B/R Staff Predictions for the UFC 319 Main Card

This Saturday's UFC 319 card in Chicago is easily one of the promotion's best of the year so far.

In the main event, South Africa's Dricus Du Plessis will seek a third defense of his middleweight title opposite the undefeated Khamzat Chimaev. It's one of the biggest fights the UFC could make right now, and one that is rife with pound-for-pound implications.

That's unfortunately the only title fight on the bill, but there's plenty more to look forward to.

In the co-main event, former Bellator standout Aaron Pico will make his UFC debut opposite Lerone Murphy, one of the top featherweights in the world right now. It's a huge opportunity for Pico, who will be looking to succeed where other Bellator stars like Patchy Mix and Patricio Freire failed by winning his UFC debut.

Earlier on the main card, we'll get a fan-friendly welterweight clash, as ranked knockout artists Geoff Neal and Carlos Prates collide, and before that, a compelling middleweight showdown between Michael "Venom" Page and Jared Cannonier. The main card opener, finally, will see former flyweight title challenger Tim Elliott take on former RIZIN champ Kai Asakura in an early frontrunner for Fight of the Night honors.

Here's how the B/R combat sports squad sees it all going down this Saturday in Chicago.

Tim Elliott vs. Kai Asakura

Cooper Neill/Zuffa LLC

Tom Taylor: I’m still aboard the Kai Asakura hype train, despite his failed bid against Alexandre Pantoja in his UFC debut last year. Provided he stays out of trouble on the ground, I think he should spend most of his time in the Octagon peppering Elliott with power shots. He may not be able to finish his opponent, who has always been very durable, but it will be enough to set up a comfortable decision—and his first UFC victory. 

Prediction: Asakura by unanimous decision

Lyle Fitzsimmons: It’s a precipitous drop in prestige for Asakura, who debuted with the company in a title match last December and is back here with an 11th-ranked contender who’s seven up, seven down in his second run after going 2-4 in a first go-round. Gotta think the younger man will piece him up and legitimize a place in the top 10.

Prediction: Asakura by TKO, Round 2

Nick Akerman: Like the other guys, I’m with Asakura on this one. I’m expecting a pretty straightforward reminder of why there’s a decent expectation on the Japanese fighter as he settles into the organisation. It’s one of those fights where you don’t want to think ‘what if he loses?’ Asakura needs the win and a dominant performance.

Prediction: Asakura by TKO, Round 1

Jared Cannonier vs. Michael Page

Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

Tom Taylor: This is such a weird fight. On the one hand, I can see the former heavyweight Jared Cannonier manhandling the career welterweight Michael Page in the clinch and on the ground. On the other hand, I can see Page sharpshooting a bigger, slower opponent with devastating consequences. Considering how much damage Cannonier has taken in his recent career and the fact that he seems to be less and less durable, I’ll go with the latter.

Prediction: Page by KO, Rd. 2

Lyle Fitzsimmons: Maybe it’s me, but I’ve not caught the “Venom” vibe since the now-38-year-old Brit arrived after a long, successful run with Bellator. He’s won two of three and has been impressive in spots but forgettable in others. Cannonier is no Hall of Famer himself, but he’s been successful on the second tier and sturdy amongst the top guys. Good enough for me.

Prediction: Cannonier by split decision

Nick Akerman: MVP gets endless doubters whenever he steps into a fight. He’s too flashy. He’s too easy to grab hold of. It’s always the same. I don’t think I’ve seen a more entertaining fighter be as belittled as he has across his career. When it’s all said and done, I think people will value him more for what he is: one of the most watchable contenders of the generation.

I think we’ll see this again when he steps in to face Cannonier, who is too slow and heavy to solve the speed of Page’s sniper precision. He’ll probably get MVP to the mat at some point. I don’t think he’s got enough to finish it there and will ultimately succumb to the tap-tap of Page’s ability to rack up round scoring. 

Prediction: Page by unanimous decision

Geoff Neal vs. Carlos Prates

Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

Tom Taylor: Carlos Prates lost some hype when he suffered a decision defeat to Ian Machado Garry earlier this year. I think he’ll get back on track in style against Neal, who will be more than happy to participate in a striking battle, and isn’t technical enough to do what Garry did. Neal’s knockout power will make any big exchanges interesting, but I expect he’ll be the one hitting the deck—and likely early on.  

