2025 NFL Draft: Bust Meter for Potential First-Round QBs

Quarterbacks define a draft class. No matter how everything else breaks, the position is far too important to not be a major influence.

The 1983 class is still discussed with reverence after it included John Elway, Jim Kelly, Dan Marino and three other first-round picks. Conversely, the 2022 class was seen as and has been confirmed as the worst quarterback crop of the last quarter-century, as evidenced by Kenny Pickett being the only first-round pick.

This year, two quarterbacks—Miami's Cam Ward and Colorado's Shedeur Sanders—are considered legitimate first-round talents. Ole Miss' Jaxson Dart and Alabama's Jalen Milroe have been invited to attend this year's draft in Green Bay, Wisconsin, and both have a shot at hearing their names called during the opening frame.

While hope springs eternal during the draft itself, all four won't be franchise quarterbacks. They'll fall all over the spectrum of success.

But how should we view them, a week before the draft begins? The bust-o-meter is the entirely scientific and completely unassailable way to gauge the possibility of each incoming prospect turning into an elite quarterback.

Cam Ward, Miami

AP

Bust Meter: Franchise Lite (Top 15 QB)

Context is always important in talent evaluation, because each draft class stands on its own. But these all-important roster decisions aren't made in a vacuum.

Miami's Cam Ward is QB1 in this class and clearly established himself as the top gunslinger months ago. He remains the favorite to be the No. 1 overall pick and he's every bit of a legitimate top-10 talent alongside the likes of Colorado's Travis Hunter, Penn State's Abdul Carter and Michigan's Mason Graham.

However, his Bleacher Report Scouting Department grade places him on the fringe of the top 10 quarterbacks over the last five draft cycles. He's basically a full grade lower than the likes of Trevor Lawrence, Caleb Williams and Drake Maye entering the professional ranks.

None of this is to say B/R's grades are infallible. Everyone misses, as the department did with Jayden Daniels a year ago. The comparison is meant to show an approximation of where Ward sits in relation to the overall pool of talent that's entered the league as of late.

From a positive standpoint, the reigning ACC Player of the Year has tremendous arm talent and significant playmaking creativity. He can shine when things break down around him, which is now a significant part of being a successful NFL quarterback. At the same time, he had a tendency to play hero ball and make multiple ill-advised throws.

In the end, Ward should become a quality starter, though his ups and downs will vary too greatly to be consistently considered among the NFL's best quarterbacks.

Shedeur Sanders, Colorado

AP

Bust Meter: Dreaming of Jared Goff (Fringe Top 10 Upside)

The predraft process hasn't been kind to Shedeur Sanders. Even though he was viewed as a first-round talent throughout the majority of the cycle, the perception about his standing has changed.

Questions about arm talent, playmaking ability, upside and attitude have all arised.

"The reason why people give him so much grief. It's just, when you talk to him, he's just different," an anonymous NFL executive told ESPN's Kalyn Kahler. "He's very much a thoughtful person. Sometimes that comes off a little bit combative because he's going to ask questions, and he really wants to think through what you're saying. He's not really a 'yes man' person. He's going to really have his own thoughts."

Any belief of personality issues aside, upside strikes at the heart of these questions.

Sanders doesn't necessarily fit the mold of a modern franchise quarterback, in that he's a prototypical pocket passer. He's at his best when he's working in rhythm and on time, which showcases his uncanny accuracy. He doesn't have the strongest arm. He's a fair-to-solid athlete. Physically, he's never going to be confused with the Josh Allens and Lamar Jacksons of the world.

Yet he has been highly successful and productive at two different programs and levels of college football.

At this point, Sanders is basically being knocked for doing the primary function of the quarterback position: operating the offensive scheme and delivering the football.

Jared Goff ran into the same problem with the Los Angeles Rams, hence why the organization traded him to the Detroit Lions for Matthew Stafford, who expanded Sean McVay's offense and helped the organization win a Super Bowl. Goff, meanwhile, is one of the league's best quarterbacks. He's coming off a career season.

Will Sanders ever reach peak Goff? Even if he does, is that good enough to win a Super Bowl? It hasn't been in Los Angeles or Detroit so far.

Jaxson Dart, Ole Miss

FR171019 AP

Bust Meter: System of a Down (High Risk Investment)

Sometimes it's difficult to separate a prospect from his surroundings.

They should never be judged by the logo on the side of the helmet, the name on the back of the jersey or previous prospects who may have preceded them. At the same time, an understanding of what's asked of them is vital to the process.

Case in point, Ole Miss' Jaxson Dart's evaluation is muddied by the Rebels' offensive scheme.

Three years ago, Matt Corral came out of the same program running Lane Kiffin's system, which doesn't include a lot of NFL concepts or throws. Instead, the passing game is simplified and made ultra-quarterback friendly. To be fair, Kiffin is doing what he believes is best for his team to win, which is his job.

However, it's not the best situation for a quarterback prospect when looking at translatable aspects of their games. Corral became a third-round pick and was out of the NFL within two years.

To be clear, Dart is considered a superior prospect because of his natural throwing ability, contributions in the run game, and some NFL-caliber throws can be found on his tape. But similar concerns can still be found.

"As a result of Ole Miss's heavily schemed offense, processing past the first read is slower than expected for a senior quarterback," B/R scout Dame Parson wrote. "Dart is accustomed to favorable schemed/open routes that he struggles to quickly get through his reads and find the next open target if the initial read is covered. Dart does not anticipate throwing lanes well at this stage of his career. He is a see-it, throw-it style passer. Instead of anticipating the receiver's breaks and throwing before completion, he waits for the target to separate and work themselves open. This leads to holding onto the football and inviting pressure."

Dart will need time, patience and an organizational plan to have a legitimate chance of developing into a franchise quarterback.

QB Jalen Milroe, Alabama

FR171561 AP

Bust Meter: Raw Material (Boom-or-Bust Prospect)

Alabama's Jalen Milroe is arguably the most intriguing prospect in this year's class, because he presents as much upside, if not more, than any other quarterback.

Milroe's error lines have a rare inverse quality to them, because his athleticism will automatically make him one of the most dangerous weapons in the NFL as a runner, thus giving him a rather high talent floor.

Yet much-needed development as a passer limits his ceiling to the point where it descends beyond the value of his athletic floor. Think of Anthony Richardson when discussing this particular phenomenon.

Though the previous analogy is somewhat unfair to Milroe, who is a far more experienced starter and productive passer coming out of Alabama than Richardson was at Florida.

Still, the reigning William V. Campbell Trophy winner (academic Heisman) needs to dramatically improve his footwork in order to become a more consistent passer. Milroe has a strong arm capable of really testing defenses vertically. It's the short-to-intermediate ranges where he'll spray passes. He really struggled during Senior Bowl week when asked to work from under center and make precise throws into smaller windows.

Milroe isn't a lost cause as a passer, though. He can make every throw. The issue comes down to consistency and completing the passes he should complete. The 22-year-old prospect must hone his mechanics, do a better job trusting his eyes and just letting it rip.

Furthermore, Milroe's unique athletic profile comes with an unwritten stipulation: Whoever drafts him must have a plan on how to properly build around and deploy him. His athleticism is a weapon. Use it, while allowing him to develop as a passer. There's no need to rush him into the lineup, yet he can still be utilized in offensive sub-packages in the short term.

Without a plan or commitment to a run-first quarterback prospect, the organization will have failed Milroe before he ever takes an NFL field.