Stock Up, Stock Down For MLB's Biggest Upcoming Free Agents
With the MLB trade deadline in the past, player movement won't really start again until the free-agent market opens after the World Series. And those who would cash in are running out of time to make their case.
So, how are they doing?
Let's play a game of "Stock Up, Stock Down" with the 10 biggest free agents set to hit the 2025-26 market with no strings attached. This excludes players with options and opt-outs, such as Alex Bregman, Pete Alonso and Cody Bellinger. That's a topic for another day.
As for the players who are on the list, these assessments are mainly focused on current events. Whether they're hot or cold matters just as much as what they have done throughout the 2025 season.
First, let's start with some honorable mentions.
Honorable Mentions
1 of 11
RHP Michael King, San Diego Padres: Down
King, who has a $15 million mutual option for 2026, has posted a 2.81 ERA in 11 starts, but 10 of those came before he missed three months with a thoracic nerve issue. Even if he remains on the mound for the rest of the season, his stock may remain down accordingly.
CF Cedric Mullins, New York Mets: Down
Mullins has mostly been an OK regular since his 30-30 breakout in 2021, but he's been worth only 0.3 rWAR this year. Poor defensive ratings aren't helping, nor is the fact that he has a .670 OPS since June 19.
C J.T. Realmuto, Philadelphia Phillies: Up
This hasn't been a good year for Realmuto on the whole, as his OPS+ is below average for the first time since 2015. But he is on an upswing with a .339 average since July 2, so he may yet finish with a more or less standard season.
LHP Ranger Suárez, Philadelphia Phillies: Up
Suárez missed the first month of the year because of a back injury, and then gave up seven runs in his season debut. His 16 starts since then have yielded a 2.44 ERA, mostly courtesy of a hard-hit rate in the 99th percentile. Health permitting, he'll resemble a reliable mid-rotation guy as a free agent.
RHP Brandon Woodruff, Milwaukee Brewers: Up
It took close to two years for Woodruff to return from shoulder surgery, and his fastball is down 2.6 mph from its 2023 average. He has nonetheless managed to post a 2.29 ERA with 45 strikeouts over 35.1 innings in six starts, so his 2026 mutual option may be as good as declined on his part.
10. RHP Devin Williams, New York Yankees: Down
2 of 11
Age: 30
2025 Stats: 49 G, 45.0 IP, 35 H (5 HR), 59 K, 19 BB, 5.60 ERA
Agency: Klutch Sports Group
What's Going Wrong
Williams' track record remains the same, and thus remains impressive on account of his NL Rookie of the Year from 2020 and All-Star nods in 2022 and 2023.
And yet, few (if any) pending free agents have crushed their stock as much as he has. It would seem Pete Alonso has done to him what Albert Pujols once did to Brad Lidge, as Williams has already given up more runs this year than he did across 2022, 2023 and 2024 combined.
He has lost close to 1 mph off both his changeup and his fastball, with the former also having lost about 14 percentage points off its whiff rate relative to last season.
Williams has also given up all five of his homers on the changeup, which had previously been taken deep just six times through 2024.
What Will He Get Paid?
Well, you can probably rule out Williams joining Edwin Díaz and Josh Hader in the neighborhood for $100 million closers. He'll be a candidate for a one-year "prove it" contract, albeit for something in the eight-figure range.
9. 1B Luis Arraez, San Diego Padres: Down
3 of 11
Age: 28
2025 Stats: 113 G, 499 PA, 6 HR, 5 SB, .292 AVG, .328 OBP, .398 SLG
Agency: MVP Sports Group
What's Going Wrong
Luis Arraez is going to need a major surge if he wants to win a fourth straight batting title, but let's be clear that his usual strengths are still there.
He is leading all hitters in both strikeout rate (2.6 percent) and overall contact rate (96.4 percent). This is also going to be his seventh straight season with a line-drive percentage of at least 25.0, whereas the league average is 19.7 percent.
Shockingly, though, Arraez has only had one month in which he hit over .300. And even by his standards, an average exit velocity of 85.6 mph is dangerously low. Even he sat north of 88 mph for three years in a row between 2021 and 2023.
What Will He Get Paid?
As Arraez doesn't hit for power, steal bases or play good defense, it will be interesting to see how much teams value his ability to put the ball in play. Given he's probably overpaid even with a $14 million salary this year, don't be surprised if even a multi-year deal lands him well short of $100 million.