Prediction: Prates by KO, Rd. 1

Lyle Fitzsimmons: It’s a bounce-back opportunity for the Fighting Nerd, who’d won four straight since a Contender Series debut until running into Ian Machado Garry. Neal is no soft touch at age 34, but he’s not fared as well against the young guys lately and seems the appropriate litmus test for Prates to prove he belongs in the welterweight mix.

Prediction: Prates by unanimous decision

Nick Akerman: If Neal fights fire with fire, I think he’s gone early in this one. Prates is super dangerous and this is the perfect opportunity for him to rekindle a little of that hype lost in the Garry bout. I’m calling Fight of the Night; ending with Neal looking up at the stars after a strong opening.

Prediction: Prates via 2nd round TKO.

Lerone Murphy vs. Aaron Pico

Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC

Tom Taylor: I have seen Aaron Pico lose enough times to have lost a lot of confidence in him. Truth be told, I think he will have a very hard time against several top UFC featherweights—particularly those with strong takedown defense and knockout power, such as Jean Silva, Diego Lopes, and Josh Emmett. Luckily for him, Murphy doesn’t quite meet that description. While he is a solid grappler, he’s been taken down multiple times in several UFC fights. That includes his wins over Emmett, Gabriel Silva, and Makwan Amirkhani, all of whom got him to the mat at least four times, and his draw with Zubaira Tukhogov, who took him down six times. He’s also only finished two of his eight UFC wins by KO, so he’s hardly a prolific knockout artist. 

In my mind, Pico’s round one takedowns will set him up for a knockout win in round two. Murphy has never been stopped by strikes before, but he has been dropped twice in the UFC, so it’s very possible.  

Prediction: Pico by KO, Rd. 2

Lyle Fitzsimmons: Maybe it’s a Pitbull hangover, but you’ll have to forgive me for not salivating over the idea of a long-time Bellator star invading the UFC’s featherweight ranks. That said, Pico does arrive with an impressive enough record that includes nine KOs in 13 wins, so the presumption is he’ll do enough to handle Murphy, who’s unbeaten but hardly transcendent.

Prediction: Pico by unanimous decision

Nick Akerman: Do we really think Aaron Pico is going to end Lerone Murphy’s 17-fight unbeaten streak? 

Alright, it’s not the world’s greatest unbeaten streak, but it at least includes some dangerous names in Josh Emmett, Dan Ige and Edson Barboza. Pico has beaten an old Henry Corrales and guys who have nearly as many wins as losses. 

Murphy is no stud, but his baseline is higher than Pico’s and he’s tough enough to add another win against a fighter who isn’t built for a long career in the UFC.

Prediction: Murphy by unanimous decision.

Dricus Du Plessis vs. Khamzat Chimaev

Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

Tom Taylor: This is just one of those fights I have a feeling about. I understand the hype around Khamzat Chimaev right now, but I really think Dricus du Plessis is going to dominate him.

Chimaev is at his best when he can impose his will in a fight, and I just don’t see Du Plessis letting that happen. He’s at least as big as Chimaev, likely even stronger, and also extremely skillful—despite how clumsy he sometimes looks in the Octagon. I see the challenger attempting to do what he always does: crowding his opponent and charging in for a takedown sometime early in round one. This time, however, I think he’s going to run into a wall, and it’s not going to get any easier to manhandle Du Plessis as the fight goes on. After surviving Chimaev’s initial assault, the champion takes complete control of this fight and finishes his tiring foe with strikes in the third or fourth round.  

Prediction: Du Plessis by TKO, Rd. 3 

Lyle Fitzsimmons: Chimaev’s never lost anywhere, and he’s never been significantly close to doing so in the UFC, so neither a first-round blowout nor a punishing two- or three-round beatdown will be all that surprising. But I’m also remembering him slowing down late against Gilbert Burns and Kamaru Usman, so a hunch is forming that Du Plessis will find a way to survive through 15 minutes and feast on a gasping “Borz” down the stretch.

Prediction: Du Plessis by TKO, Round 5

Nick Akerman: I’m really conflicted on this because it seems somewhat crazy for Khamzat to go 0/3 across our predictions as a group. Even so, my gut is leaning Du Plessis, whose much tighter showing in the rematch with Sean Strickland pointed towards a man who is constantly getting better and thoughtfully thinking about his challengers. 

The general consensus that Du Plessis will come on stronger as the rounds age is valid on the evidence we have, although I do think Khamzat will have worked extremely hard to limit his drop off. He operates too quickly and is too strong for most opponents. Du Plessis has the guile and physicality to nullify that and I think he’ll just about grind out a decision after surviving some super dangerous moments on his back.

Prediction: Du Plessis by split decision.