Fantasy Football 2015: Late-Round Sleepers and Busts

Most fantasy owners tend to zone out by the end of drafts, overlooking the late-round sleepers and busts who are still available. "Bust" is a bit of an exaggeration once a fantasy football draft reaches Rounds 14-16, but sleepers like Kenny Stills, Kendall Wright and Carson Palmer could mean the difference between glory and irrelevance in 2015.

The 15th round should be reserved for team defense and special teams as a general rule, unless a top-rated unit like the Seattle Seahawks or Buffalo Bills is still hanging around in the 13th or 14th round, which usually doesn’t happen.

Owners should also abstain from drafting a kicker until the last round—the 16th in this case—because good kickers are a dime a dozen. Invariably, there’s at least one person in your draft who must fill out that starting lineup before the final round.

Feel free to mock and ridicule said individual for the rest of the season if you're so inclined.

If you follow those simple rules devoutly, the list of players ahead really only applies to the 14th round of a 16th-round standard redraft. But if you insist on reaching for your D/ST and kicker, the following names will be invaluable as your draft winds down.

The back end of a standard redraft feels like an afterthought, but don’t forget legitimate fantasy starters like Delanie Walker (172nd), Chis Ivory (175th) and Odell Beckham Jr. (178) came out of these rounds in 2014, according to MyFantasyLeague.com.

Guidelines

• Players listed are currently being drafted between the 14th and 16th rounds—the 157th through 192nd position. Standard 12-team leagues with 16 roster spots reach capacity with 192 players.
• Only the standard-scoring, season-long, redraft format was considered when compiling this list.
• "Bust" simply indicates the player’s average draft position (ADP) is well ahead of his expert consensus ranking, according to Fantasy Pros. Again, calling a player a bust at the end of the draft is a stretch, but it's the most efficient way to describe overrated players for the purposes of this slideshow.
• "Sleeper" means the opposite: Said player is dropping well below his ranking in ADP and is therefore a good value in between those two positions.

Honorable Mention

Matt York/Associated Press

Matthews' Super Bowl heroics aside, don't add him to your roster until he makes Seattle's starting lineup.

Bust: Reggie Wayne, Free Agent

Master Wayne doesn’t play for the Colts or anyone else right now. Stop drafting him.

Sleeper: Stevie Johnson, San Diego Chargers

San Diego will need other options to step up with Antonio Gates suspended through the first four games. Johnson could be in line for comeback player of the year if things pan out with the Chargers.

Bust: Denard Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars

It was a great run midway through 2014, but Robinson plays on a developing offense under a defensive-minded head coach with T.J. Yeldon and Toby Gerhart crowding him for playing time. Leave him for the waiver wire.

Sleeper: Donte Moncrief, Indianapolis Colts

Moncrief appeared a lock for fantasy relevance in 2015 before Indianapolis signed Andre Johnson and drafted Phillip Dorsett. The 2014 third-rounder out of Ole Miss is still the favorite to make the Colts’ WR3 over Dorsett and is falling a couple of rounds below his 14th-round (No. 165) ranking.

Bust: Chris Matthews, Seattle Seahawks

Only a 49ers fan could hate Matthews’ ascension. He went from being an undrafted flier out of Kentucky who was cut by Cleveland after training camp to catching on with the AFL’s Iowa Barnstormers and then joining the CFL’s Winnipeg Blue Bombers (both in 2012). He rode the pine on Seattle’s practice squad and special teams before breaking out in Super Bowl XLIX.

But he’s stuck behind Doug Baldwin, Jermaine Kearse, Tyler Lockett and possibly Paul Richardson (torn ACL) on the wide receiver depth chart. Not to mention Marshawn Lynch and Jimmy Graham will see massive targets from Russell Wilson.

Matthews is a great story, but he doesn’t deserve a spot on your fantasy roster unless he climbs one of the least talented receiver depth charts in the league.