8. RHP Zac Gallen, Arizona Diamondbacks: Down
4 of 11
Age: 30
2025 Stats: 24 GS, 139.0 IP, 138 H (23 HR), 130 K, 50 BB, 5.31 ERA
Agency: Boras Corporation
What's Going Wrong
Two years ago, Zac Gallen was an All-Star, a Cy Young Award finalist and a rock in the Diamondbacks' playoff rotation. That's a lot of goodwill to ruin.
He's mostly managed to do so, though. He posted an ERA over 5.00 in each of this season's first four months, with his biggest problem being a career-high rate of 1.5 home runs per nine innings. He just hasn't been fooling anyone.
When one goes looking for signs of life under the hood, one does see Gallen's fastball velocity is steady at 93.4 mph and his knuckle-curveball is still racking up whiffs (41.7 percent). At a certain point, though, the results have to be there.
What Will He Get Paid?
Gallen only just turned 30 on August 3, and pitching is always in demand. He is therefore a solid bet to land a multi-year deal worth eight figures annually even if he doesn't turn things around the rest of the way, even if it means making like Lucas Giolito and accepting a two-year deal with an opt-out after the first year.
7. 3B Eugenio Suárez, Seattle Mariners: Down
5 of 11
Age: 34
2025 Stats: 116 G, 478 PA, 37 HR, 2 SB, .235 AVG, .305 OBP, .544 SLG
Agency: Octagon
What's Going Wrong
Before anyone flips out, this is meant to imply Eugenio Suárez's stock is down from where it was a few weeks ago.
He does still have 37 home runs, after all, not to mention 57 total since last year's All-Star break. Only four hitters have gone deep more often since then, and that list consists of two MVPs (Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani) and one MVP contender who is now his teammate (Cal Raleigh).
And yet, Suárez is only batting .111 with one home run and 27 strikeouts over his last 17 games. Given his age and profile as a bat-first corner infielder with swing-and-miss issues, a slump like that casts an unusually ominous shadow.
What Will He Get Paid?
Even with his age and limited profile, Suárez should be able to find a multi-year deal worth eight figures annually. As he was also a free agent after his age-33 season, Christian Walker's three-year, $60 million contract could be an achievable price point.
6. 1B Josh Naylor, Seattle Mariners: Up
6 of 11
Age: 28
2025 Stats: 108 G, 453 PA, 15 HR, 22 SB, .292 AVG, .360 OBP, .464 SLG
Agency: ISE Baseball
What's Going Right
Josh Naylor is four years into a run in which his OPS+ has consistently sat in the 120-130 range, which is pretty good even for a first baseman.
He's also becoming a more complete ballplayer seemingly by the day in 2025. He is notably 22-for-24 stealing bases despite sprint speed in the third percentile, all while he's continued to balance above-average power with a well-below-average strikeout rate of 13.7 percent.
Further, having joined the Mariners for the pennant race has clearly agreed with Naylor. He has a .939 OPS in 15 games with them, and he has likewise made his mark on the team's clubhouse culture.
What Will He Get Paid?
First base has become a difficult position at which to make a buck, but Naylor's situation will be helped by his ineligibility for a qualifying offer. He might have a shot at Kyle Schwarber's four-year, $79 million deal from four years ago, with an outside chance at nine figures.
5. DH Kyle Schwarber, Philadelphia Phillies: Up
7 of 11
Age: 32
2025 Stats: 118 G, 524 PA, 42 HR, 10 SB, .252 AVG, .376 OBP, .584 SLG
Agency: Excel Sports Management
What's Going Right
Kyle Schwarber was a good hitter before he came to Philadelphia, but he's now pretty much the idealized version of himself after four years as a Phillie.
Basically all of his key power indicators (i.e., exit velocity, barrels and xSLG) are around the 100th percentile, and he still draws plenty of walks. The real difference from a couple of years ago is that he's less prone to striking out, as his 26.7 K% is now perfectly acceptable for such a powerful hitter.
This is also the most consistent Schwarber has been in a season. Save for when he had a .756 OPS in June, his OPS has been north of .900 on a monthly basis in 2025.
What Will He Get Paid?
Schwarber is still young for a guy who's been in the majors for 11 years, so interested teams may be willing to overlook that he has a bat-only profile. He could at least match the three-year, $66 million deal Teoscar Hernández got last winter, and he could even exceed the $79 million guarantee from his last trip to free agency.
