Fantasy Football: Out on a Limb 2009, Volume One

It's time for another edition of Fantasy Football Out On a Limb.

I scour the rosters to select a player who I feel will outperform a higher profile player in that given week.

I base my decisions on matchups, how the players are trending, and the ever-important hunch. 

To mix things up, i’ll occasionally do some two-on-one matchups or even pit RB or WR duos against each other. Sometimes I’ll even spot a player some points.

Scoring

Six points for rushing or receiving TD
Four points for a passing TD
0.1 points per yard for rushing or receiving
0.05 points per passing yard.

Quarterback

Brett Favre Over Eli Manning

I’ll take the oldest QB in the league over the richest one. Favre likes the attention, and I think he'll put on a show against Cleveland in his first game in purple. 

Eli faces what should be a tough Washington defense. He’ll probably win ugly, but if you start him, you probably won’t follow suit.

Running Backs

Darren Sproles Over Derrick Ward
Ward was drafted a lot earlier than Sproles in fantasy drafts, but I expect Sproles to make a bigger impact in the NFL’s opening week. LT is healthy, but San Diego should destroy Oakland, giving the diminutive back ample opportunity to produce in mop-up duty. 

Ward once again finds himself in a three-back system with Cadillac Williams and Earnest Graham. Until that mess sorts itself out, I can’t trust any of them.

 

Chester Taylor Over LenDale White

Chester Taylor should also get plenty of work in mop-up duty. I expect the Vikings to pound the Browns, and Taylor should be active both in catching and running the football. 

LenDale’s value soars when he can score and when he’s closing out football games protecting a lead. I don’t see either scenario taking place, as the Titans open with the Steelers.

Wide Receivers

Chad Ochocinco Over Dwayne Bowe
Ochocinco had a horrible 2008 season as he simply mailed it in. Thus he’ll be looking to get off to a great start in 2009. He does have to share with Chris Henry and Laveranues Coles, and he didn’t really get a chance to get in rhythm with Carson Palmer, which tempers my expectations. 

But keep in mind, Bowe faces Baltimore and has plenty of questions as well. Kansas City has the look of a very bad team. They’ll have trouble getting first downs, let alone putting points on the board.

Marques Colston Over Andre Johnson

Colston also had a down year in 2008, but that was because of injuries, not a lack of effort. With the Saints hurting at running back, Drew Brees and company will carry the load. The Detroit Lions hardly stand a chance.

Andre is an unbelievable talent, but Matt Schaub’s health is always a question mark. I fully expect the Jets to put the pressure on Schaub, which could lead to an early exit. Johnson usually has a couple of stinkers every year. I’m banking that this will be one of them.

SUPER STRETCH:

Peyton Hillis Over Clinton Portis
I don’t think I can be accused of not taking a big risk on this one. Hillis will be active for the Broncos as Josh McDaniels makes his debut against Cincinnati. Portis starts off with a tough matchup against the Giants on the road. Hillis will score, which will be the difference.

Originally published at LestersLegends.com.