Bust: Jonas Gray, New England Patriots

Jared Wickerham/Getty Images

FOXBORO, MA - NOVEMBER 23: Jonas Gray #35 of the New England Patriots warms up before a game against the Detroit Lions at Gillette Stadium on November 23, 2014 in Foxboro, Massachusetts. (Photo by Jared Wickerham/Getty Images)

Name recognition is a curse saddling many fantasy rosters with useless reserves over potential stars. Gray is a perfect example of this common error made by unprepared owners who are caught grasping for distinguishable names in the late rounds.

Gray made his name on a Week 11 Sunday night in Indianapolis, gashing the Colts for 201 yards and four touchdowns on 37 carries—good for 44 standard fantasy points, according to ESPN.com. The rushing explosion ranked as the top single-game fantasy scoring performance among running backs in 2014, per Michael Beller of SI.com.

The practice-squad journeyman went undrafted out of Notre Dame and then landed in Bill Belichick’s cold and lonely doghouse after missing a practice later that week. The Sports Illustrated cover jinx strikes again.

Owners are drafting Gray in the 15th round (No. 172) despite the fact the Patriots typically prefer a running back carousel to a traditional workhorse format. And even if LeGarrette Blount is Belichick’s bell cow, it’s unlikely Gray or any other Patriots reserve will be a reliable handcuff.

Leave Gray undrafted unless injuries thrust him into the spotlight again.

Draft-day takeaway: Gray was a healthy scratch for Super Bowl XLIX.

Bust: Jermaine Kearse, Seattle Seahawks

Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Spectacular catches count the same as the mundane in fantasy, but Kearse won't be making much of either in 2015.

Kearse’s decent postseason performance will be the undoing of fantasy owners with short memories. After all, he posted two touchdowns on seven receptions, averaging 29.2 yards per catch in a run-first offense.

But Kearse finished the 2014 regular season ranked 74th among wide receivers, averaging just four fantasy points per game. Seattle’s passing offense finished 27th in yards, belaboring the obvious for an offense clearly funneled through the run game.

Jimmy Graham’s acquisition only diminishes Kearse’s opportunities in the passing game, which could be further diluted by a strong training camp from the ranks of Tyler Lockett, Paul Richardson and Chris Matthews. Yet fantasy owners are choosing the three-year veteran (No. 192) over vastly more qualified deep threats like Kenny Stills (No. 206), Rueben Randle (No. 202) and Brian Quick (No. 201).

Those are the type of draft-day oversights that are guaranteed to cause roster regret down the line.

Draft-day takeaway: Russell Wilson targeted Kearse on just 14.7 percent of passing routes run, according to Pro Football Focus.  

Sleeper: Robert Griffin III, Washington Redskins

Mark Tenally/Associated Press/Associated Press

Griffin's taken a beating in his first three seasons, but still deserves a bench seat on your fantasy roster.

Griffin’s 2015 value is suffering from a textbook case of fantasy untouchability. (Yeah, I’m not really sure if that’s a word either, but spell check let it slide…)

Fantasy owners were still drafting him as high as QB12 last season on average, according to MyFantasyLeague.com. But now Griffin is watching 25 quarterbacks get selected ahead of him by owners who are afraid to touch him after he burned so many over the past two seasons.

It’s a predictable reaction given Griffin’s unpredictable performance on the field and on the mic. The 2012 Offensive Rookie of the Year suffered plenty of physical and mental anguish since, dragging his owners along for the bumpy ride.

But Redskins general manager Scott McCloughan confirmed the organization’s desire to turn things around for the franchise quarterback by taking Iowa Hawkeyes offensive lineman Brandon Scherff at No. 5 in this year’s draft, leaving talent like USC defensive end Leonard Williams on the board.

Washington also hired offensive line coach Bill Callahan away from the division rival Dallas Cowboys to further develop an already talented unit. Pro Football Focus ranked the Redskins O-line 12th in the league despite surrendering the second-most sacks (58).   

