NFL Rookies Worth Taking a Chance on in Fantasy Football

If you’re willing to take chances in your quest to win a fantasy football league, one risk/reward strategy is to draft rookies. While unproven first-year players are never sure bets for success, they also have as much potential to achieve surprise production—and therefore be fantasy draft steals—as anyone in the NFL.

Last week, I wrote about five rookies who are not worth the risk, as each of them face impediments to production that make them unlikely to live up to the expectations that will come with where they are being selected in fantasy drafts.

There are many other rookies, however, who are worth taking a chance on, especially in deeper leagues.

You won’t find the likes of Amari Cooper, Melvin Gordon and Jameis Winston in the following slideshow; if you’re an avid fantasy football player, you’re probably already aware of their potential merits. Instead, the following slides highlight players who are likely to still be available in the late rounds of your fantasy drafts, where these players could end up providing great value.

None of the following players currently rank within the top 20 in average fantasy draft position among rookies in redraft leagues, according to MyFantasyLeague.com as of July 11. All of them, however, should have real opportunities to get on the field this season and put up some numbers.

Phillip Dorsett, WR, Indianapolis Colts

Michael Conroy/Associated Press

Average Draft Position: 144.78 (21st among rookies)

Few rookies received more hype during spring workouts than Indianapolis Colts first-round pick Phillip Dorsett. Even so, the wide receiver has not been getting much love so far among fantasy football drafters. Despite being the sixth pass-catcher off the board in the NFL draft this April, his average draft position ranks just ninth among rookie wideouts.

The main reason why Dorsett is not being selected highly in fantasy drafts is that it is unclear how prominent his role will be within the Colts offense. With T.Y. Hilton and Andre Johnson entrenched as starting wide receivers, Dorsett is competing with promising second-year wideout Donte Moncrief to be the team’s No. 3 option.

Moncrief performed well in limited action last year—he caught 32 passes for 444 yards and three touchdowns—and is deserving of a greater role in 2015. Even so, it is apparent that the Colts are going to find ways to get Dorsett involved in the passing game.

“Phillip Dorsett is going to cut into somebody’s playing time this season,” Indy Sports Central’s Mike Chappell wrote following the end of the team’s mandatory minicamp in June.

If the Colts didn’t expect Dorsett to be a difference-maker as a rookie, they wouldn’t have taken him with a first-round draft choice. With truly elite speed—Dorsett ran a 4.33-second 40-yard dash at the NFL Scouting Combine—it is likely the Miami product will make some big plays this upcoming season.

On an offense that had more passing attempts than any other team in the NFL last season with Andrew Luck at quarterback, Dorsett will have opportunities to catch the ball. He is also in line to be the team’s punt returner, according to Kevin Bowen of Colts.com.

As a late-round selection in a fantasy draft, Dorsett could prove to be a great value.

Tyler Lockett, WR, Seattle Seahawks

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Average Draft Position: 183.01 (26th among rookies)

At arguably the most mediocre position on the Seattle Seahawks roster, third-round pick Tyler Lockett should have a chance to quickly emerge as one of the team’s top wide receivers in his rookie season.

Lockett’s highest value in 2015 will come in leagues that award points for kickoff and punt return yardage, as he is expected to handle both duties for the Seahawks this season, according to Brady Henderson of 710 ESPN Seattle. A second-team AP All-American last season as an all-purpose player, Lockett had six return touchdowns in his collegiate career at Kansas State.

With that being said, Lockett also has the skills to be an immediate upgrade on the Seahawks offense as well. A fast, agile player with tremendous route-running ability, Lockett has tools that should enable him to get open and be a receiving weapon right off the bat this upcoming year.

Like Phillip Dorsett, Lockett is falling in fantasy drafts because it is uncertain how vast his role will be as a wide receiver in 2015. But while there won’t be as many opportunities to go around for Lockett—the Seahawks had the fewest passing attempts in the NFL last year—he could easily work his way into a starting role by the end of the season on a depth chart that only has one wide receiver, Doug Baldwin, who has had a 600-plus-yard season.

According to ESPN.com’s Terry Blount, Lockett “easily has been the most impressive rookie so far” this offseason.

If Lockett continues to stand out in training camp and the preseason, don’t be surprised if he makes a serious push for playing time against Jermaine Kearse, Ricardo Lockette and Paul Richardson.

Likely to be available in the late rounds of most fantasy drafts, Lockett has the talent to be a steal if he gets the opportunity to play with regularity.

Devin Smith, WR, New York Jets

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Average Draft Position: 194.67 (30th among rookies)

A true deep threat whose big-play ability was pivotal in Ohio State’s run to a national championship last year, second-round pick Devin Smith could post significant fantasy points even if he is not a regular target for the New York Jets offense in 2015.

Smith has the potential to make a similar impact to that which Martavis Bryant had for the Pittsburgh Steelers as a rookie last season. Despite playing in just 10 games and catching just 26 passes in 2014, Bryant ranked 41st among all wide receivers in fantasy football standard scoring, according to ESPN.com, with 549 receiving yards and eight touchdowns.

Smith offers a similar ability to Bryant to stretch the field with his speed and make plays on the ball in the air for deep receptions and touchdowns. He led the NCAA’s Football Bowl Subdivision last year with a whopping 28.21 yards per catch and had 12 touchdowns on just 33 total receptions.

