UFC Fight Night 72: Main Card Staff Predictions
This Saturday marks a first for the UFC.
Fans may be forgiven for not realizing it at a glance, as UFC Fight Night 72 will be the fourth UFC show to air in a calendar week. But a first it is nonetheless, as this Saturday morning card marks the UFC's first foray into the beautiful, rugged, fighting land of Scotland.
So get up early in the morn, and get your stereotypes ready. Get your haggis, which in reality is probably much less disgusting than your average hot dog. Get your whiskey, your bagpipes and your favorite Braveheart quote, and meet in front of the television to watch this historic card.
In the main event, you have British kickboxer Michael Bisping facing off against jiu-jitsu ace Thales Leites. Something, as they say, has to give.
But that's just the top of a six-fight main card. Want more info? Riley "Kobra" Kontek, Craig "Cookie" Amos, Sean "The Salmon" Smith, myself (Scott Harris) and our very own resident Scotsman, who will be in attendance for this history, James "The Athlete" MacDonald will break it down for you. Let's get it on.
Stevie Ray vs. Leonardo Mafra
1 of 6
Craig Amos
Leonardo Mafra could win this one with a knockout, but he'll have to avoid being controlled by Stevie Ray to do that. The up-and-coming Scot won't let him escape so easily, though. He'll give his countrymen something to cheer about.
Ray, submission, Round 2
Sean Smith
With a win over Marcin Bandel in his UFC debut, Scotland’s Ray has momentum heading into UFC Fight Night 72, where he’ll also have the home crowd behind him.
Following a loss to Rick Story in his UFC debut, Mafra rebounded nicely against Cain Carrizosa in his latest outing, but Ray should prove to be a step up in competition from an opponent without a UFC win. Ray will get the fans in attendance going with a Scottish win to open up the main card.
Ray, submission, Round 2
Riley Kontek
The first of many tight matchups on this card, Ray-Mafra is a tough one to call. If Mafra makes this a slugfest, he could lure Ray into a potential knockout. If Ray can close the distance, he can dominate Mafra from top position. I will go with home-court advantage here, as Ray will play off his fellow Scotsmen.
Ray, unanimous decision
James MacDonald
This should be a decent fight to kick off the main card. Ray is a well-rounded fighter with potential, so he should have too many tools for the limited Mafra. And in fairness, that’s probably the ideal scenario. Ray will do his part and get the hometown crowd going with an early TKO.
Ray, TKO, Round 1
Scott Harris
There's no way the first fight of the first Scotland card is going the way of a non-Scottish fighter. Mafra's an aggressive slugger, but Ray is more balanced. He'll ride the argyle wave.
Ray, unanimous decision
Leon Edwards vs. Pawel Pawlak
2 of 6
Amos
Both men enter this fight coming off a nice win. Leon Edwards will look to build on his win by maintaining distance and picking Pawel Pawlak apart. Pawlak will try to make it a grind and wear Edwards down. Whoever gets their way will win, plain and simple.
Edwards, unanimous decision
Smith
This should be a fun one between two up-and-coming welterweight prospects. Both slipped up in their UFC debuts before bouncing back for their first UFC wins the last time we saw them. Edwards and Pawlak are both knockout threats, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see this one decided by striking. Coming off of a knockout win over veteran Seth Baczynski, I give Edwards the edge in that area.
Edwards, TKO, Round 2
Kontek
This is going one of two ways. The first way is that Pawlak grinds on Edwards and makes this an ugly war of attrition on the mat. The other way is that Edwards uses superior movement, sticks Pawlak with strikes and points his way past the Pole. I will go with the latter.
Edwards, unanimous decision
MacDonald
This should be a decent scrap, and it's something of a pick ‘em. Both Edwards and Pawlak boast powerful strikes, so this one may come down to who lands clean punches first. And on that basis, I’m leaning toward Edwards.
Edwards, TKO, Round 1
Harris
I'm not going to pretend like this is a sneaky fight between two hot prospects. That's not the case on this one, at least in my humble opinion. Edwards could be in trouble if Pawlak initiates a grappling war, but I think Edwards has the smarts and athleticism to avoid such a thing in this case.
Edwards, unanimous decision
Joanne Calderwood vs. Cortney Casey-Sanchez
3 of 6
Amos
Joanne Calderwood really didn't seem herself when she lost to Maryna Moroz back in April. This is her chance to rebound. Cortney Casey-Sanchez won't be a pushover, but the more experienced Calderwood should take care of business.
Calderwood, TKO, Round 2
Smith
Although Calderwood disappointed in a recent submission loss to Moroz, she remains one of the top fighters in the strawweight division. Meeting Calderwood on short notice as a UFC newcomer, Casey-Sanchez has her hands full. This should be a showcase fight for Calderwood in front of her home crowd in Scotland.
Calderwood, unanimous decision
Kontek
Casey-Sanchez is no doubt a serviceable prospect, but on short notice against Calderwood, getting a win would be a tough feat. Calderwood did get upended by debutant Moroz in her last affair, but Moroz is more advanced than Casey-Sanchez at this point. It will either go to the judges or "Dr. Kneevil" will get a late stoppage.
