Playing Fact or Fiction with All of MLB's Hottest Week 14 Buzz, Rumors

Baseball's unofficial halfway point of the season—the All-Star Game, which takes place next week in Cincinnati—is nearly upon us.

While the Midsummer Classic will provide a temporary distraction from the endless buzz and speculation that's floating around the rumor mill, it won't stop general managers from feverishly working their phones, trying to get an advantage over their competition as they all pursue the same available players.

It's trade season, and things are about to get very interesting.

Will the winter's biggest spender (and winner) flip the script and start selling off pieces? Is the Evil Empire poised to make its return to prominence? Could an owner's insatiable desire to compete (and win) ultimately do more harm than good to his team's chances of contending?

We'll hit on all of that and more in this week's edition of "Fact or Fiction."

Fact: The Cubs Will Add a Front-Line Starter Before the Trade Deadline

Nam Y. Huh/Associated Press

Jed Hoyer and Theo Epstein won't be limited at the trade deadline.

Ideally, the Chicago Cubs will be able to add an established No. 1 or No. 2 starter that's under team control past 2015 and can be acquired without surrendering any of its best young talent, according to reports from Fox Sports' Jon Paul Morosi and the Chicago Sun-Times' Gordon Wittenmyer.

Now I can't envision a scenario where the Cubs would be able to land a pitcher like Philadelphia's Cole Hamels, who Morosi suggests would be a great fit, without giving up a top prospect like Kyle Schwarber. Yet stranger things have happened.

As for the notion that they couldn't afford to add Hamels' salary, think again.

"There are financial resources if Theo (Epstein) needs money to make a deal," Crane Kenney, the team's president of business operations, told CSN Chicago's David Kaplan. "(There's) no one I trust more to figure out what to do that Theo and Jed (Hoyer)."

But if the cost to obtain Hamels or another controllable arm is prohibitive, we'd be foolish to dismiss the Cubs as legitimate contenders for the services of the two best short-term rentals on the market, Cincinnati's Johnny Cueto and Oakland's Scott Kazmir.

Even if players like Schwarber and Addison Russell are off-limits, the Cubs have a deep enough farm system to facilitate a deal for pretty much any pitcher they set their sights on.

Fiction: The Yankees Are Going to Trade for a No. 1 Starter

Seth Wenig/Associated Press

Hal Steinbrenner overruling Brian Cashman is the only way an ace will find his way to the Bronx.

Even if the New York Yankees didn't need to bolster its starting rotation, chances are that they'd still be linked to pretty much every starting pitcher on the trade market because, well, they're the Yankees. Things are always more interesting when they're involved.

And for the first time in years, the club has the sort of high-upside prospects in the upper levels of its farm system that other teams covet. This would enable them to trade for the likes of Johnny Cueto or Cole Hamels.

But as ESPN New York's Andrew Marchand writes, there's always a but.

"The Yankees are not set up to make a big deal anyway because they want to preserve their top youth and do not want future salary issues to weigh down their long-term planning. Unless prices drop significantly, an ace like Cole Hamels or Johnny Cueto is probably too expensive."

It's hard nearly impossible to envision any scenario in which that would be the case. If anything, prices for both Cueto and Hamels figure to rise as the trade deadline gets closer. It's the law of supply and demand, and with only two aces on the market, the supply is severely limited.

That's not to say that the Yankees aren't going to make a move to bolster the rotation.

But it'll be for a No. 2/No. 3 starter like Jeff Samardzija or Mike Leake, someone that could be acquired for a package built around a prospect like Jake Cave, Eric Jagielo or Bryan Mitchell—not one where they'd have to surrender Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez or Luis Severino.

Fact: San Diego Would Trade Justin Upton

Associated Press

Justin Upton might be too valuable for the Padres to keep.

A few weeks ago, Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal reported that the San Diego Padres were considering all of their options heading into the trade deadline—options that included the team selling off some "big pieces" like Craig Kimbrel, James Shields and Justin Upton.

While things haven't gone as planned for the Padres this year, unloading the likes of Kimbrel and Shields makes little sense, as it would only create more holes for GM A.J. Preller to fill over the winter. But moving Upton would be the sensible thing to do.

