Ranking the Top 10 NBA Rookie of the Year Candidates Before 2025 Summer League
The best part about any NBA rookie class is the hope it inspires. Every fresh face has a shot to someday be etched on his team's Mount Rushmore.
Not everyone in the 2025 crop will be memorialized quite to that degree, but we can at least lay out which rookies have the best shot to get their names engraved on a slightly smaller monument: The Wilt Chamberlain Trophy awarded to the Rookie of the Year.
Nobody's played a game yet, so we're analyzing a combination of skills and situations to zero in on which first-year talents are best positioned to seize big roles and put up the numbers necessary for recognition.
Here's how Cooper Flagg, Ace Bailey, Dylan Harper and all the rest stack up in a very early look at this season's best bets to win Rookie of the Year.
10. Nikola Topić, Oklahoma City Thunder
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Playing time could be an issue on a stacked, defending-champion-caliber Oklahoma City Thunder roster. But Nikola Topić, who slipped to OKC in last year's draft due to a torn ACL, should be ready to show why he was projected to be a top-five pick prior to injury.
He could easily follow Chet Holmgren's lead by barging into the ROY race after spending his first season on the shelf.
A skilled playmaker, Topić's ability to break down defenses and create shots should earn him a chance to sop up reserve minutes that might otherwise go to Ajay Mitchell, Aaron Wiggins or Isaiah Joe. If the Thunder had a flaw during their title run, it was a lack of secondary creation behind Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams.
The 6'5" point guard could find himself pressed into major duty if either of OKC's top two playmakers were to miss time, opening up an opportunity to at least make an All-Rookie team.
9. Khaman Maluach, Phoenix Suns
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Other than competition from the eight players ahead of him on this list, the only things standing in the way of Khaman Maluach winning Rookie of the Year are Mark Williams and a steep learning curve.
Given Williams' durability issues, the adjustment to the speed of the NBA game will probably be the bigger hurdle.
The Phoenix Suns acquired Williams from the Charlotte Hornets on draft night with designs on him starting at center. Williams averaged 15.3 points and 10.2 rebounds per game last year and deserves that role. But he's also logged just 106 games over three seasons and had a previous trade with the Los Angeles Lakers rescinded for medical reasons.
We should assume Maluach will wind up starting his fair share of games in Phoenix.
If he delivers on the rim-defending, lob-catching promise that got him drafted in the top 10, the Duke product could pile up counting stats while defenses focus on Devin Booker.
The Suns have massive financial issues, crippling inflexibility and a tough road ahead in the brutal West. Maluach could be one of the brighter spots in a difficult season, especially if he winds up taking on a first-unit role.
8. Jeremiah Fears, New Orleans Pelicans
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Dejounte Murray will miss most of the 2025-26 season, Jordan Poole isn't a true point guard and Jose Alvarado has never averaged more than last year's 24.4 minutes per game. Those are all factors pointing to a sizable role for rookie point guard Jeremiah Fears.
When you've got as much raw natural talent and undeniable on-ball shake as Fears does, opportunity might be all it takes to seize starter's minutes and never let go.
That's not to say Fears is without his flaws. He shot 28.4 percent from deep at Oklahoma (but an encouraging 85.1 percent at the foul line), turned the ball over nearly as often as he logged assists and could have a harder time getting to his spots due to a lack of size.
There will be long stretches during which Fears will be physically overwhelmed. Opponents will target him with larger matchups, and defenders won't treat him honestly until he proves he can hit shots from beyond the arc.
That said, Fears has a rare level of athletic burst and ball-handling craft that makes it easy to see the upside.
7. Walter Clayton Jr., Utah Jazz
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A first-team All-American, NCAA champ and four-year collegiate player, Walter Clayton Jr. has major advantages over the rookie field in the experience and track-record departments.
That doesn't necessarily mean the Florida guard has some stratospheric ceiling, but it does augur well for his first-year prospects.
It also doesn't hurt that the Utah Jazz are short on reliable backcourt options.
Keyonte George and Isaiah Collier were Utah's last two rookie guard selections, and both have been mixed bags. The former showed some off-the-bounce verve as a shooter, while the latter displayed a knack for getting downhill and setting up teammates. Both are deeply imperfect prospects who don't deserve guaranteed minutes over Clayton—particularly if he comes in and outplays them in camp.
Just 6'2" and not a pure point guard, Clayton might run into fit issues on other teams. But Utah is such an unformed lump of clay that he should get plenty of chances to prove himself, even if the lineup constructions are odd.
6. VJ Edgecombe, Philadelphia 76ers
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We're aware of the Philadelphia 76ers' crowded backcourt situation, but this is as far as a prospect with so much raw talent and attention-grabbing athleticism can fall.
VJ Edgecombe could have a hard time carving out major minutes in a rotation that features Tyrese Maxey, Jared McCain and restricted free agent Quentin Grimes. Rest assured the bouncy Baylor product will make the most of whatever role he occupies.
Top-tier open-floor speed and hops will make Edgecombe a regular highlight-generator. He and Maxey might have the inside track on the unofficial title of the league's fastest backcourt. Edgecombe's 2.1 steals per game in college speaks to his capacity to wreck games on both ends. If he's solid enough as a team defender, he could add a level of two-way guard dynamism the Sixers simply haven't had since De'Anthony Melton was prowling around a couple of years ago.
