning of the 2025-26 season due to injury, Mobley should get far more offensive touches alongside Donovan Mitchell.
If Mitchell is still playing next to Mobley with the Cavs in five years, the All-NBA guard will be 34 years old. There's a strong chance that Mobley will take over as the No. 1 scoring option between now and then.
An elite defender who grew his offensive game exponentially last season, Mobley will be a key name to watch in the MVP race moving forward.
4. Paolo Banchero, PF, Orlando Magic
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Age in 2030-31: 27
Paolo Banchero has already claimed a Rookie of the Year award and an All-Star bid in year 2 before injuries limited him last year.
Banchero averaged a career-high 25.9 points, 7.5 rebounds and 4.8 assists last season and is still just 22 years old. The No. 1 overall pick in the 2022 draft has a combination of size, strength and mobility that we rarely see in the NBA.
There's reason to believe that Banchero can become a lot better as the Orlando Magic improve the roster around him as well.
A severe lack of playmaking around him has hurt Banchero's efficiency numbers (45.2 percent shooting overall, 32.0 percent from three last year). Only 37.8 percent of his twos and 49.4 percent of his threes came off of an assist last season. Anthony Davis, another power forward who went No. 1 overall, had 60.5 percent of his twos and 88.6 percent of his threes come off an assist in 2024-25.
The Orlando Magic traded for Desmond Bane and signed Tyus Jones this offseason. Getting Jalen Suggs healthy for an entire season will help as well.
If he has the right playmaking around him, there's no reason why Banchero can't be one of the NBA's top scorers over the next decade.
The Magic should be good, meaning we'll likely see another All-Star trip for Banchero and his first All-NBA team this season, with realistic MVP chatter lurking in the background over the next few years.
3. Cade Cunningham, PG, Detroit Pistons
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Age in 2030-31: 28
Everything came together in Year 4 for Cade Cunningham and the Detroit Pistons.
After winning 54 total games in his first three NBA seasons, Cunningham led the Pistons to 44 victories and a very competitive first-round playoff series against the New York Knicks. Cunningham proved not only able to put up the numbers needed to win MVP one day, but also that those stats could lead to wins as well.
Now just shy of his 24th birthday, Cunningham averaged 26.1 points, 9.1 assists, 6.1 rebounds, 1.0 steals, 0.8 blocks and made 35.6 percent of his three-pointers last season. The only other NBA player to average at least 26 points and nine assists? Three-time MVP Nikola Jokić.
Cunningham was named an All-Star for the first time, made the All-NBA third team and tied-for-seventh in MVP voting. He ranked ninth overall in scoring and fourth in assists.
At 6'6" and 220 pounds, Cunningham has the frame to become a premier contact initiator as he develops his overall offensive game. He's doubled his three-throw trips since his rookie season and will continue to become one of the game's best scorers with increased drives and improved three-point efficiency.
The best passer on this entire list, Cunningham has the height to see over most of his defenders and the Pistons' young core only continues to develop next to him.
Detroit has a chance to make a real run in a weakened East. If the Pistons can grab a top-3 seed, Cunningham should be an MVP frontrunner immediately.
2. Anthony Edwards, SG, Minnesota Timberwolves
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Age in 2030-31: 29
The evolution of Anthony Edwards only continues to grow.
The recently-turned 24-year-old has combined big numbers with winning basketball, carrying the Minnesota Timberwolves to the last two Western Conference Finals.
Edwards is coming off a career-high 27.6 points per game (fifth-most in the NBA), 5.7 rebounds, 4.5 assists and 1.2 steals per game. His bread-and-butter will remain getting into the lane and finishing around and over opponents, although Edwards diversified this offensive attack by shooting a career-best 39.5 percent from three on 10.3 attempts per game (fourth-most in the league).
This is important for Edwards' future MVP chances, as he'll still likely be an elite athlete into his 30s, yet may not have the same bounce as he does now. A high volume of three-pointers at a near (or above) 40.0 percent clip will help atone for this loss of leap.
Now five years into his career, Edwards is coming off back-to-back top-seven MVP finishes, three All-Star games and was Rookie of the Year in 2020-21. He's also made the All-NBA second team the past two seasons.
One other major advantage for Edwards being named a future MVP is his durability.
With the new(ish) criteria of a player needing to hit 65 games to be eligible for postseason awards, Edwards has played in 72 or more in all five seasons, including 79 in each of the past three.
Edwards is a star flirting with superstar status. He'll officially make the leap over the next five years.
1. Victor Wembanyama, C, San Antonio Spurs
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Age in 2030-31: 26
The Victor Wembanyama hurricane is about to make landfall, if it hasn't already.
Only 117 games into his career thus far, Wembanyama has already been named Rookie of the Year, an All-Star, finished second in Defensive Player of the Year voting and led the NBA in blocked shots per game, twice.
The question isn't if the current 21-year-old will win MVP, but how many. After displaying the greatest defensive performance we've seen from a rookie in decades, Wembanyama was the favorite to win DPOY in Year 2 had a blood clot not sidelined him before hitting the mandatory 65 games.
Standing 7'5" in shoes with a 8-foot wingspan, Wembanyama doesn't protect the paint; he locks down everything inside the arc. Offenses will be forced to plan their entire scoring attack against his go-go-gadget frame for the next decade and a half.
We haven't even mentioned the other side of the ball yet.
With averages of 24.3 points, 11.0 rebounds, 3.7 assists, 1.1 steals and 3.8 blocks last season, Wembanyama proved to the league that he's a threat from outside the three-point line as well. His 3.1 made threes per game on 35.2 percent shooting were major improvements over his rookie season.
A center who can legitimately grab a rebound, take three dribbles and finish with a dunk over a helpless defender, Wembanyama is quickly becoming the NBA's ultimate weapon.
We'll see how much current teammates like De'Aaron Fox, Dylan Harper and Stephon Castle cut into his scoring numbers over a full season. In five years, however, Wembanyama should be the top MVP candidate and may have a handful of trophies already.
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