4. RHP Dylan Cease, San Diego Padres: Down
8 of 11
Age: 29
2025 Stats: 24 GS, 129.1 IP, 116 H (17 HR), 169 K, 50 BB, 4.52 ERA
Agency: Boras Corporation
What's Going Wrong
Dylan Cease is still doing what he does best, which is miss a whole bunch of bats. His whiff rate is in the 96th percentile, and he leads MLB with a rate of 11.8 strikeouts per nine innings.
As usual, though, his strikeouts come with walks (3.5 per nine) and high pitch counts that limit his average workload to 5.4 innings. He's also been getting hit hard with a career-high barrel rate of 10.1 percent.
His slider remains one of the most effective weapons in the league, but even increased velocity (97.2 mph) hasn't helped his fastball. Per its minus-one Run Value, it has actually done more harm than good in 2025.
What Will He Get Paid?
A $200 million contract might have been a possibility for Cease once, but he's probably looking at something in the $100 million range now. A good contract model for a talented, yet volatile starter is the six-year, $162 million pact Carlos Rodón (another Boras client) signed after the 2022 season.
3. LHP Framber Valdez, Houston Astros: Up
9 of 11
Age: 31
2025 Stats: 23 GS, 145.2 IP, 120 H (8 HR), 145 K, 49 BB, 2.97 ERA
Agency: Octagon
What's Going Right
To be fair, Framber Valdez has gotten tagged in the two starts he's made in August. These have totaled 11.2 innings, and he's given up 10 runs (nine earned) on 15 hits and five walks.
Still, his ERA has been closely tethered to the 3.00 threshold for five seasons at this point. And it's always the same story, primarily consisting of just enough strikes and tons of ground balls. He's induced 292 more than any other lefty since 2021.
Though we said the same thing about Corbin Burnes, Valdez also has a cleaner injury history than most starting pitchers. Apart from a scare with elbow soreness last year, he notably hasn't had any issues with his arm.
What Will He Get Paid?
ESPN's Jeff Passan submitted Valdez as a candidate for a $100 million deal in May, and Spotrac even puts his market value at $209 million over six years. The latter is probably a reach, but he can at least chase after Aaron Nola's seven-year, $175 million standard for a durable pitcher in his early 30s.
2. SS Bo Bichette, Toronto Blue Jays: Up
10 of 11
Age: 27
2025 Stats: 116 G, 527 PA, 16 HR, 4 SB, .298 AVG, .338 OBP, .470 SLG
Agency: VaynerSports
What's Going Right
After he battled leg injuries in the back half of 2023 and for most of 2024, the key difference with Bo Bichette in 2025 is simply that he's healthy.
As such, it perhaps shouldn't be the biggest surprise that his numbers are right in line with his career norms. If he stays on his current trajectory, he's going to end up leading the American League in hits for a third time in five seasons.
The catch with Bichette has been—and still is—that he's not much of a defender at shortstop. If anything, though, his bat is only getting more appealing. Since the calendar flipped to July, he's hit .362 with 29 runs batted in across 33 games.
What Will He Get Paid?
Between the lows of the last two seasons and his questionable defense at short, Bichette probably isn't in line for a mega-contract worth, say, $300-plus million. But Willy Adames' seven-year, $182 million deal should be within reach, and it's a short hop between there and $200 million.
1. RF Kyle Tucker, Chicago Cubs: Down
11 of 11
Age: 28
2025 Stats: 114 G, 505 PA, 18 HR, 24 SB, .271 AVG, .384 OBP, .469 SLG
Agency: Excel Sports Management
What's Going Wrong
There isn't any question Kyle Tucker is the No. 1 player on the upcoming free-agent market. He's an All-Star, Gold Glover and World Series champion who has averaged 6.4 rWAR per 162 games since 2021.
Yet he is also undeniably cold right now, having hit just .215 with one home run since the start of July. He says the finger injury he sustained in June is fine, but you have to wonder if compensating for it has created some bad habits.
On the plus side, Tucker's Baseball Savant profile is mostly still a wall of red bars. Especially in light of his youth and track record, interested parties are likely to keep this top of mind when he enters free agency.
What Will He Get Paid?
There is some belief Tucker will end up scoring a contract worth upwards of $600 million, but the more practical bar seems to be set at the $400 million threshold. That would be historic in its own right, as there has never been a contract in the $400-699 million range signed by a free agent.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
