NBA Finals Bracket 2025 Odds, Box Score Predictions for Thunder vs. Pacers Game 4
In Game 3 of the 2025 NBA Finals, Bennedict Mathurin led all scorers, T.J. McConnell was tops in steals and reigning MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had his most turnovers since December.
For those wagerers who like to bet the unexpected, that outing—a 116-107 triumph for the Indiana Pacers over the Oklahoma City Thunder—delivered on almost all fronts.
With a quick turnaround for Friday's Game 4 (8:30 p.m. ET on ABC), should the betting world bank on more of the same? Or will this tilt play out closer to expectations? We'll wager a guess while highlighting a few of our favorite absolutely-can't-miss (but-sorry-if-they-do) box-score bets.
Game 4 Odds
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Spread: Oklahoma City (-6)
Over/Under: 226.5
Money Line: Oklahoma City (-235; bet $235 to win $100); Indiana (+194; bet $100 to win $194)
They're Going Over 226.5 Points
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The word coming out of Game 3 was that the Pacers played with more force, and the Thunder never matched that. They sound ready to go blow-for-blow this time around.
"They were more aggressive, more forceful," Gilgeous-Alexander told reporters. "... We've got to apply that pressure back, especially if you want to beat a team like that on the road."
Oklahoma City should be more up for a track meet, an environment Indiana is clearly comfortable with. The Thunder have more than enough athletes and shot-makers to thrive in the open court. Ditto for the Pacers.
Oklahoma City can and likely will take much better care of the basketball. Indiana can shoot it a lot better from three (9-of-27 in Game 3). Chet Holmgren can do more with his opportunities—or the Thunder can send those touches elsewhere if he doesn't. There are no shortage of Pacers' support scorers who are capable of better showings in Game 4.
Both teams probably feel as if they can play better, more crisp offense than they did in Game 3—when these teams combined 223 points. The slightest uptick in volume or efficiency is all that's needed for them to topple the over/under with ease.
Tyrese Haliburton Will Fill It Up Again
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While the Pacers are built to follow Tyrese Haliburton's lead, he's also, in a way, dependent on their production. So much of his impact often stems from his playmaking, so he's reliant on the role players around him to convert their clean looks.
Role players tend to perk up in front of their home fans in the playoffs. And that's basically what happened during Game 3, when Indiana's bench popped for 49 points while Aaron Nesmith and Andrew Nembhard shot a combined 6-of-10 from the field. The Pacers still needed Haliburton to guide them (he led them in shots and tallied their second-most points), but they also helped him be more effective.
And when he's on top of his game, he overstuffs the stat sheet. In Game 3, he nearly tallied a triple-double as he finished with 22 points, 11 assists and nine rebounds. He only needs to replicate so much of that production to top his combined points, rebounds and assists prop wager of 32.5.
It is, admittedly, a big number and one he didn't clear in the first two contests of this series. That said, he has several paths to get there. A big scoring outburst could do a ton of the heavy lifting (he's had 30-plus points three times this playoffs). His table-setting might get him a third of the way there (10 double-digit assist efforts in 19 playoff games). Plus, he's a candidate to go bananas on the boards (four games this postseason with nine-plus rebounds, including two in this series).
Win or lose, it feels like the Pacers will bring their best in front of their home fans before this series shifts back to the Sooner State. And that means Haliburton will have his fingerprints all over the stat sheet.
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