As the Jets are weak at quarterback (Geno Smith) and well-stocked at wide receiver (Brandon Marshall, Eric Decker, Jeremy Kerley), Devin Smith’s value projects to be lower in point-per-reception leagues than it will be in non-PPR formats. Because his skill set and situation will likely lead to up-and-down production, Smith projects to be most valuable in “best ball” leagues, where results are based on each team’s highest scorers each week rather than set lineups.

Either way, Smith is worth a late-round flier in any league simply because of the upside he has to score touchdowns and make high-yardage receptions. His ability to track the ball against coverage goes a long way in making a quarterback look good—just ask Buckeyes quarterback Cardale Jones—and should enable him to make his mark in 2015, at least to some extent, even though the Jets lack a top-tier quarterback.

Cameron Artis-Payne, RB, Carolina Panthers

Chuck Burton/Associated Press

Average Draft Position: 197.72 (32nd among rookies)

Should one of the NFL’s most injury-prone running backs get sidelined once again this year for the Carolina Panthers, fifth-round pick Cameron Artis-Payne could be the next man up.

Jonathan Stewart re-emerged as the Panthers’ feature back in 2014, rushing for 809 yards and three touchdowns in 13 games played. His health history, however, is alarming: in the past five seasons, Stewart has played just one full 16-game season and has missed 22 total games.

Behind Stewart, the Panthers have limited options after releasing DeAngelo Williams this offseason. Stewart is the only back on Carolina’s roster who ran for more than 200 yards in the NFL last season.

Given that, Artis-Payne has a chance to immediately emerge as the Panthers’ No. 2 running back, which would make him the fill-in starter if Stewart gets hurt once again.

In his lone season as a starter at Auburn, Artis-Payne led the Southeastern Conference with 1,608 rushing yards in 2014. While he lacks the physical qualities of a star NFL running back, he has enough between-the-tackles running ability to be productive if he gets the carries.

Because of Stewart’s known propensity of injuries, it would be a prudent move for fantasy football players who draft him to also bring in Artis-Payne for insurance with a late-round pick. But because the Panthers have no strong veteran option to spell Stewart, Artis-Payne could prove to be a shrewd investment for any team, especially in leagues with multiple flex spots.

Justin Hardy, WR, Atlanta Falcons

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Average Draft Position: 204.04 (34th among rookies)

The Atlanta Falcons ranked third in the NFL last season with 632 passing attempts. That could open the door for fourth-round pick Justin Hardy, the favorite to replace departed free agent Harry Douglas as the team’s No. 3 receiver, to be productive right off the bat in his rookie season.

Coming off a prolific career at East Carolina in which he set the Football Bowl Subdivision’s all-time record for receptions, Hardy is a pro-ready player who is tailor-made for the slot receiver role in which he could replace Douglas. While he lacks top-notch size and speed, he has consistent hands and is an excellent route-runner.

To earn the third spot on the Falcons’ wide receiver depth chart behind Julio Jones and Roddy White, Hardy will need to beat out Devin Hester and Leonard Hankerson. Considering that Hester is an unnatural receiver who is at his best returning kickoffs and punts, while Hankerson has just 81 receptions in four NFL seasons, Hardy should have a good shot of winning that battle.

If he does—and perhaps even if he doesn’t—Hardy should see plenty of passes come his way in 2015. As the Nos. 3 and 4 receivers in Atlanta last season, Douglas and Hester combined for 89 receptions on 134 targets. 

Because Hardy thrives in the short and intermediate passing game and does not project as a big-play receiver, his value will be much higher in point-per-reception leagues than standard scoring leagues. Either way, though, he projects as a solid bet for a good return on investment—especially in deep leagues—given that his average draft position is above 200.

Clive Walford, TE, Oakland Raiders

Average Draft Position: 221.99 (37th among rookies)

The top tight end in the rookie class, Baltimore Ravens second-round pick Maxx Williams, projects as a potential late-round fantasy steal in his own right, with an average draft position of 136.22 (20th among rookies). An even better value in deep leagues, however, could come from Oakland Raiders third-round pick Clive Walford, who has just as much potential as Williams to emerge as an impactful receiving playmaker at the tight end position in 2015.

On a Raiders offense that needs new pass-catching weapons to step up this season, Walford could prove to be a more dynamic receiving option than Mychal Rivera, Oakland’s incumbent starter at tight end. Coming off a senior season in which he caught 44 passes for 676 yards and seven touchdowns, Walford is a skilled inside receiver who has good size (6’4”, 251 lbs) and enough athleticism to stretch the field up the seam.

ESPN.com’s Bill Williamson described Walford’s performance in the Raiders’ spring workouts as “outstanding” and “terrific.”

“The tight end stretched the field. He showed terrific hands and speed, especially for a big man. If Walford continues to shine in training camp, I'd expect him to beat out third-year incumbent Mychal Rivera for the starting job,” Williamson wrote.

Oakland’s first-round pick, Amari Cooper, has a chance to be the NFL’s best rookie from a fantasy football standpoint in 2015, while veteran free-agent addition Michael Crabtree should also play a big role in the Raiders offense this year. Beyond them, however, the Raiders still have a limited crop of offensive difference-makers, which leaves a path open for Walford to come in and accumulate receptions while also being a touchdown threat in the red zone.

In leagues that only utilize one tight end each week per roster, Walford might not be a player who fantasy GMs need to consider drafting. But in leagues that use multiple tight ends or have large rosters, Walford could be a strong late-round investment given his pass-catching ability and the questionable talent around him.

All measurables and statistics courtesy of NFL.com and ESPN.com unless otherwise noted.

Dan Hope is an NFL/NFL Draft Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report.

Follow @Dan_Hope