Normally, the offensive line is liable for such a glaring weakness, but Griffin’s indecision and inability to escape a pass rush are more culpable in this case. He went down 33 times in 2014, despite just 214 pass attempts—a ratio of one sack per 6.4 attempts, according to Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.

The three-year veteran hasn’t completed a season taking less than 30 sacks.

Griffin can’t be endorsed as a fantasy starter, but he should make a useful backup or streaming option for those attempting a zero quarterback draft strategy. His 13th-round grade (145th) casts his 14th-round asking price (163rd) in an enticing, low-end QB2 light.

Draft-day takeaway: Griffin’s health and inconsistency are his biggest liabilities. He missed 10 starts in his first three seasons because of injuries and coaching prerogative.

Sleeper: Marvin Jones, Cincinnati Bengals

Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports

Trust Jones (No. 82) to recapture Cincinnati's WR2 spot over Sanu (No. 12) and James Wright (No. 86).

Jones is the prototypical post-hype overlook after missing all of 2014 with foot and ankle injuries. He emerged in 2013 as a deep-threat alongside A.J. Green, scoring 10 touchdowns on just 51 receptions.

Jones was encouraged by his progress when participating in OTAs, according to Coley Harvey of ESPN.com: "I'm rolling. I don't think that's ever going to change. But it feels good just to track those deep balls and go and just—boom!—go. I'm happy and I'm proud of myself for just pushing through this situation.”

Harvey also reported wide receivers coach James Urban’s reaction to Jones’ return: "We're knocking off the rust. You're starting to see a play here, a play there of the old Marv, and the quickness, suddenness and explosiveness. It's just knocking off the rust of the timing, the feel and the depth of things. That's the thing that you lose."

Jones should easily eclipse Mohamed Sanu on the depth chart. Sanu pieced together a 29th-ranked finish among wide receivers as Cincinnati’s No. 2 but also led the league in drop rate, per Pro Football Focus.

Fantasy owners are beginning to notice as Jones maintains the WR2 spot behind Green, drafting him 198th on average. But that’s still far too low considering he’ll be in line for the bulk of Sanu’s 98 targets in 2014.

Don’t reach on trendy upstarts like Chris Matthews (No. 194) and rookies like Dorial Green-Beckham (No. 179) while Jones is still on the board.

Draft-Day takeaway: Jones graded 14th among wide receivers in 2013, according to Pro Football Focus.

Sleeper: Doug Baldwin, Seattle Seahawks

Ted S. Warren/Associated Press

If Pete Carroll's offense leans more on the passing game, Baldwin stands to improve the most in fantasy production.

Baldwin embodies how unattractive Seattle’s passing game is in fantasy circles, joining rosters at the end of the 16th round (185th) on average. Owners aren’t to blame for his jaundiced value; a slot receiver on the league’s sixth-worst passing offense just isn’t that sexy—even in first chair on the Seahawks depth chart.

The 2011 undrafted free agent out of Stanford is coming off his best NFL season, his first as a full-time starter. Baldwin’s 98 targets, 66 receptions and 825 yards are all career highs and tops among Seattle’s receivers for 2014.

His low yards per catch (12.5) and just three touchdowns buried Baldwin outside of PPR formats at 44th in 2014—tied with James Jones at just 6.3 points per game. But Pro Football Focus ranked him 20th last season, showing he’s a reliable performer in an underwhelming offense.

Jimmy Graham’s presence only improves Baldwin’s outlook in 2015, even if the ceiling isn’t terribly high. Stash Fantasy Pros’ 56th-ranked wide receiver on your bench for bye weeks and flex opportunities against weaker passing defenses.

Let other owners reach on promises from Dorial Green-Beckham (No. 179) and Cody Latimer (No. 168), while you settle on a sure thing.

Draft-day takeaway: Baldwin has only missed two games in four seasons.  

