Predictions for NBA's Top 10 Free Agents Still Available
NBA training camps will begin in about a month, and while most rosters are nearing completion, several high-level free agents remain unsigned.
Some are stuck in negotiations—primarily the top-four restricted free agents—unable to find a team capable of issuing a quality offer sheet. Limited cap space this offseason put many free agents in low-leverage situations.
Many of the Top 25 (dating back to early July) have come off the board.
The following is a list of the top 10 remaining unsigned free agents and their potential landing spots.
Honorable Mention: Malik Beasley
1 of 11
Team: Detroit Pistons
Prior: No. 25
2024-25 Salary: $6 million
Rights: Non-Bird
Beasley stood out as one of the top available free-agent shooters, but a federal gambling probe derailed his summer. His attorneys recently told ESPN's Shams Charania that the 28-year-old is not a target of the investigation.
That may be the case, but teams remain wary Beasley's conduct could still violate NBA regulations, regardless of government findings.
The 2016 first-rounder was an essential part of the Pistons' resurgence last year. If he is truly in the clear, he may return.
Prediction: Beasley may have a few suitors at the minimum, but Detroit makes too much sense, as the team isn't near the luxury-tax threshold, has a roster spot and can pay him up to $7.2 million.
No. 10: Malcolm Brogdon
2 of 11
Team: Washington Wizards
Prior: No. 10
2024-25 Salary: $22.5 million
Rights: Full Bird
Malcolm Brogdon is an experienced veteran guard who can defend and shoot, but he has struggled to stay healthy throughout much of his career.
The Wizards are going with a young roster, but they also acquired CJ McCollum via trade and have no practical need for Brogdon.
Several teams could use help at guard, such as the Minnesota Timberwolves, Golden State Warriors, Sacramento Kings and New York Knicks.
Prediction: Brogdon joins the Timberwolves, giving support behind Mike Conley.
No. 9: De'Anthony Melton
3 of 11
Team: Brooklyn Nets
Prior: No. 14
2024-25 Salary: $12.8 million
Rights: Non-Bird
The Warriors have had a near-dormant offseason thus far, with no signings or deals outside of picking up Alex Toohey (No. 52) and Will Richard (No. 56) in the draft (via trade).
The primary holdup has been the unresolved status of restricted free agent Jonathan Kuminga.
That decision will impact how Golden State fills out its roster, which currently has only nine players under standard contract.
Expect the Warriors to sign 5-6 more in September.
Prediction: Several agents and competing executives believe De'Anthony Melton already has a deal to return to the Warriors.
No. 8: Gary Payton II
4 of 11
Team: Golden State Warriors
Prior: No. 12
2024-25 Salary: $9.1 million
Rights: Full Bird
Gary Payton II is a tremendous complement to Steph Curry on the Warriors, taking on the more challenging defensive assignments in the backcourt. He's not a great shooter, but he can score with his athleticism.
Coach Steve Kerr trusts him, and while he may need to take a pay cut from last year's $9.2 million to stay, that seems inevitable.
Prediction: Like De'Anthony Melton, many around the league believe Payton will re-sign shortly with Golden State.
No. 7: Ben Simmons
5 of 11
Team: LA Clippers
Prior: No. 11
2024-25 Salary: $1.1 million
Rights: Non-Bird
Simmons took a buyout from the Brooklyn Nets last season, joining the Los Angeles Clippers for their playoff run.
While he contributed during his time in L.A., the team opted for Chris Paul, Brook Lopez and others in free agency, apparently moving on from the 29-year-old.
Simmons is a versatile defender and playmaker, though his lack of three-point shooting limits some fits. Multiple teams are potential destinations, as B/R recently noted.
Prediction: The Sacramento Kings are a viable option, but pencil in Simmons for the New York Knicks on a minimum deal.
No. 6: Russell Westbrook
6 of 11
Team: Denver Nuggets
Prior: No. 7
2024-25 Salary: $3.3 million
Rights: Non-Bird
The Nuggets changed direction after one season with Russell Westbrook (actually shifting before the end of the year, firing head coach Mike Malone and basketball executive Calvin Booth).
The team has since acquired Cam Johnson, Jonas Valančiūnas, Tim Hardaway Jr. and Bruce Brown. Denver still has room to sign Westbrook, but it doesn't appear inclined to do so.
The Sacramento Kings stand out as his obvious next home, as they need a point guard to back up Dennis Schröder.
