NBA Finals Bracket 2025 Odds, Box Score Predictions for Pacers vs. Thunder Game 5
With 3:20 remaining in Game 4 of the NBA Finals, the Indiana Pacers led the Oklahoma City Thunder by four points, in position to take a stranglehold of the series.
Teams that have taken a commanding three-to-one series lead in the NBA Finals have gone on to win it all 37 of 38 times, and it was unlikely that would change unless Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was somehow able to channel his inner LeBron James circa 2016.
But Gilgeous-Alexander will not need to mimic the King after all.
The newly crowned NBA MVP was brilliant down the stretch and scored an NBA Finals record 15 points in clutch time, while the Thunder's top-ranked defense stymied the Pacers’ dynamic offense, limiting them to a sole free throw in the final 3:20.
With Monday's Game 5 (8:30 p.m. ET on ABC), should the betting world side with the Oklahoma City Thunder to ride the momentum of Game 4? Or will the Pacers—who haven't lost consecutive games since March 10—pull off another stunner in OKC?
We'll do our best to provide you with our favorite box-score bets for Game 5.
Game 5 Odds
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Spread: Oklahoma City (-9.5)
Over/Under: 224
Money Line: Oklahoma City (-405; bet $405 to win $100); Indiana (+320; bet $100 to win $320)
OKC Will Cover -9.5 Spread
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In Game 4, the Thunder became the first team to win an NBA Finals game with three or fewer three-pointers since the 2010 Celtics.
Despite trailing late in the fourth quarter, Oklahoma City rallied around Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who paced them with 15 in the final 5:00, while the defense found its identity, forcing the Pacers into taking low-percentage shots.
Now on Monday, OKC will play at Paycom Center in front of a home crowd eager to see its franchise get one step closer to winning a first championship.
The Thunder found their trademark defense at the end of Game 4, which had stifled so many opponents all year.
The Pacers haven't lost consecutive games since March, but if the Thunder can carry that momentum from Game 4 and play with that same physical defense, they will control this one early.
Gilgeous-Alexander will pace them with his fourth 30-point game of the series, Jalen Williams will add 20+, and no amount of fourth-quarter heroics will be enough for the Pacers.
Tyrese Haliburton Will Hit His Over 16.5 Point Total With Ease
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The Pacers' success is contingent on Tyrese Haliburton's ability to be a playmaker.
Rick Carlisle’s group is 33-4 this season in games where Haliburton has scored at least 20 points.
Haliburton has had an incredible run in the NBA playoffs, making four game-tying or go-ahead shots in the final five seconds of the fourth quarter or overtime this postseason.
To put that in perspective, Michael Jordan has made five such shots throughout his entire playoff career.
As remarkable as Haliburton has been this postseason, he’s been passive in the NBA Finals as a result of the Thunder’s dominant defense.
The Thunder have brought the pressure early and often, forcing the ball out of Haliburton’s hands.
He’s found ways to adjust, however, exploiting big man Isiah Hartenstein’s weaknesses in the post against Pascal Siakam.
But Indiana will need him to take even more initiative to pull out another victory in Oklahoma City.
Haliburton's point total for Game 5 currently sits at 16.5 per FanDuel Sportsbook, which seems too good to be true considering he's hit this mark in six of his last eight games.
Furthermore, he will need to come out aggressive from the outset if the Pacers have any real chance of pulling off an upset on the road.
It wouldn't be surprising to see him take 20+ shots while continuing to fill the stat sheet in other ways.
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