Sleeper: Kyle Rudolph, Minnesota Vikings

Ann Heisenfelt/Associated Press

Rudolph possesses TE1 potential if he can stay off the sidelines in 2015.

Rudolph’s nine touchdowns in 2012 earned him his lone Pro Bowl berth and christened him a fantasy darling at tight end. But injuries cut the next two seasons literally in half, rendering the four-year veteran a fantasy afterthought.

Lower-tier tight ends tend to be a dime a dozen, and Rudolph is no exception. But his 12th-round grade (133rd) versus his 15th-round ADP (178th) begs fantasy owners to take a chance on him at TE2 on upside value alone.

Rudolph knows health concerns are his greatest detraction after completing just two full seasons in his last six with the Vikings and at Notre Dame, according to Brian Murphy of the Pioneer Press.

“I'd like to think no one in the league works harder than I do to stay healthy and take care of my body, but the bottom line is I haven't been, and the only way to get rid of those questions is to play 16 games.”

There simply aren’t any other tight ends going that late in drafts with fantasy starting potential, especially if the four-year veteran can stay healthy.

Draft-day takeaway: Rudolph participated in 17 games (16 starts) over the last two seasons, totaling a combined 54 receptions for 544 yards; both would be career highs in a single season.

Sleeper: Brian Quick, St. Louis Rams

Ed Zurga/Associated Press

Quick wouldn't be available this late in drafts if his 2014 season didn't end on the cart.

It’s not surprising to see Quick among the forgotten on draft day. He plays on a low-grade offense, came from a no-name program—Appalachian State Mountaineers—and spent the last nine games of 2014 on injured reserve after injuring his shoulder in Week 8.

The Rams' offensive identity remains run-first under head coach Jeff Fisher and general manager Les Snead, as the team selected Georgia running back Todd Gurley 10th overall. Nick Foles brings a limited track record to St. Louis from a trade-happy Chip Kelly regime in Philadelphia.

The passing offense ranked 22nd in 2014 with Shaun Hill and Austin Davis splitting starts, which means there could be room for improvement if Foles acclimates well.

Quick emerged as a potential fantasy WR2 through the seven games he completed in 2014. His 8.7 fantasy points per game would have landed him 21st among wide receivers in fantasy scoring extrapolating for a full 16-game season.  

He shouldn’t be dropping to a 201st ADP with WR2 upside. Add Quick to your bench late in the draft and enjoy the receiver depth he provides all season.

Draft-day takeaway: Nick Wagoner of ESPN.com expects Quick to be ready for Week 1.

Sleeper: Kenny Stills, Miami Dolphins

Lynne Sladky/Associated Press

Stills is the favorite for No. 2 targets behind Jarvis Landry in Miami.

It stands to reason why fantasy owners would be turned off by a secondary weapon trading the potent New Orleans Saints offense for the emerging Dolphins, but Stills’ 84-point gap between ADP (206th) and consensus rank (122nd) is the largest on this list.

There are reasonable questions about his role and competition for Miami’s WR2 spot from rookie DeVante Parker and veteran Greg Jennings, but not enough to effectively exclude him from a 16-round draft.

All three players are new to the Dolphins this season, but Parker—Miami’s first-rounder out of Louisville—might not be recovered from foot surgery before Week 1, according to Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald.

Parker’s agent James Gould added “everything is perfect” when describing his surgery in Jackson’s piece, assuring fans not to be concerned. But fantasy owners should be worried, because unless Parker is a carbon copy of Odell Beckham Jr., chances are the missed preseason reps will translate to limited usage and slow development throughout 2015.

Jennings' presence shouldn’t trouble anyone. The 31-year-old will likely end up WR4 as an important veteran role model to the relative youth above him on the depth chart.

That leaves Stills, who was versatile enough to play long ball his rookie year before taking on a larger possession role last season in New Orleans. Drew Brees enjoyed a 112.0 passer rating in his 80 targets to Stills in 2014; that was tied with T.Y. Hilton for 15th, according to Pro Football Focus.