Prediction: Westbrook signs a two-year minimum deal with a player option in Sacramento.
No. 5: Al Horford
7 of 11
Team: Boston Celtics
Prior: No. 5
2024-25 Salary: $9.5 million
Rights: Full Bird
The Celtics have pivoted away from contending this season, with Jayson Tatum sidelined due to an Achilles injury. Al Horford was a valued part of Boston's championship run, but his time with the team appears to be over.
There is speculation the 39-year-old will join the Warriors, though the size of his potential contract remains unclear.
Prediction: Horford signs with the Warriors on a two-year minimum deal (player option on the second season), paying $3.6 million for 2025-26.
No. 4: Cam Thomas
8 of 11
Team: Brooklyn Nets
Prior: No. 4
2024-25 Salary: $4.0 million
Rights: Full Bird (restricted)
The Nets were the only team this summer with substantial cap space, which hasn't helped Cam Thomas find an offer sheet from a competing franchise.
The Milwaukee Bucks and Memphis Grizzlies both chose to operate under the cap, with specific targets (signing Myles Turner and renegotiating Jaren Jackson Jr.'s deal). With no one else capable of paying Thomas the over-$20-million-a-season contract he'd like, he's been entirely reliant on Brooklyn.
Unfortunately for the 23-year-old, the team is setting up for a rebuild and doesn't appear to have any interest in giving him a lucrative deal at this time.
Prediction: Thomas ends up stuck taking his $6 million qualifying offer for the 2025-26 season.
No. 3: Jonathan Kuminga
9 of 11
Team: Golden State Warriors
Prior: No. 3
2024-25 Salary: $7.6 million
Rights: Full Bird (restricted)
Jonathan Kuminga, considered the trickiest free agent to evaluate, is reportedly seeking a higher annual salary—closer to $30 million per year—while the Warriors have offered a two-year, $45 million deal with a team option in the second year.
While the 22-year-old can take his $8 million qualifying offer to become an unrestricted free agent next summer, he'd lose about $14 million this season. He's unlikely to make up that money initially as a free agent in 2026-27.
Over time, if everything goes perfectly, Kuminga could justifiably turn down the two-year offer. Unfortunately, rarely in life does everything go to perfection.
Prediction: The Warriors don't budge, and Kuminga ends up taking the offer he doesn't like, which is probably the best decision he can make under the circumstances.
No. 2: Quentin Grimes
10 of 11
Team: Philadelphia 76ers
Prior: No. 2
2024-25 Salary: $4.3 million
Rights: Full Bird (restricted)
The Sixers currently have 14 rostered players, totaling nearly $542,000 over the luxury-tax threshold.
The team has been mindful of taxes in recent years; paying Quentin Grimes would initially come with that additional financial commitment. That's a big step for a team that was not a viable playoff contender last season.
The Sixers will have a better sense of Joel Embiid and Paul George's health as training camps pick up, but Grimes needs a deal. The 25-year-old is unlikely to get more than the non-taxpayer mid-level exception ($14.1 million starting), so the team appears to be hesitant to offer more than that amount.
Philadelphia could look to make trades later in the year to get under the tax, but Kelly Oubre Jr. and Andre Drummond combine to earn $13.4 million. Can the team confidently meet that salary target by the deadline?
Prediction: The Sixers may limit Grimes' starting salary to $12.5 million, with an eye on the luxury tax. Perhaps he's willing to take that figure on a short-term deal (two or three years); if not, perhaps he will accept his $8.7 million qualifying offer.
No. 1: Josh Giddey
11 of 11
Team: Chicago Bulls
Prior: No. 1
2024-25 Salary: $8.4 million
Rights: Full Bird (restricted)
The Bulls appear to believe they hold all the leverage with Josh Giddey, offering a contract thought to be in the $80 million range over four seasons. The team seems to think that's too much for him to reject to take a one-year, $11.1 million qualifying offer.
The 22-year-old could risk a one-year qualifying offer and hope for a breakout season, but history suggests such gambles rarely pay the desired dividends in the NBA.
The stalemate may resolve soon, but it's challenging to see Giddey landing anywhere else this coming season outside of Chicago.
Prediction: If Giddey can get the Bulls to make the fourth year a player option, he should take the deal on the table. Chicago may not be willing, and that may still be the best choice he can make.
Email Eric Pincus at eric.pincus@gmail.com and follow him on X @EricPincus and Bluesky.
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