Playing Fact or Fiction with MLB's Biggest Stories Heating Up Spring Training

Welcome to one of those bizarre split-realities that Major League Baseball slips into every now and again. The regular season has begun for two teams, but it's still spring training for the other 28.

If you're getting bored of it, well, that's fair. It is spring training, after all. But there are some juicy storylines out there, including some that demand further inspection. They're like inkblot tests, teasing shapes that could be either something (i.e., a dog) or nothing (i.e., not a dog).

Let's run through a handful and see if we can't make sense of what's going on. If the implied narrative is believable, it's fact. If not, it's fiction.

Blue Jays Still Think They Can Extend Guerrero

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. gave the Toronto Blue Jays until February 18 to sign him to an extension, lest he head into the season mere months from entering free agency. The deadline came and went with no new contract.

The four-time All-Star did not close the door, though. And as Shi Davidi of Sportsnet noted, Blue Jays CEO Mark Shapiro still thinks there's a deal to be made:

This is all well and good, but the Blue Jays' intentions are only as good as the numbers they're willing to offer Guerrero.

The 26-year-old wants at least a 14-year deal, with Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reporting he also desires $500 million in present-day value. According to Jon Heyman of the New York Post, Toronto's last offer was for $400-450 million in present-day value because of deferrals.

Guerrero's terms are interesting because of how they relate to the 15-year, $765 million deal Juan Soto, a fellow 26-year-old, got from the New York Mets. Guerrero's $500 million price tag is 65 percent of Soto's guarantee, which maps nicely onto how valuable he's been per 162 games (4.2 WAR) relative to Soto (6.3 WAR).

Save for a .288 batting average, however, Guerrero hasn't been as productive through his age-25 season as Soto. And as profiles go, a right-handed-hitting, right-handed-throwing first baseman with a power-first bat isn't as safe as a left-handed-hitting outfielder with power and discipline in equal supply.

When Dan Szymborski of FanGraphs crunched the numbers, he found $500 million to be on the high end for what the rest of the slugger's career is worth. The Blue Jays therefore have a leg to stand on in aiming under that threshold.

Them going up feels about as likely as Guerrero going down. He's too close to free agency to be less than all-in on the upside of his earning power.

Verdict: Fiction

Red Sox Are Making Interesting Moves at DH and 2B

Elsewhere in the American League East, the Boston Red Sox seem to have decided on a designated hitter and have made things mightily interesting at second base.

Manager Alex Cora said Tuesday that Masataka Yoshida is likely to start the season on the injured list. That theoretically opens up the DH spot to anyone, but not really. Rafael Devers is willing to do the job, and Cora all but announced that he will.

"We see it, right?" the Red Sox manager told reporters.

It wasn't long ago that Devers was clinging to the hot corner in defiance of the team's deal with Alex Bregman, but pragmatism seems to have won out.

The Gold Glove-winning Bregman is a better third baseman than Devers, and Chad Jennings of The Athletic subsequently reported Wednesday there are no plans for him to play third before Boston breaks camp.

As it is, the 28-year-old was late to get into Grapefruit League games as he took time to get right after rehabbing his shoulders all winter.

Meanwhile, how's this for intrigue: The Red Sox optioned Vaughn Grissom to minor league camp and are giving top prospect Marcelo Mayer reps at second base.

As he hit only .176 in 13 spring games, Grissom's reassignment was no surprise. But Mayer at the keystone? Different story. He has almost exclusively played shortstop since turning pro after the Red Sox took him at No. 4 in the 2021 draft, but he's also yet to play above Double-A in the minors.

All the same, the 22-year-old is having an eye-opening spring with a 1.025 OPS in 16 games. Fellow prospect Kristian Campbell (.500 OPS) has been colder, and ditto for the ostensibly safe option in this race, David Hamilton (.787 OPS).

"The baseball player is real," Cora said of Mayer. "He's not just a prospect. He's a baseball player."

Mayer as a second baseman thus clearly has momentum, and it's not as if Boston has decidedly better options to round out its infield.

Verdict: Fact

Jose Altuve, Left Fielder, Is Actually Happening

There's an episode of The Simpsons in which NASA devises a mission to send Homer into space, to which members of the press just keep prodding, "Is this a joke?"