Calderwood, TKO, Round 3
MacDonald
Calderwood hasn’t quite lived up to her potential, but I remain optimistic about her future if she can plug a few holes in her game. Casey-Sanchez hasn’t exactly had a lot of time to prepare, and she’d likely struggle even with optimal preparation. Calderwood will lean on her superior striking and give the Glasgow crowd something to sing about.
Calderwood, TKO, Round 2
Harris
This is a squash match, pure and simple. They want the Scottish Calderwood, who has badly underwhelmed thus far in the UFC, to whip the faithful into a frenzy. She'll use her world-class Muay Thai to pull that off against an unheralded and seemingly outmatched opponent.
Calderwood, KO, Round 1
Joseph Duffy vs. Ivan Jorge
4 of 6
Amos
Ivan Jorge is powerful and persistent in his pursuit of the submission, but Joseph Duffy has more weapons at his disposal. He'll make use of that versatility and earn his second UFC win.
Duffy, unanimous decision
Smith
With a knockout win over Jake Lindsey in March, Duffy made a strong first impression on UFC fans. Training at the Tristar Gym at 27 years old, Duffy is set up well to develop into a solid lightweight. Jorge has posted a solid 2-1 record inside the Octagon, but the 34-year-old has a limited ceiling and will be in trouble if he can’t take Duffy down early this weekend.
Duffy, KO, Round 1
Kontek
In many scenarios, I can see Jorge winning by just simply grinding on Duffy. That said, I will go with Duffy here. He will sit behind his jab and use superior movement to score points and win a strategical chess match.
Duffy, unanimous decision
MacDonald
I’m on the Duffy bandwagon. He is an outstanding fighter with legitimate championship potential. Jorge is outmatched in this one, and it should be over quickly.
Duffy, KO, Round 1
Harris
I can't believe no one mentioned the elephant in the room. Duffy is the last man to defeat Conor McGregor. Duffy is a very good boxer, but his past record is a large reason why he's here, and it's a large reason why the UFC won't set him up for any chance to lose a fight like this.
Duffy, TKO, Round 2
Ross Pearson vs. Evan Dunham
5 of 6
Amos
Neither Ross Pearson nor Evan Dunham has had much luck finding consistency of late, but Pearson has posted the better results. He'll keep the fight upright and outstrike Dunham.
Pearson, unanimous decision
Smith
Alternating wins and losses over his past five bouts, Pearson has had trouble breaking through and becoming a contender at lightweight. He’ll look to break that trend with a second straight win against Dunham on Saturday. But Dunham, a scrappy fighter with a good ground game, should be able to hold his own when boxing with Pearson and steal a decision with a few takedowns.
Dunham, unanimous decision
Kontek
Dunham's window of opportunity has seemingly passed him, as a few years ago, it looked like he would be a title challenger. Now he just looks like a career top-30 fighter who will stick around the upper-middle part of the division. Pearson, on the other hand, has looked very strong in recent offerings, and will continue that here.
Pearson, unanimous decision
MacDonald
This should be an entertaining, extremely competitive fight. Both men are searching for divisional relevance. Pearson has the crisper striking. However, Dunham is the more well-rounded fighter, and that will be the difference here.
Dunham, unanimous decision
Harris
I don't know who Dunham angered in the UFC corporate offices, but it was someone. He's had dangerous matchup after dangerous matchup going back like five years now. Pearson, a British slugger fighting close to home, just continues that trend. If Dunham can tie him up, he has a chance. But I think it's a pub brawl, and Pearson wins those.
Pearson, unanimous decision
Michael Bisping vs. Thales Leites
6 of 6
Amos
It's tempting to side with Thales Leites, given how superb he's looked since returning to the UFC. But Michael Bisping is a sound technical striker with solid takedown defense. He'll play it smart, keep his distance and win on points.
Bisping, unanimous decision
Smith
One bout removed from a submission loss to Luke Rockhold, my gut reaction was that Bisping would be in trouble against a grappler like Leites. However, I’m not so sure Leites has the wrestling to take Bisping to the ground. I think Bisping will play it safe early on and pull away with his conditioning down the stretch since this marquee contest is scheduled for five rounds.
Bisping, unanimous decision
Kontek
Leites has had an amazing turnaround and comeback, but this is where it hits a roadblock. Bisping is a superior striker, has good enough takedown defense and better cardio. Also consider that he doesn't have to take a long plane ride to Glasgow, he's just going up the road to Scotland. He should look spiffy here.
Bisping, unanimous decision
MacDonald
Leites has come on a ton over the past few years. I’m not sure he has improved enough to take out a quality opponent like Bisping, though. The Brazilian will need to get the fight to the ground, and probably more than once. Bisping’s takedown defence should ultimately hold up and help carry him to a decision.
Bisping, unanimous decision
Harris
One can't help but notice how much better Leites has gotten with his takedowns and his striking. I think that spells the difference. It will be a disappointment to Bisping and his fans, but The Count simply cannot rely solely on his gas tank and athleticism to bail him out. Leites will see that coming. He'll keep Bisping honest on the feet, he'll hit takedowns when he sees the chance, and from there, it's Thales' world.
Leites, unanimous decision
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