Buying or Selling Every Top Rookie QB as a Week 1 Starter

Let's take you back to the second weekend of November 2007, Week 10 on the '07 NFL schedule. That particular weekend is significant because it marked the last time the NFL had no rookies starting at quarterback. 

A total of 126 football weeks have since passed, with at least one rookie starting each time. 

In 2008, both Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco started from the get-go. In 2009, it was Mark Sanchez and Matthew Stafford. Week 1 in 2010 featured Sam Bradford as a starter, while the Cam Newton and Andy Dalton both started right away in 2011. 

With Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, Russell Wilson, Ryan Tannehill and Brandon Weeden all getting the call right off the bat, 2012 was a massive year for rookie Week 1 starters under center. And the trend continued with Geno Smith and EJ Manuel in 2013, as well as Derek Carr in 2014. 

During that span, an average of about two rookie quarterbacks have started Week 1 on an annual basis. 

This year's NFL draft saw a record-low seven quarterbacks selected, but pivots were chosen with the top two picks for only the sixth time since the beginning of the Super Bowl era. So you can probably guess which two QBs make the most sense as Week 1 starters, but here's a full breakdown of the all seven drafted signal-callers and whether or not they will be alpha dogs come early September.  

Jameis Winston: Buying

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The general idea nowadays is that if you're drafted first overall and expected to be the franchise savior, you start Week 1. That was the case with Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts in 2012, Cam Newton and the Carolina Panthers in 2011, Sam Bradford and the St. Louis Rams in 2010 and Matthew Stafford and the Detroit Lions in 2009. 

The last top pick at the quarterback position who didn't start the first week of his rookie season was megabust JaMarcus Russell in 2007, which should further incentivize the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to get Jameis Winston in the lineup for the team's Sept. 13 matchup with the Tennessee Titans. 

Sure, nothing's set in stone and a lot could happen between now and then, but considering that the Florida State product finished organized team activities as the team's first-string quarterback, it does look as though it's already his job to lose. 

“It’s pretty difficult to say with a straight face that we’re not going to give Jameis that opportunity to win [the starting job] right away,” Bucs general manager Jason Licht told PFT Live on NBC Sports Radio (via Pro Football Talk's Mike Florio) earlier this offseason. “He’s the first overall pick. We think he’s very advanced in terms of his ability to play and pick up schemes and concepts and learn the playbook relative to most rookies, or any rookie we’ve scouted in recent history. So he’s gonna have every opportunity.”

With Mike Glennon—who completed only 57.6 percent of his passes and threw six interceptions in six games last season—serving as his only real competition, it's hard to imagine anyone but Winston starting Week 1. 

That's especially the case if Tampa Bay's Week 1 opponent starts Winston's top-of-the-draft counterpart Marcus Mariota in the very same game. 

Marcus Mariota: Buying

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Starting jobs are rarely won during organized team activities, but the Tennessee Titans admitted from the beginning that the plan was to start No. 2 overall pick Marcus Mariota in Week 1, and the Oregon product definitely boosted his chances during OTAs. 

Some examples: 

• “He is faster than I thought,” linebacker Zach Brown told the Tennessean's Jim Wyatt in May. “He is an athletic quarterback. He didn’t win the Heisman for nothing. One time he took off—I was guarding Delanie [Walker]—and I turned around and I was like, ‘Where is he?’ He is fast. He impressed me. He is still a rookie and he has to learn, but he is a cool guy. I haven’t seen him get frustrated yet.”
• "He's a real good quarterback," wide receiver Justin Hunter said in May, per Amber Harding of TitansOnline.com. "I see it in him." Mariota was also lauded within the same article by receivers Harry Douglas and Hakeem Nicks.
• A veteran Titans player told NFL Network's Jeff Darlington in June that Mariota is "the real deal," calling him a "stud player with [a] great arm" and a "perfect attitude."
• Later in June, receivers coach Shawn Jefferson called Mariota "deadly accurate," according to ESPN.com's Paul Kuharsky, adding that he's "giddy about his future going forward."
• And finally, Kuharsky wrote in an OTAs wrapup that "there was not one time while watching practice I thought there was going to be cause for any controversy in camp over Mariota being the starter. He was the best quarterback on the field and the gap wasn't a small one."

Mariota and Robert Griffin III are the only No. 2 overall picks at the quarterback position this century. Griffin started Week 1, and Mariota appears to be a shoo-in to follow suit. 

Garrett Grayson: Selling

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Dating back to 2006, only one quarterback drafted beyond the second round has started Week 1, and that quarterback was the very special Russell Wilson of the Seattle Seahawks. 

Interestingly, both Wilson and Garrett Grayson were selected 75th overall. But the comparisons stop there, because when Wilson was drafted by Seattle he merely had to supplant Matt Flynn and Tarvaris Jackson. 

Grayson, on the other hand, is slated to back up future Hall of Famer Drew Brees. 