Cut to 2025, and Jose Altuve in left field is the latest Space City venture that has people wondering the same thing.

As with NASA's scheme for Homer, the Houston Astros are for real that this is not a joke. Manager Joe Espada made sure of that when he revealed on Wednesday that Altuve will "play most of his games in left field."

As for how the longtime second baseman has fared in the outfield this spring, pictures say more than even 10,000 words ever could:

I'm less bullish on this experiment than I was earlier in March, but it's still worth keeping in mind that getting good defense from Altuve in left field doesn't seem to be the expected outcome here.

Rather, it's about opening up second base for Gold Glover Mauricio Dubón and clearing the DH spot for Yordan Alvarez, whose knees, frankly, can't take regular duty in the outfield.

Besides, good left field defense at Daikin Park is less necessity and more luxury. There generally aren't many fly-ball outs there in any given season, in part because so many flies find the Crawford Boxes.

Verdict: Fact

Pitching-to-Hitting Conversions May Be a New Trend

First, it was Tyler Naquin putting down his bat and glove and taking to the mound. And his decision was validated via a minor league deal with the Cleveland Guardians.

Perhaps Joey Gallo was paying attention. Because this week, he decided it was also time to hang up his bat and glove and turn to pitching.

As with Naquin, Gallo's decision comes at a time when his career as a position player is basically over. The famously whiff-prone slugger couldn't even make a Chicago White Sox team that is fresh off a 121-loss season.

It's the right time for something like this to take hold as a possible trend. MLB is already in an experimental era, whether we're talking new rules, robots, two-way players and even switch-pitchers. Why not add veteran hitters converting to pitching to the mix?

In the cases of Naquin and Gallo, the arm strength is clearly there. The former has hit 97 mph in his workouts, while the latter used to throw in the mid-90s in high school.

Still, this situation would be more promising if there was more than one example for Naquin and Gallo to follow. There's really only Anthony Gose, whose switch from outfielder to pitcher has thus far yielded 31 forgettable appearances. Now 34 years old, he's buried somewhere in the Mets' depth chart.

This is not to say it's impossible for hitters to successfully convert to pitching. Trevor Hoffman did it. Tim Wakefield did it. More recently, Kenley Jansen and Sean Doolittle did it.

The difference is that those guys made the switch when they were still youngsters in the minors. Naquin (33) and Gallo (31) are both in their 30s, and thus short on both time and potentially patience on the part of teams to pull off the conversion.

Verdict: Fiction

Other Stories Worth Considering

Can Alex Verdugo and Craig Kimbrel Help the Braves?

Sources: Rosenthal and Heyman

Kimbrel has found his way back to the Braves organization after leaving via trade in 2015. However, it's merely a minor league deal and even his still-strong ability to get whiffs doesn't cover up a veritable mountain of other deficiencies.

As for Verdugo, his $1.5 million guarantee is a low-risk gamble that he'll be able to help an outfield that is a little unsettled outside of Michael Harris II.

His most direct route to playing time will eventually be as a fourth outfielder, as he'll be a better option than Jarred Kelenic once Ronald Acuña Jr. and Jurickson Profar are healthy. If not because of his bat, then at least because of his glove.

Is a Jordan Montgomery Trade Coming?

Source: John Gambadoro of Arizona Sports 98.7 FM

Montgomery has seemed like a dead man walking in Arizona ever since Diamondbacks owner Ken Kendrick threw him under the bus last October. He's now a guy without a clear role.

Even if a trade doesn't materialize before Opening Day, there are plenty of teams that surely wish they had as many viable starters as Arizona.

Even if the Snakes must eat some of his $22.5 million salary, a move to another team feels inevitable.

How Screwed are the Padres and Pirates?

San Diego and Pittsburgh are in the same boat by way of barking elbows. Yu Darvish has inflammation in his for the former, while Jared Jones has discomfort in his for the latter.

Look, we all know what can come from elbow problems. Even in the meantime, neither Darvish nor Jones is likely to be ready for the start of the season.

That in itself has implications for both teams. The Padres can ill-afford another disadvantage to the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL West, while pitching is basically the Pirates' only hope of competing in the NL Central.

Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.