5 2025 NHL Free Agents Who Will Be Overvalued This Offseason

Free agency can sometimes be a fool's paradise in the NHL, and this offseason could be especially dangerous for teams given how many of them have extra money to burn, given the rising salary cap.

When you enter free agency, you are typically paying for players who have already played their best hockey for somebody else. In most cases, if they were worth the money they would have received on the open market, their former team would have probably made a more concerted effort to keep them.

Superstars rarely leave their original teams, and most long-term free agency contracts tend to end poorly for the team that offers them. It is far more common for those deals to end in a buyout or salary retained trained than it is for the player to finish the contract with the team.

So with that in mind, let's take a look at five pending unrestricted free agents this summer that might end up getting overvalued on the open market.

Sam Bennett

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The Sam Bennett free agency is going to be complete madness, from the narratives to the arguments about his value, to the contract he might end up getting.

Nobody is going to be reasonable or sensible about this.

Is Bennett a very good player that every general manager in the NHL would want? Absolutely, he is. He plays a relentlessly physical game, even crossing the line from clean into dirty, he is productive, and he has proven to be a clutch playoff performer.

Is he a huge part of a Panthers team that has made it to three consecutive Stanley Cup Finals and might win two in a row? You bet he is.

But part of what makes Bennett such a valuable player for the Panthers isn't just his play or production, or clutch moments.

It's the fact that he has the 10th largest salary cap number on the team and plays the fifth most minutes among the team's forwards.

He is an important player, but he is not the player. He isn't cheap, but he isn't expensive. He's a bargain.

He is not going to be a bargain on his next contract, which has been rumored to be in the $9 or $10 million range.

Bennett, in his current role and current salary, is a tremendous value and significant player. Bennett, as a team's highest-paid player and one of their most-used forwards, is not going to make the type of impact anybody expects.

Buyer beware.

Mikael Granlund

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Granlund deserves a ton of credit for rebuilding his career the past two years, and is coming off back-to-back strong seasons with the San Jose Sharks and Dallas Stars.

Since the start of the 2023-24 season, Granlund has 126 total points in 152 regular-season games, while also having some big moments in the playoffs for the Stars.

Overall, the offensive numbers are fine.

But there needs to be some context with them.

When he was playing in San Jose for a year-and-a-half, he was getting top-line ice-time and power-play time and consistently put into positions where he should be producing. Even bad teams are going to have leading scorers, and somebody is going to have to get the points. His offense dropped off a little when he went to Dallas and took on a smaller role.

The other concern: He is going to be 33 years old at the start of the season and turn 34 halfway through. At some point, he is going to hit a wall offensively, and when that happens, there is nothing else to his game defensively or physically that could help make up for that.

He might be a fine player to have on a roster as a depth playmaker. But if he gets a big deal in free agency over multiple years, it may not age gracefully.

Ivan Provorov

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It's not a good year to need a top-pairing defenseman in free agency.

Aaron Ekblad is probably the top player available, and then there is a pretty significant drop-off after him.

Provorov is one of the potential free agency minefields that could be on the open market. He's still under the age of 30 in a thin free agent market, has decent enough offensive numbers and plays a lot of minutes. Those three things all meet at the confluence of "free agency hell."

The problem with all of that while he has some offense to his game, it's not a ton. He plays a lot of minutes, but he doesn't play them overly well. At least not at a top-pairing level.

Somebody is going to get desperate defense. Somebody is probably going to spend too much money over too many years and have some regrets.

Brock Boeser

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Boeser and the Vancouver Canucks were not able to come to terms on a new deal, resulting in the veteran winger hitting the unrestricted free agent market.

He's going to be a tough player to evaluable.

On one hand, he is only one year removed from a 40-goal season and has some really good finishing ability. He's got a good shot; you can usually pencil him in for 20-25 goals in a normal year.

There is always going to be a market for goal-scorers, but there should be some question as to what type of goal-scorer Boeser is. Both in the short-term and the long-term.

Is he the 40-goal guy we saw two years ago?

Is he the 18-goal guy we saw the year before that?

Is he the 25-goal guy we saw this season?

There is a wide range of options here.

And if he's not the 40-goal guy, does he do enough away from the puck and when he is not scoring goals to make an impact?

Boeser might end up being the "good player, bad contract" situation on his next team.

Matt Gryzelcyk

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You might not have Matt Gryzelcyk high on your free agency watch list, but he might end up getting a bigger contract than you are anticipating for one simple reason.

He had 40 points this past season.

He had 40 points this past season as a defenseman, in a contract year, going into a thin free agency class for defensemen, especially defensemen who can score.

All of that is happening under the backdrop of a significantly rising salary cap.

That is perfect timing for a big contract.

Grzelcyk is a useful player. He can move the puck well enough, contribute on a power play and be a great second-unit player (and perhaps even first unit in a pinch if needed). He will put up some points in the right situation. But that's the key. It needs to be the right situation. If a team sees a 40-point defenseman and tries to make a big investment in him with the hopes he can be a difference-maker for them, they are setting themselves up for some disappointment.