The same Drew Brees who made his seventh consecutive Pro Bowl while leading the NFL in passing yardage and accuracy percentage in 2014, according to Pro Football Focus. 

The same Drew Brees who has never missed a game due to injury in 14 NFL seasons. 

Brees won't be doing much in training camp and the preseason, and he won't be asked to. The 36-year-old could complete zero passes between now and Sept. 13 and—barring an injury—he'd still be the starter for that Week 1 matchup with the Arizona Cardinals. 

And even if that nightmare scenario did play out, Grayson would have to beat out veteran backup Luke McCown, which is unlikely in its own right. 

Sean Mannion: Selling

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Considering that the St. Louis Rams just traded away the former face of their franchise for new quarterback Nick Foles, it's probably safe to conclude that rookie third-round pick Sean Mannion will have to wait before getting a shot at NFL starts. 

And even if something were to happen to the somewhat fragile Foles this summer, it's unlikely the turnover-prone Oregon State product would be the next man up. After all, current backup Austin Davis did a decent job as a spot starter in place of the injured Sam Bradford last season, completing 63.4 percent of his passes while posting a 12-9 touchdown-to-interception ratio and a passer rating of 85.1. 

At best, Mannion was drafted as a potential long-term project. But the reality is the smart, mature quarterback was poached from a pro-style offense in order to provide support and depth. He'll be holding a clipboard Week 1, and many weeks beyond that. 

Bryce Petty: Selling

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It's tempting to go out on a limb and predict that Bryce Petty will make a climb up the New York Jets' quarterback depth chart this summer, much like fellow mid-round pick Russell Wilson did with the Seattle Seahawks in 2012. 

After all, the Jets still lack a franchise quarterback, and the 24-year-old Petty, who recorded 61 touchdowns and only 10 interceptions during two full seasons as a starter at Baylor, appears to be as close to NFL-ready as you can get outside of the first round of the draft. 

The problem is the Jets don't really have time to experiment with a rookie fourth-round pick who, according to Charles Robinson of Yahoo Sports, "looked rough" in rookie minicamp. Led by stars Sheldon Richardson, Muhammad Wilkerson and Darrelle Revis, the defense—which ranked sixth in football last year—is ready to compete right now. And with receivers Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker, a solid offensive line and a quality group of running backs, Gang Green has a solid offensive nucleus. 

This team is desperate to compete and knows it can't do so without strong play from the quarterback position.

Veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick might not be a long-term answer, but the 32-year-old has started 89 games with five different teams and is coming off a season in which he quietly ranked ninth in the league with a passer rating of 95.3.

Plus, third-year pivot Geno Smith probably has more natural talent than any quarterback on the roster. The 2013 second-round pick has had an up-and-down start to his career, but he did finish the 2014 campaign on a relative high note (3-1 record, 83.6 rating). And as NFL Media's Daniel Jeremiah (via NFL.com's Mike Huguenin) noted after the draft, Smith was "way further along at the same stage as Petty." 

"Bryce Petty needs to sit," Jeremiah added. "Now, hopefully, whoever's playing ahead of him—be it Geno Smith or Fitzpatrick—hopefully they afford him that luxury."

Even if those guys fail to deliver in 2015, there's no way Petty will have overtaken them by Week 1. 

Brett Hundley: Selling

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Unless you count 33-year-old "rookie" Dieter Brock, who was never drafted and started his first NFL game the opening week of the 1985 season after 10 years in the CFL, no quarterback drafted beyond the fourth round has started in Week 1 in the last 30 years. 

As far as fresh-out-of-college rookies go, a quarterback drafted after Round 4 hasn't started Week 1 since Randy Hedberg did so as an eighth-round pick (196th overall) for the 1977 Tampa Bay Buccaneers. 

Don't look for Hundley to bring an end to that run. He is, after all, backing up the highest-rated passer in NFL history in Aaron Rodgers, who is also coming off an MVP season. If Rodgers is healthy Week 1, he'll be in the starting lineup at Soldier Field Sept. 13. It literally wouldn't matter how poorly he performed in August. 

And even beyond that, it looks as though Scott Tolzien will enter training camp as Rodgers' primary backup, per the Green Bay Press-Gazette's Weston Hodkiewicz. 

Trevor Siemian: Selling

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Here are a few things that have a higher likelihood of taking place than seventh-round pick Trevor Siemian supplanting Peyton Manning and Brock Osweiler and Zac Dysert, becoming the first fresh-out-of-college rookie in modern NFL history (post-1970 merger) drafted beyond pick No. 200 to start Week 1:

• Vanilla Ice, Chumbawamba, Aqua and House of Pain collaborate on a surprisingly phenomenal new album, which they call Two-Hit Wonder.
• Castle Rock Entertainment green-lights a belated sequel to The Adventures of Pluto Nash, this time starring Mel Gibson and Anne Hathaway. 
• The cities of Baltimore, Boston and New Orleans adopt and embrace "Roger Goodell Appreciation Day."