Texas State Reportedly 'Heavy Favorite' to Get Pac-12 Invite Amid Memphis Rumors

After a handful of good seasons, Texas State could be on its way out of the Sun Belt.

Per ESPN's Pete Thamel and Kyle Bonagura, the Bobcats are "the heavy favorite" to receive an invite to the Pac-12. While the conference is still in talks with other schools, Texas State appears to be the frontrunner.

Thamel and Bonagura noted that Texas State's buyout to leave the Sun Belt for the 2026-27 will jump from $5 million to $10 million.

Amid Texas State's emergence as a favorite to join the new-look Pac-12, another school looking to leave its conference doesn't have as much leverage. According to Thamel and Bonagura, there isn't "much immediate interest" in Memphis from the power conferences.

Thamel and Bonagura noted that Pac-12 officials have discussed bringing Memphis on as a football-only school while the rest of the school's athletic programs would join the Big East. That scenario would allow football to move to a power conference, allow basketball to compete in a strong league and eliminate some of the travel for non-revenue sports.

If the Tigers can't make their way from the AAC, per Thamel and Bonagura, it could lead to "further exploration of some type of split conference affiliation."

Memphis' football team has reached bowl eligibility for 11 straight seasons while its basketball team has made the NCAA Tournament in two of the last three years.

The Pac-12, which now consists of just Oregon State and Washington State, will welcome Boise State, Fresno State, Colorado State, Gonzaga (non-football member), San Diego State and Utah State in 2026. Texas State would be the eighth football member needed by the 2026 season.

The Bobcats transitioned from FCS to FBS in 2012 and had some growing pains, including a stretch from 2015 to 2022 in which they didn't win more than four games in a season. In recent years, however, Texas State has turned a corner under new head coach G.J. Kinne. It went 8-5 in each of the last two seasons, also capping off the last two years with wins in the First Responder Bowl.

Of course, the Bobcats would face a higher level of competition, but a move from the Sun Belt to the Pac-12 would generate more money and likely help Kinne bring in better recruits.