The Most Overhyped Players at Every Position in Fantasy Football in 2015

Hype can be a dangerous thing in fantasy football.

Sure, it's great to know who this year's rising stars and hot sleepers are. The problem begins when everyone starts reading the same reports. Writing their own takes based on those reports. Targeting the same players based on what they've read and/or written.

That, in turn, drives up the asking price of those sleepers and value plays. A running back who was being drafted close to his fantasy floor rises nearer to his ceiling. That late-round lottery ticket wideout goes from $1 scratcher to one of those big, shiny ones that cost 20 bucks.

In 2014, everyone and their mother (hi Mom!) were convinced that San Diego Chargers tight end Ladarius Green was going to take the reins from Antonio Gates. Green's Average Draft Position rose steadily throughout the summer, to the point he was drafted ahead of the future Hall of Famer.

Well, Gates caught 12 touchdowns and finished as a top-five tight end in most scoring systems. Green caught 19 passes all season long.

With that cautionary tale in mind, here are a handful of players for whom hype levels are redlining in 2015.

QB: Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks

David Goldman/Associated Press

Average Draft Position: QB4 (37th overall)

I will be the first person to admit that I'm an unabashed fan of Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson. My admiration for him as a player borders on man-crush levels.

And Wilson is coming off a phenomenal season, both from an NFL and fantasy football perspective. Wilson set career highs in passing yards (3,475), rushing yards (849) and rushing touchdowns (six) en route to leading the Seahawks to their second straight Super Bowl appearance.

Wilson also posted the best fantasy finish of his three-year career, finishing fifth at his position in NFL.com default fantasy scoring.

With Wilson headed into the final year of his rookie deal, there has been speculation that Wilson could be set to become the highest-paid player in NFL history. Doug Farrar of Sports Illustrated might not be willing to go quite that far, but you'll get no argument from him that Wilson's worth a whole lotta money:

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Is Russell Wilson a franchise quarterback? I would posit that the answer lies somewhere between “Yes” and “Well, duh... of course he is.” He's accomplished things no other quarterback has accomplished through his first three seasons, and while he's had a lot of help, the Seahawks weren't going to win all those games and reach the Super Bowl twice with Tarvaris Jackson, Charlie Whitehurst or Matt Flynn under center.

"

Wilson's asking price has gone way up in fantasy drafts as well. A player who was barely being drafted as a weekly starter a year ago is now going ahead of Drew Brees of the New Orleans Saints.

And that's no bueno.

As things stand right now, fantasy owners are counting on Wilson bettering last year's career stats just to justify his asking price. Not exceed, mind you—justify.

And this is a quarterback for the team that attempted the fewest passes in the NFL in 2014.

Yes, much of Wilson's fantasy production is tied to his ability to hurt teams with his legs. But consider this—assuming that the Seahawks and Wilson do agree to an extension, do you think the team that just invested well over $100 million in Wilson is going to want him to carry the ball 118 times in 2015?

Wilson's a great young player and a fine fantasy option.

But with a top-five sticker price?

Pass.

RB: Todd Gurley, St. Louis Rams

Jeff Roberson/Associated Press

Average Draft Position: RB20 (44th overall)

You aren't going to get any argument that Todd Gurley is a talented, young running back. You won't get much that he's the best rookie ball-carrier to come down the pipe in some time.

Mike Mayock of the NFL Network lauded the Rams' selection of Gurley with the No. 10 overall pick, comparing the 6'1", 221-pounder to Marshawn Lynch of the Seattle Seahawks:

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I like the Marshawn Lynch comparison. St. Louis wants to win games the same way that Seattle and San Francisco do in the same division, that is by running the football and playing great defense and special teams. Gurley has Olympic-type speed. I love this pick for St. Louis, which already has a great defense and Gurley will help out Nick Foles.

"

It would appear that fantasy owners agree. Last year, Bishop Sankey of the Tennessee Titans was chosen as the first rookie running back in fantasy drafts, with an average draft position at My Fantasy League of RB25.

Gurley is coming off the board a full five slots higher, ahead of veterans like Jonathan Stewart of the Carolina Panthers and Joique Bell of the Detroit Lions.

There's just one problem—one huge, glaring problem.

Gurley tore his ACL last November while at Georgia.

Yes, the recovery time for such an injury isn't what it used to be. And reports from Rams' camp have been almost universally positive.

However, even if Gurley is ready to rock for Week 1, as Thomas Emerick of Sporting News points out, we're likely to see a lot of second-year pro Tre Mason, at least early in the season:

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Fisher's approach to managing Gurley's workload will set the ceiling for September and October, where we'll probably see a snap limit and heavy dose of Mason. Gurley owners will hope this step takes place in August. St. Louis also drafted four desperately needed offensive linemen, and this run offense will depend on a young line jelling together and finding starters by fire.

"

With Mason in the fold, there's no reason for the Rams to rush Gurley. And yet he's being drafted like a Week 1 bell cow.

Those who pull that trigger better hope it turns out better than Sankey in 2014.

