MLB Predictions for Final 2 Months of 2025 Season
With the MLB trade deadline in the rearview mirror, we've reached the dog days of summer and the stretch run of the 2025 regular season.
This time of year, there's a mixture of award watches and pennant races. What more could you want?
With all that in mind, here are some bold predictions for the final two months of the 2025 regular season.
A DH will win NL MVP for the second year in a row
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A year ago, Shohei Ohtani became the first full-time DH to win an MVP. It was particularly ironic for the National League–which only adopted the DH on a permanent basis in 2022—to produce the first MVP from the position.
Ohtani isn't stealing bases at the same clip he did a year ago, but the two-way superstar is once again pitching, albeit in short spurts. Ohtani—who didn't pitch at all last season as he recovered from his second major elbow surgery—has a 2.37 ERA and 25 strikeouts in 19 innings on the mound this year.
Ultimately, though, it's going to be Ohtani's bat that determines whether he repeats as NL MVP. Per Baseball Reference, Ohtani leads the senior circuit in runs scored, slugging percentage, OPS, OPS+ and total bases. That leads you to believe there's a good chance Ohtani takes home the 2025 NL MVP, which would make him just the second player to win four MVPs in MLB history (Barry Bonds won seven).
Not only is Ohtani the favorite for NL MVP, but Kyle Schwarber—who has played just 58 innings in left field this year—is another serious candidate for the honor. Schwarber is putting together the best season of his career, as he leads the all of baseball with 94 RBI, and has an NL-best 40 home runs.
Cristopher Sánchez will finish higher in NL Cy Young voting than Zack Wheeler
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Paul Skenes of the Pittsburgh Pirates is the favorite to win the NL Cy Young Award, as he's leading senior circuit starters in ERA, ERA+, FIP, H/9, HR/9 and WAR, per FanGraphs.
Logan Webb of the San Francisco Giants and Yoshinobu Yamamoto of the Los Angeles Dodgers deserve a mention, but if anyone is going to catch Skenes, it might be one of the two aces on the Philadelphia Phillies—Zack Wheeler and Cristopher Sánchez.
Wheeler has twice finished as the runner-up in NL Cy Young Award voting, including a year ago. He was an All-Star for the third time this season, and does currently have the top marks among NL starters in strikeouts and WHIP.
With that said, Wheeler has a 4.58 ERA in three starts since the All-Star Break, and had his latest start pushed back after experiencing shoulder discomfort. All imaging done on Wheeler's right shoulder came back clean, but it's still worth monitoring, particularly considering Wheeler is 35.
Meanwhile, Sánchez was about as big of an All-Star snub as there was. He's made up for it by throwing eight or more innings in two of his first three starts in the second half, including a complete-game against the Boston Red Sox on July 22. Sánchez has taken over the lead in Baseball Reference's calculation of WAR, and is in the top five among NL starters in ERA, FIP, HR/9, quality starts and innings pitched.
The guess here is that Skenes will win the NL Cy Young. But it may very well be Sánchez who earns the second-place finish.
The Mariners will win the AL West
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Do the Mariners finally have enough offense to take advantage of their tremendous pitching? Assuming the shoulder soreness that caused Josh Naylor to leave Thursday's win over the Chicago White Sox isn't anything major, they might.
In addition to acquiring Naylor from the Diamondbacks, Seattle president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto also reacquired Eugenio Suárez from Arizona. Suárez is putting together a monster campaign, having homered 37 times and driven in 90 runs this year.
Naylor and Dipoto joined a lineup where Cal Raleigh is having a historic season, Randy Arozarena is probably going to homer 30 times and Julio Rodríguez had an .850 OPS since the All-Star Break. This offense might good, not just good enough.
Of course, the M's still have tremendous starting pitching with Logan Gilbert, Bryan Woo, Luis Castillo and George Kirby, and one of the game's elite closers in Andrés Muñoz.
Right now, the Mariners are in control of the second wild-card spot in the AL, but are within striking distance of the Houston Astros in the AL West. We're predicting that they will usurp the Astros and win their first division title since 2001.
Aaron Judge will still win AL MVP
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Aaron Judge missed 10 days with a right elbow flexor strain, but that shouldn't wind up affecting his pursuit of a third AL MVP.
Judge currently leads all of baseball in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, OPS, OPS+, total bases and WAR. He's "only" the AL leader in runs scored and total bases.
Make no mistake, the aforementioned Raleigh is pushing Judge. He's got an MLB-high 42 home runs and leads the AL with 90 RBI. It's even more impressive that Raleigh is putting together this season while getting the bulk of his starts at catcher.
But in the end, Judge is within five home runs of Raleigh. Judge is also hitting .339, 91 points higher than Raleigh's .248. If Raleigh was in the NL, he would be the heavy favorite to win MVP. But he might have to settle for runner-up in the junior circuit, as Judge continues what's one of the greatest peaks in MLB history.
If Judge does indeed win AL MVP, it will be the third time in four seasons he takes home the honor. He would join Ohtani and Mike Trout—two players also headed for Cooperstown—as the only active players to win three MVPs.
5 players will hit 50 home runs
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We haven't even reached mid-August, and Raleigh (42) and Schwarber (40) have already cleared the 40-home run plateau. Ohtani (39), Judge (37) and Suárez (37) aren't far behind.
That means five players are on pace to hit 50 home runs, and frankly, we wouldn't bet against any of them doing it.
If Judge clears 50 this year, it would be the fourth time he's done it, a staggering amount. Ohtani, meanwhile, homered 54 times last year, so this would be his second season in a row with 50 or more. Both Schwarber (46 in 2022, 47 in 2023) and Suárez (49 in 2019) have come close before, but never hit 50, which seems likely to change soon. Raleigh's previous career-high in homers was 34, so he's already in unchartered territory.
Even if only four hit 50 home runs, that would be the first time that happened since 2001. That year, Barry Bonds set the MLB single-season record with 73 home runs. Sammy Sosa (64), Luis Gonzalez (57) and Alex Rodriguez (52) also hit 50+. Three other players—Jim Thome, Todd Helton and Shawn Green—hit 49 homers. It was a different time.