If Edgecombe can improve his finishing (non-thunderdunk variety) and cut his turnovers, he could force the Sixers into some difficult rotation decisions.
5. Kon Knueppel, Charlotte Hornets
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The Charlotte Hornets surrounded LaMelo Ball with some of the most errant marksmen in the league last year. Kon Knueppel is here to address that.
While the Duke product is out there canning shots (40.6 percent from deep in college; 91.4 percent from the foul line), he'll get opportunities to show the other layers of his game.
Though he won't blow anyone away with change of direction or downhill burst, Knueppel should be strong and clever enough with the ball to get to his spots. Secondary facilitation should be a strength for him, as should foul-drawing craft.
Flagg was the only other Blue Devil to average at least 2.0 assists and 3.0 free-throw attempts per game last season.
Realistically, Knueppel will need an injury to take on a major role. Ball will run the show, and Brandon Miller is the easy choice to take on most of the perimeter scoring load. This is a bet that Knueppel will do enough work on the margins and as a spot-up threat to stick in the rotation, while also acknowledging he could take on much more responsibility on offense if necessary.
4. Dylan Harper, San Antonio Spurs
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Stephon Castle pulled it off despite playing alongside a conventional point guard for his entire first season, so maybe Dylan Harper can follow his lead and give the San Antonio Spurs their third consecutive Rookie of the Year.
Realistically, it'll be harder for Harper to get the numbers he'll need than it was for Castle. Chris Paul is gone, but the No. 2 overall pick will have to contend with De'Aaron Fox and Castle for touches—not to mention a potentially bigger on-ball role for Victor Wembanyama because, well...why wouldn't Wemby continue to take on higher usage as he ascends?
Harper isn't an ace gunner, but he's still probably going to be a better deep threat than Castle. That could mean less time on the ball than he'd otherwise deserve, but it could come with more open looks than he ever saw at Rutgers. It wouldn't be a surprise to see him blow past his collegiate hit rate of 33.3 percent from downtown.
The scoring and playmaking talent is undeniable, so Harper has to come in among the top five here. But opportunities could be limited.
3. Tre Johnson, Washington Wizards
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Tre Johnson will get all he can eat on a spacing-starved Washington Wizards squad that badly needs him to fire away at high volume.
One of the best pure shooters in the class landed in just the right spot and should spend plenty of time as something close to a first option. At the very least, the Wizards will run sets to get Johnson looks from long range, hoping to capitalize on his 39.7 percent hit rate at Texas.
Can he put the ball on the floor against NBA defenders? Will his slim frame hold up against bulkier opponents on the other end? Honestly, probably not on both counts. But that's not what this is about.
Johnson is a deadeye scorer on a team that needs one—unless we think Khris Middleton or some other vet is going to steal his minutes. That means the 6'6" wing will have every opportunity to rack up points and compile a statistical resumé worthy of real ROY consideration.
2. Ace Bailey, Utah Jazz
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Whether or not it's true that Ace Bailey and his reps were trying to steer him away from teams where he wouldn't be an on-ball focal point, the Utah Jazz are positioned to give him all the reps he can handle.
No rookie is better positioned to pile up touches and shots than Bailey, who'll join a Jazz squad desperate for someone under the age of 25 to emerge as a cornerstone.
Though his skills didn't lead to success in college, Bailey profiles as a dangerous long-range shooter who can also create his own mid-range opportunities. He's a pure shotmaker with an abundance of confidence.
His size and length (6'7.5 with a 7'1" wingspan) will give him major advantages over defenders and should produce counting stats—if not efficiency. Even if Bailey's current top skill might be "creating and making bad shots", he'll be given every opportunity to explore the limits of his game in Utah.
And if Lauri Markkanen winds up getting traded away (or shut down with a suspect injury like he did last year), Bailey will have unchecked agency on offense.
1. Cooper Flagg, Dallas Mavericks
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Cooper Flagg's Rookie of the Year case mirrors the one that got him drafted first overall: It's theoretically possible he won't be the absolute best player on his team (or in his class), but his versatility, game-readiness, capacity to improve and competitive tenacity make it hard to see how he could fail.
That high-floor argument probably sells Flagg's ceiling short. It's as if his ability to do everything very well—shoot, defend, make plays on and off the ball—makes evaluators leap to the conclusion that he won't be outright great at anything.
Considering how much better he got at Duke, specifically as a shooter and on-ball threat, it feels like a mistake to suggest he can't continue making strides in virtually every area.
His defensive work will keep him on the floor for the Dallas Mavericks no matter what percentage he shoots from the field, but no one should underestimate what Flagg might be able to do offensively when he's no longer the opponent's absolute top priority for the first time in his life.
The whole deal with Flagg is that he just keeps getting better. But if all he does is replicate his Duke numbers of 19.2 points, 7.5 rebounds, 4.2 assists and 1.4 blocks, he'll run away with the award.
Stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference and Cleaning the Glass. Salary info via Spotrac.
Grant Hughes covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Bluesky and subscribe to the Hardwood Knocks podcast, where he appears with Bleacher Report's Dan Favale.