Yet fantasy owners are gambling on Parker at No. 142; that pick is more wisely spent on Stills if you’re still hunting for receivers in the later rounds.

Draft-day takeaway: PFF ranked Stills fourth in catch percentage (78.8) just behind former teammate Brandin Cooks (81.5) and current teammate Jarvis Landry (80.0).

Sleeper: Kendall Wright, Tennessee Titans

Mark Humphrey/Associated Press

All eyes are on Wright as he prepares to lead the Titans in all receiving categories in 2015.

Wright struggled in step with the entire Titans offense in 2014, finishing with career lows in targets (93) and receptions (57). Wright (32.3) and Justin Hunter (40.3) finished 12th and first, respectively, in uncatchable-target percentage, according to Scott Kacsmar of Football Outsiders.

The Titans’ shortcomings in year one of head coach Ken Whisenhunt’s scheme burned Wright owners who were counting on an improvement on his 30th-place breakout in fantasy scoring (112 points) among wide receivers in 2013. Wright’s 2014 stagnation (37th place, 110 points) can be easily explained by the ineptitude of Jake Locker, Charlie Whitehurst and Zach Mettenberger.

Paul Kuharsky of ESPN.com reported free-agent wide receiver Harry Douglas is impressed with rookie quarterback Marcus Mariota’s “unbelievable accuracy.”

It’s a notable endorsement considering Douglas spent his first six NFL seasons catching passes from Matt Ryan with the Atlanta Falcons.

Wright figures to be Mariota’s top target over tight end Delanie Walker and rookie Dorial Green-Beckham. Hunter is expected to join the team for training camp but is facing felony assault charges, according to ESPN’s Ed Werder on Twitter.

Therefore, Wright makes an excellent late-round value, grading in the 11th round (No. 111) but not getting drafted until the 15th (No. 158). Stash him as a reserve with flex potential and monitor his development with Mariota.  

Draft-day takeaway: Wright managed a career-best six touchdown receptions in a mediocre passing offense that totaled just 20 in 2014.

Sleeper: Carson Palmer, Arizona Cardinals

Ross D. Franklin/Associated Press

Palmer will wear a knee brace in 2015 to augment his surgically repaired ACL.

Palmer only completed five starts in 2014, missing three early-season games with a shoulder injury before tearing his ACL in Week 10. It’s no mystery that fantasy owners are looking the other way when it comes time to consider the 35-year-old Pro Bowler late in drafts.

But Palmer was on pace to score 300.8 fantasy points at an 18.8 points-per-game pace, according to ESPN.com. At that rate, the 12-year veteran would have landed fifth among quarterbacks in fantasy scoring over a full season, right in between Peyton Manning (307) and Ben Roethlisberger (195).

Darren Urban of AZ Cardinals.com reported Palmer is confident his knee is back to 100 percent.

“I’m not even thinking about my knee. I’m still rehabbing just to be on the safe side of things but I don’t need to be at rehab. I’m full go in the weight room, full go on the field, and until it’s brought up, I haven’t thought about what I’m not doing because I’m doing everything I was doing.”

Head coach Bruce Arians said Arizona plans to use more no-huddle in 2015, according to Mike Jurecki of Fox Sports 910 on Twitter. This means more opportunities for Palmer and all of the Cardinals’ offensive contributors.

If you’re planning on streaming QBs or just looking for a solid backup, Palmer is a worthwhile value with a 14th-round ADP (165th) despite his 11th-round ranking (124th).

Draft-day takeaway: Palmer completed 16 starts in six of his 11 active seasons—he backed up Jon Kitna in his rookie season (2003)—putting in a full year for the Cardinals in 2013 after missing just one start in Oakland in 2012.

Average draft position and consensus ranking courtesy of Fantasy Pros, NFL statistics courtesy of Pro Football Reference , fantasy stats provided by CBS Sports.com, contract and salary cap information provided by Over the Cap unless otherwise noted.