Dallas Mavericks Face Cloudy Future During Dirk Nowitzki's Final Days
What seemed like a certain tank job for the Dallas Mavericks following the DeAndre Jordan rejection has turned into a desperate attempt to remain relevant.
Mavericks owner Mark Cuban was ready to throw in the towel when Jordan decided to go back on his verbal commitment to the team, opting to return to the Los Angeles Clippers instead. He admitted as much in an interview with 1310 The Ticket in Dallas:
"Literally, we wanted to get Wes, he was a target for us all summer and we wanted to get DeAndre as well, but if we got shut out, we weren't going to try and fill the roster. We literally had the discussion that if we couldn't get a serious free agent, whether it was DeAndre or one of the others guys that are still out there or any of the earlier ones that went, that it was time to take a step back.
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However, the recent roster additions imply that Dallas is trying to scrap through what remains of the free-agency crop in order to have a slight chance to make the playoffs.
Dallas swung a deal for Zaza Pachulia, will sign Deron Williams to a two-year deal once he clears waivers and kept some of its key bench cogs from last season. And that's in addition to securing the services of versatile wing Wesley Matthews.
While it's debatable whether this short-term priority is the right course of action for the franchise, it appears that salvaging Dirk Nowitzki's final years in the league is of utmost importance to the Mavs.
What Could've Been
A core featuring Nowitzki, Jordan, Matthews and Chandler Parsons likely wouldn't have been enough to challenge the top dogs in the Western Conference this season, but it would have given the team a clear direction.
With those pieces in place, Dallas would've been a playoff team next year. More importantly, the aforementioned foursome would've helped attract top free agents in the summer of 2016, when the Mavericks—and just about every other team in the league—will have space for another max deal thanks to the rising cap.
The fact that the cap is jumping renders Dallas' team-building strategy useless.
The Mavs have carefully filled their books over the last couple of years in order to have a chance to land a big fish in free agency each summer. That type of competitive rebuilding wasn't a bad idea, but what made it effective was the fact that only a handful of teams each summer had sufficient cap space for major free-agent additions.
Since almost every team in the league will have such a luxury in 2016, this summer was the one during which Dallas really had to spend big and establish a solid core.
With Jordan in play, Dallas would have killed two birds with one stone. The Mavs would have been a force to be reckoned with over the next two years while also having young players to build around for the future. Instead, said future once again takes a back seat, as Cuban and Co. are forced to revert to signing veterans on short-term deals.
Neither head coach Rick Carlisle nor Nowitzki would conceivably buy into the mentality of tanking a season. With that in mind, Dallas has managed to make the best out of a dire situation.
Staying Competitive For Dirk
With Williams and Pachulia filling out the starting lineup, Dallas will be competitive, but making the playoffs is a long shot. Out of last season's eight that made the postseason in the West, only the Portland Trail Blazers will be taking a step back. The Oklahoma City Thunder will likely take their spot, while the likes of the Utah Jazz, Sacramento Kings and Phoenix Suns figure to be better.
Add to the mix that the Mavericks will not be rushing back Parsons (knee) and Matthews (Achilles) from their respective injuries, as noted by Bryan Gutierrez of Mavs Outsider, and the immediate short-term outlook looks grim.
Considering Nowitzki's financial sacrifice and how much he has meant for Dallas over the years, it wouldn't be fair for the Mavericks to blatantly throw away a whole season as his career nears its end. Unfortunately, that also means that the Mavs are likely to be stuck in the dreaded purgatory of the NBA that is the ninth or 10th seed.
Parsons and Matthews will eventually come back, which should ensure that Dallas' 2016 first-round draft pick (top-seven-protected, according to RealGM) is conveyed to Boston next summer. It's a difficult situation to be in, but it's the price the Mavs will have to pay for the failed Rajon Rondo experiment.
If Carlisle and Nowtizki conceded to biting the bullet and throwing the season away, it would've been hard for Dallas to bottom out anyway, even if it filled the roster with mediocre placeholders. It would've allowed young players such as Justin Anderson and Dwight Powell to develop into serviceable rotation cogs but wouldn't have guaranteed Dallas a top-seven draft pick.
That's why there is no clear answer as to what the right move for Dallas was after the Jordan debacle. A high draft pick would've been nice, but the Mavs will look to immediately reload next summer anyway. Perhaps landing Williams and allowing him to mesh with the team is worth more in the big picture than a young player who would struggle to find minutes going into the 2016-17 campaign.
Dallas will initially try to win as many games as possible next year, but it won't be surprising if the season slips away early. The West is merciless toward teams that fall behind.
Landing a legitimate superstar next summer will be hard, especially since there will hardly be any up for grabs outside of Kevin Durant (who should stay with the Thunder, but could reportedly entertain the Mavs, among other teams, according to CBS Sports' Ken Berger). Even so, there will certainly be some great players available, and adding a couple of them could provide Dallas and Nowitzki with one last opportunity at a deep postseason run together.
Big men like Joakim Noah and Al Jefferson will hit the market, while young prospects such as Donatas Motiejunas and Jonas Valanciunas will be restricted free agents. Parsons managed to convince Jordan to commit to Dallas before the sudden change of heart, and his recruiting skills will come in handy when all hell breaks loose next summer.
While most teams, contenders and rebuilding projects alike have clear multiyear plans, Dallas will continue to stroll into the unknown. With a tough season ahead, the only apparent way to regain momentum is to nail next summer's free agency to perfection. That's something the Mavericks haven't manged to do since breaking up the 2011 championship team.
Another failure to do so could set the Mavs on a painful rebuilding path during the inevitable post-Nowitzki era.
You can follow me on Twitter: @VytisLasaitis
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