WR: Brandin Cooks, New Orleans Saints

Rogelio Solis/Associated Press

Average Draft Position: WR16 (41st overall)

There may not be a more hyped player in all of fantasy football than New Orleans Saints wide receiver Brandin Cooks. Keith Lipscomb of ESPN was one of any number of pundits who have gushed about Cooks' potential as the new No. 1 receiver in the Big Easy:

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I think the Saints are going to turn up the volume in Cooks' game in his sophomore season. In his first five games, he averaged just 4.1 yards at the catch (how far downfield he caught the ball), but in his final five games before his injury, that number was 12.0. You know the Saints still want to throw the football but don't have their top-two pass-catchers from last season. Cooks is a dynamic talent, and this season he'll get every opportunity to show the masses, including more chances to make plays down the field.

"

It isn't just fantasy types, either. Chris Wesseling of NFL.com also wrote that Cooks could be on the verge of a breakout in his second NFL season:

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Now that Jimmy Graham and Kenny Stills have been shipped off to Seattle and Miami, respectively, there could be as many as 175-200 targets up for grabs in the Saints' aerial attack. With only a declining Marques Colston ahead of him in the pecking order, Cooks is sure to be a featured player after dominating offseason practices.

"

And it's possible that breakout could happen. Cooks showed himself to be dangerous in the open field last year before a broken thumb ended his season, and with both Stills and especially Graham gone, someone is going to have to pick up the slack.

The problem is that with all the buzz surrounding Cooks, his ADP has been steadily climbing. A player with one season of 550 receiving yards is being taken as a high-end fantasy WR2.

And for Lipscomb's colleague Field Yates, that cost is just too high:

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There's a lot to like about Brandin Cooks' game, as he's shifty, elusive and a menace to tackle in open space. But he plays a position -- slot receiver -- that isn't often conducive to finding the end zone frequently. He's slotted as our 16th wide receiver, but I simply think the lack of touchdowns will be an issue from a fantasy perspective.

"

The issue isn't even Cooks per se. It's the hype that's sucked all the value from a player now being drafted far closer to his fantasy ceiling than the floor.

TE: Julius Thomas, Jacksonville Jaguars

John Raoux/Associated Press

Average Draft Position: TE6 (75th overall)

OK, so "hype" may not exactly be the best word to describe the buzz surrounding Julius Thomas, especially in fantasy circles.

In fact, he needs a hug.

Evan Silva's comments about Thomas over at Yahoo Sports more-or-less sum up the fantasy community's feelings about Thomas moving to the Jacksonville Jaguars in free agency this year:

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Julius Thomas was easily the biggest fantasy "loser" of this year's free agency period, going from a Broncos offense that ranked first and second in the NFL in scoring in 2013 and 2014, to a Jags team that finished 32nd and 32nd in those seasons. While Thomas may prove a useful real-life pickup for Jacksonville, the bottom could fall out on his fantasy production.

"

I told you he needed a hug. Although that $9 million a season the Jaguars forked over probably makes the 27-year-old feel a little bit better.

If I need to explain to you why going from the fantasy penthouse that is Peyton Manning in Denver to the fantasy outhouse that is Jacksonville and Blake Bortles, then might I recommend fantasy bowling? I hear fantasy cricket is—whatever happens during a cricket jiminy or whatever it's called.

And yet Thomas is still being selected sixth at the tight end spot on average.

That's ahead of Zach Ertz of the Philadelphia Eagles, who could be set for a big uptick in targets this year.

Ahead of Jordan Cameron of the Miami Dolphins, who has the added advantage of an honest-to-goodness NFL quarterback throwing him passes in Ryan Tannehill.

And far ahead of veteran Owen Daniels, who replaced Thomas in Denver.

Have these people seen Bortles and the Jaguars play?

D/ST: Seattle Seahawks

Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

Average Draft Position: D/ST1 (68th overall)

From an NFL perspective, there's no arguing that the Seattle Seahawks have one of the NFL's very best defenses. In 2014, the Seahawks led the NFL in total defense. The year before, the Seahawks led the NFL in total defense.

Scoring defense? First in 2014. First in 2013.

Two years ago, all was well. The Seahawks also ranked fourth in NFL.com default fantasy scoring. Not great, but nothing to cry about.

Last year? Tears galore. The Seahawks free-fell to 23rd.

The change was brought about by big plays—or more appropriately, the lack of them. The Seahawks dropped from eighth in the NFL in sacks two seasons ago to 20th in 2014. In 2013, the Seahawks ranked fourth in takeaways. Last year, that number plummeted to 21st.

Yes, those numbers could rebound in 2015. Or not. It's not as if the Seahawks made big upgrades to the pass rush in the offseason, and turnovers are a fluky stat.

Spending a sixth-round pick (in a 12-team fantasy football league) on any team defense isn't advisable.

Spending one on a fantasy defense (that finished outside the top 20 a year ago) because it's a great NFL defense is even worse.

It's falling for the hype.

Average Draft Position Data courtesy of Fantasy Pros.