Not only would he be the biggest bat available at the trade deadline, he'd arguably be the only impact bat on the market. That makes him an incredibly valuable trade chip to play.

It's not hard to envision teams falling over each other as they try to pry Upton loose, especially American League clubs that would be less concerned with his defensive issues. They can give him some playing time as a designated hitter.

After moving a slew of prospects to build what he hoped would be a contender in 2015, moving Upton would allow Preller to begin restocking the team's farm system. And there's no rule on the books that precludes the Padres from re-signing Upton as a free agent after the season if they so desire.

Preller-mania swept the baseball world last winter—can you imagine what the reaction this coming winter would be if he moves Upton for prospects at the deadline and then brings him back as a free agent? He'd go from "rock star" to "rock god."

He's not going to just give Upton away for nothing. But in the right deal, Preller wouldn't hesitate to ship him out of town.

Fiction: Cincinnati Won't Sell at the Deadline

Associated Press

Bob Castellini won't stand in the way of progress in Cincinnati.

Everything you need to know about the Cincinnati Reds and the trade deadline can be found in these two sentences, penned by MLB.com's Mark Sheldon:

"Last year when the Reds had the chance to be sellers on July 31, the club made no moves. At the time, (general manager Walt) Jocketty cited CEO Bob Castellini's competitiveness saying: 'You know who I work for, right?'"

But that was then. This is now. Through July 8, the Reds have no chance of catching St. Louis in the National League Central (15.5 games back) and are seven games out of a wild card spot, with five teams ahead of them in the race.

Painful as it may be, even Castellini has to acknowledge that the odds of the Reds somehow navigating their way past those obstacles and into a playoff spot sit somewhere between slim and none.

So while his competitiveness won't allow for a complete rebuild—players like Jay Bruce and Todd Frazier aren't going anywhere—the same can't be said about pending free agents Johnny Cueto and Mike Leake, or a veteran like Marlon Byrd who is still under contract. But Byrd could be attractive to a team in need of a bat.

Cueto could bring back a hefty package of young, controllable and inexpensive talent for the Reds to not only fill out their roster with, but help lower payroll. This would afford the team more flexibility when it comes to making future moves.

Ultimately, Castellini will come to grips with the fact that standing pat isn't an option—and Jocketty will be allowed to sell off some pieces with an eye toward making another run at a playoff spot in 2016 and beyond.

Fiction: Toronto Will Avoid Short-Term Rentals

David Manning-USA TODAY Sports

Alex Anthopoulos may have to shop where he'd rather not.

If you've ever gone to your local grocery store to pick up a few things, then chances are you've done what the rest of us have done—push a cart with a busted wheel up and down every aisle, whether it contains something that's on your shopping list or not.

Toronto GM Alex Anthopoulos is shopping for a starting pitcher (or two), and while there's more available stock down the "short-term rental" aisle than anywhere else, he's doing his best to avoid crashing into the bevy of general managers that have already parked their carts there.

"It's the last aisle that I'd want to shop in," he remarked during a recent appearance on Sportsnet 590 The Fan (per Sportsnet's Ben Nicholson-Smith) when asked whether he'd be willing to trade for a short-term fix like Cincinnati's Johnny Cueto.

While he didn't completely dismiss the idea of adding a short-term rental, adding "anybody that's going to be out there in trades we're going to have interest in," it's clear that his preference is to add someone that's signed into 2016 and beyond.

But he can't avoid that aisle for much longer. There simply aren't that many controllable starters available. Philadelphia's Cole Hamels is really the only one of note, and the Blue Jays don't have the available finances to fit his salary into their payroll even if the Phillies picked up a chunk of his contract.

Whether it's a front-line starter like Cueto or Scott Kazmir, or a mid-rotation arm like Jeff Samardzija, Ian Kennedy or Mike Leake, Anthopoulos is ultimately going to have to take a deep breath and force his way down the store's most crowded aisle.

Unless otherwise linked or noted, all statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs and are current through games of July 8. All contract information courtesy of Cot's Contracts.

Hit me up on Twitter to talk all things baseball: @RickWeinerBR.