5 Reasons Denver Nuggets Can Extend Oklahoma City Thunder NBA Playoff Series to Game 7
The Denver Nuggets were never likely to win their second-round series with the Oklahoma City Thunder.
That was true before it started, and it's certainly true now. Following OKC's 112-105 win on Tuesday, the Thunder are now an overwhelming minus-1800 favorite to advance to the conference finals.
But even if Denver's chances are slim, they're still there. It's not quite time to fully panic yet, and the reasons to remain calm can be found below.
Game 6 Is In Denver
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The Nuggets just lost Game 4 in Denver on Sunday, and OKC had the best road net rating in the league in the regular season.
Home-court advantage in an individual game may not be the trump card it might be in most other situations, but it's still better than the alternative.
Denver is now very much in "one game at a time" mode, and having the first one at Ball Arena helps.
The Nuggets were a little underwhelming at home in 2024-25, but during what we'll call the Nikola Jokić MVPs era, which started in 2020-21, their third in home winning percentage.
Perhaps more importantly, Jamal Murray, who was 10-of-27 in the Game 5 loss to OKC, has a career playoff box plus/minus of 4.4 at home, compared to 2.4 on the road.
When he plays well, regardless of setting, Denver is a significantly tougher team to beat. And the chances of him playing well go up at Ball Arena.
Denver's Good On the Road
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Of course, winning Game 6 is mere survival. To advance past the top-seeded Thunder, Denver has to take two in a row, with the second back in OKC.
The Thunder went 35-6 there in the regular season. And after Tuesday's win, they're now plus-48 at the Paycom center in this series.
Winning there in a Game 7 will take a monumental effort, but there's some evidence to suggest the Nuggets can beat those odds (though again, they likely won't).
First of all, Denver took Game 1 in OKC. It had a double-digit lead in the second half of Game 5. And over the same five-year stretch referenced above, the Nuggets were second in the league in road winning percentage.
If they make it to a Game 7 and lose, it will be because of their lack of depth and the talent disparity between these two rosters, not because Denver will be rattled by playing away from home.
Defense Is Keeping Them In Games
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Denver's defense was a problem throughout the regular season. It was 21st in the league in points allowed per 100 possessions. It seemed nearly incapable of containing anyone on the perimeter. Rim protection, in most games, was nonexistent.
But the effort level from Jokić has ratcheted up dramatically in the postseason. Murray, Christian Braun and Aaron Gordon have all looked more committed on that end.
And even with the blowout loss in Game 2, Denver is holding OKC to 113.4 points per 100 possessions in this series, which is well short of the Thunder's regular-season mark.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging more than four fewer points per game than he did in the regular season and shooting over three percent worse from the field.
The improved defense hasn't prevented the Nuggets from falling into this hole they may not be able to climb out of, but it's at least kept them in four of the five games. And if they maintain the effort level and discipline they've shown outside of Game 2, they should have a puncher's chance at the end of Game 6 (and potentially Game 7).
Jokić and Murray Have Overcome Series Deficits in the Past
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Murray and Jokić have never face a team as statistically stout as OKC in a playoff series, but they have clawed all the way back from bigger series deficits.
In 2019-20, they went down 3-1 in the first round to the Utah Jazz. During the three straight wins that sealed that series for Denver, Jokić averaged 27.7 points, 8.0 rebounds and 5.7 assists, while Murray averaged 36.3 poitns and 6.0 assists.
The next round, they found themselves down 3-1 again, this time to the Los Angeles Clippers. And during the three-game winning streak that ended that series for Denver, Murray put up 29.0 points and 5.7 assists, while Jokić went for 24.0 points, 16.7 rebounds, 8.3 rebounds, 2.0 blocks and 1.3 steals.
Combine that with the championship run in 2023, and it's safe to say Denver has the experience necessary to shock the NBA world one more time.
Denver Has the Best Player in the World
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This series has proven that OKC has a deeper, more athletic and more modern roster. The Thunder have set the tone in every game by playing with an almost over-the-top level of physicality.
And in all likelihood, they're going to eventually overwhelm the Nuggets and head to the Western Conference Finals.
But throughout NBA history, simply having the best individual player in a series has often gone a long way toward determining the winner. And despite SGA's monster regular season and Jokić's struggles in Games 2, 3 and 4 of this series, it's clear that Denver has the best individual player in this series.
On Tuesday, despite being hounded by that almost impossibly physical defense for a fifth straight game, and while dealing with an elbow injury that's been causing him problems throubhout the series, Jokić went for 44 points on 17-of-25 shooting. He added 15 rebounds, five assists and two steals, for good measure.
And somehow, lines like that have almost become a given for Denver's center. They're why he trails only Michael Jordan in career playoff box plus/minus. And his ability to go off on any given night is why the Nuggets always have a chance against anyone.
