Way-Too-Early Predictions for the 2026 Winter Transfer Window
Premier League clubs spent over $4 billion on players in the 2025-26 summer transfer window.
According to Sky Sports' figures, that's nearly $1 billion more than the previous record set in the summer of 2023.
Will that stop clubs from spending in January? Don't count on it.
While the winter window has been a calmer affair in recent years, it's still almost certain that clubs will take the opportunity to bring in fresh blood to meet whatever targets they have for the rest of the campaign when January 2026 comes around.
Although the ink is barely dry on the numerous contracts that were signed on deadline day, let's take a look ahead and make some predictions for how the next transfer window could transpire.
Liverpool Will Return for Marc Guehi
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Liverpool's deadline-day move for Marc Guehi fell at the final hurdle. The defender will stay at Crystal Palace after the Eagles couldn't find a suitable replacement in time.
It would have been the cherry on top of a pretty perfect transfer cake for the Reds, but it wasn't to be. That doesn't mean the deal is dead, though.
The 25-year-old's contract will expire at the end of the season, with an extension looking unlikely. That means Liverpool could sign the England international on a free transfer at the end of the season.
Guehi is said to be bitterly disappointed about the move collapsing at the final hurdle and the likelihood of the Reds returning in January to complete the deal seems pretty high.
Meanwhile, the Merseysiders will need him to bolster the backline ahead of what's expected to be a busy run of fixtures in the second half of the season.
With the late arrival of Alexander Isak in addition to the club's spending on Florian Wirtz, Hugo Ekitike, Jeremie Frimpong, Milos Kerkez and Giovanni Leoni, Liverpool should be competing across all three possible cup competitions well into their respective latter stages while at the same time trying to win their second consecutive Premier League title.
For that, they'll need center back reinforcements. There are question marks surrounding Virgil van Dijk's form, injury worries for Ibrahima Konate and Joe Gomez, and Leoni remains inexperienced.
Instead of waiting for Guehi's arrival on a free, Liverpool will come back to Palace with a cut-price offer to finally make the transfer a reality.
Manchester City Will Go for a Big Fish
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After dropping alarmingly off their usual pace in the first half of last season, Manchester City made a splash in the January transfer market to bring in Omar Marmoush, Nico Gonzalez, Abdukodir Khusanov and Vitor Reis.
That spending helped the Citizens finish the season in third, claiming a crucial Champions League berth in the process. With the club down in seventh near the midway point of the season, it was a welcome resurgence.
But given the club's standards in the last decade-plus, that was still a pretty shocking turn of events.
While it's too early to say something similar will happen after three games of the 2025-26 campaign, City picking up just three points from those fixtures doesn't look like a recipe for success.
Therefore, the January window might be the club's salvation again. After watching Liverpool drop over $500 million in the summer window, the club will be emboldened to open up the transfer chest and flash some cash to grab a big name.
But what players would be available? Real Madrid's Rodrygo could be an option after falling out of favor at Real Madrid, while Paris Saint-Germain might be a good hunting ground for stars looking to take a step up in domestic football terms.
Either way, City will invest in January.
Bruno Fernandes Will End His Manchester United Misery
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Of the big players who have signed for Manchester United since the turn of the decade, you could probably count the successful arrivals on one finger.
Bruno Fernandes' transfer from Sporting CP has been a brilliant, vital signing for the club, although the Portuguese will not be pleased with how it has gone on a personal level in terms of silverware.
Coming up to nearly five years of service for the club, the 30-year-old has just one FA Cup title and a Carabao Cup winners' medal to show for it.
For a player who has scored 99 goals and provided 86 assists in 294 games across all competitions, that's a really disappointing return.
United have already lost one chance of silverware after exiting the Carabao Cup in the second round, and they won't be playing in any European competition. That leaves just two potential trophies up for grabs, and with the way the Red Devils are playing, it would take a miracle to get even close to one of them.
Despite being the club's captain, Fernandes will be getting increasingly impatient in Manchester, and he's running out of chances to add to his trophy cabinet in the final years of his career.
In January, he'll be pushing for a move elsewhere, and United might be wise to capitalize now and use the funds to continue their long rebuilding process.
Newcastle United Will Invest in the Squad
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"Turbulent" is a good word to describe Newcastle United's summer transfer window.
The Magpies dug in their talons to try to keep their best player at the club, but with every passing week, it became apparent that a sale was the only option.
But Alexander Isak's departure did net the club a hefty, British-record transfer fee of close to $170 million.
They used most of that total to bring in Nick Woltemade from Stuttgart and Yoane Wissa from Brentford, but it's debatable whether the pair can make up for the goals and talent that left with the Sweden international.
With that in mind, they might look at the January window as an opportunity to bring in another star. They will be in the midst of a European campaign, and depending on how they fare in the Champions League's League Phase, another player or two could be the difference between qualifying for the knockouts and exiting the competition at the first hurdle.
The north-east side had prior complications with Profitability and Sustainability Rules, but the fee received for Isak should lighten those restrictions somewhat. That should allow the Magpies to invest, and January could be the perfect time to do so.
Arsenal Will Keep It Low-key
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While Liverpool broke the record for the most money spent by a club in a single transfer window ($597 million), Arsenal were also loose with the purse strings, seeing over $350 million leave their account.
It's hard to argue with the Gunners' business, with nearly all the signings addressing key squad needs and providing much-needed upgrades in a couple of positions.
But Arsenal's net spend was actually much higher than Liverpool's. According to Sky Sports, the Gunners' total outlay when taking outgoings into account was $343 million, while Liverpool's impressive squad clearout knocked the net spend down to around $291 million.
What's more, the outlet observed that the London side have spent around $1.33 billion in the last five years, the third-highest total behind Manchester United and Chelsea.
With that in mind, they might have to dial things down a bit. That shouldn't be a problem, with Arsenal's summer business being exceptional and surely setting them up well for the next few years. But that won't stop fans from calling for reinforcements if silverware looks likely.
Real Madrid Will Cash-In on a Veteran Defender
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It's been a summer of change at Real Madrid, with Xabi Alonso taking charge and implementing his vision.
With a new manager comes a change in approach, and inevitably, some players simply won't suit the shift in dynamic.
While Rodrygo is perhaps the most notable omission from two of the first three starting XIs in the opening La Liga fixtures, there's also been a changing of the guard in defense.
Trent Alexander-Arnold, Dean Huijsen, and Alvaro Carreras have all taken the spots of veteran stars for at least two games. Antonio Rudiger and Dani Carvajal have started just once, and David Alaba and Fran Garcia are yet to even make an appearance.
Rudiger and Alaba look the most likely to take their well-honed talents elsewhere. While neither should command a hefty fee at 32 and 33 years old, respectively, they still have plenty to offer, and they'll want to make the most of their final playing years.
There's something to be said for sticking around, mentoring young players and adding some silverware to the trophy cabinet. But for two seasoned professionals, the lack of game time might be difficult to accept.
