Realistic Expectations for UNC's Year One Under Bill Belichick

Sometime soon, on a field in North Carolina, the greatest NFL coach to ever grace a sideline will get his first taste of spring football.

It won't look right then. Heck, it'll still probably feel weird come fall. 

Indeed, Bill Belichick’s college football arrival is very real, no matter how impossible it felt at times. With six Super Bowls in hand and a blossoming media career just getting started, the 72-year-old chose the North Carolina Tarheels as his future.

The shock of the decision has given way for curiosity. And as spring football quickly becomes the center point of programs around the country, no team will carry more intrigue from now until September 1^st.

That date, by the way, is not listed by accident. It is then that the ceremonial schedule of the CFB offseason will give way and the action will commence. A home game against TCU will get things started.

Despite his robust resume, no one is expecting Belichick to guide his team to the College Football Playoff. Well, at least no reasonable beings. With that aside, the very trajectory of Belichick’s tenure—and the direction of North Carolina—could be tied directly to what happens this fall.

So, let’s attempt to be reasonable.

According to the oddsmakers at DraftKings, North Carolina’s win total for the upcoming season has been set at 7.5 wins. 

Not too high. Not too low.

This number speaks to the uncertainty of Belichick’s arrival, the uncertainty that hovers around North Carolina’s roster (and the rosters for many teams this time of year) along with the favorability of playing in the ACC, at least on paper, in the year 2025.

In the era of the transfer portal and the NIL, the evaluation of teams at this time becomes a chore. North Carolina, with a staff overhaul, has lost more than a dozen players to the portal, which isn’t out of the norm for any team. It also welcomed roughly the same amount of players through the portal, although the additions largely haven’t been high-profile adds.

In many respects, the first few months have been Belichick-ian. They also haven’t been overly helpful in terms of aligning expectations for the present.

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As for the recent past, the Tar Heels finished last season 6-7. It’s worth noting, however, that starting quarterback Max Johnson, who is likely back this upcoming season, was lost for the season with an injury in the very first game. More on him in a moment. 

With that acknowledged, this team wasn’t dreadful. There were some lowlights, headlined by a 70-50 loss to James Madison that likely sealed the fate for then-head coach Mack Brown. The schedule was also conducive to make a bowl game, which is precisely what this team did.

The additions for the transfer portal should help, although it’s fair to question how Belichick will evaluate talent at the collegiate level. 

If we're being honest, this wasn’t exactly a strength at the end of his NFL tenure. For as much football excellence as he has produced, it’s fair to wonder what this yearly recycle will look like for a coach who has never had to deal with anything quite like it.

In Year 1, he should at least have options at quarterback. Given the importance of the position, it’s vital to a fresh start. Brown, fully recovered, will be a viable option. As will Ryan Browne, who transferred in from Purdue.

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As of now, the race feels destined to be won by one of these two.

The schedule features a game against Clemson on October 4^th, although this game will be played at home. As an additional positive, the Tar Heels will only play three games outside of the state of North Carolina.

And none of the games outside of the Tigers feel unconquerable. A road trip to Cal won’t be easy, and the opener against TCU will teach us plenty. Beyond that, games at UCF, at Syracuse and at NC State feel like the tallest challenges.

A Belichick-coached team, new roster and all, should win these games. But will they? As always, the oddsmakers have this one pretty much pegged.

Although most of the games on the schedule don’t feel particularly daunting, North Carolina isn’t exactly oozing with talent, either. As the excitement of Belichick’s arrival has mellowed into the normal offseason routine, the reality of the next year is taking shape.

This program hasn’t won 10 games since 2015, and this doesn’t feel like the year when this changes. An eight-win year, while less exciting and meaningful, feels a lot more likely.

Winning the ACC is not an outcome we can truly take seriously yet—not with so many questions still to be answered. And with that acknowledged, we’re left with a remarkably boring reality.

An eight-win season for the G.O.A.T. seems within reach. This would also likely create momentum in both the portal and recruiting that could foster further roster improvements, much like we’ve seen Deion Sanders do at Colorado.

But Sanders didn’t realize true success until Year 2 in Boulder, and he had two likely top five NFL draft picks playing key positions on his roster.

Belichick doesn’t have this luxury. Nor is he likely worried about Year 2 given the attention his arrival has created. The likely outcome of this year will be far less compelling, although it could still serve as a fine foundation for things to come.