United States vs. Japan: Latest Odds and Expert Picks for 2015 Women's World Cup

Matt JonesJul 3, 2015

The biggest day in women’s football is edging ever closer, with the United States and Japan set to renew their burgeoning rivalry at BC Place in Vancouver on Sunday. And everyone seems to have an opinion on which way this game is going to go.

Up to this point, the USWNT have been the standout team at the World Cup, showcasing a real defensive solidity on their way to the final. But Japan got the better of Jill Ellis’ side at this stage four years ago, and many think the reigning champions will have a crucial mental edge.

But what do the experts think? Here’s a look at the latest odds and some of the buzz from the brightest minds in the game ahead of the final.

United States a Popular Pick

MONTREAL, QC - JUNE 30: Fans of the United States celebrate after the USA 2-0 victory against Germany in the FIFA Women's World Cup 2015 Semi-Final Match at Olympic Stadium on June 30, 2015 in Montreal, Canada. (Photo by Francois Laplante/FreestylePhoto

Francois Laplante/FreestylePhoto/Getty Images

Although Japan were extremely fortuitous in the manner in which they qualified for the final, very little coverage has been devoted to their performances to get this far. Indeed, although they weren’t at their best against England, aside from the semi-final they’ve been dominant in every game.

Indeed, as we can see here courtesy of OptaJoe, the reigning champions rarely surrender early initiative in matches:

The mental factor shouldn’t be underestimated here either. Japan shocked the USA four years ago to win the trophy, and coming into this final they’re underdogs again. Given a core of this USWNT squad were present for that 2011 final, it’ll be intriguing to see if there are any scars left over.

EDMONTON, AB - JULY 01: Japan celebrate after the FIFA Women's World Cup Semi Final match between Japan and England at the Commonwealth Stadium on July 1, 2015 in Edmonton, Canada. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)

Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

Granted, the United States edged Japan in the final of the Olympics, but Grant Wahl of Sports Illustrated doesn’t think that’ll make much of a difference:

Nonetheless, Ellis’ team is building up a head of steam, and that’s clear by the number of experts backing them for the title.

ESPN.com’s Julie Foudy outlined her thoughts on why the United States can clinch their third World Cup in Canada this weekend:

"
The key for the United States will be pushing the pace, pushing players forward, establishing possession (which gets numbers in the box), and most importantly, finishing the team's chances. The U.S. women still remember the missed early opportunities in the World Cup four years ago and know this time must be different.
The United States will win this game if it doesn't allow Japan to settle in—"make them uncomfortable," we used to say. Four years is a long time to wait to get another opportunity. As a player, you are thankful you get another chance. This one will not slip away.
"

JULIE JACOBSON/Associated Press

While Foudy, a former USWNT star, may be letting some emotional bias creep into her assessment, nine of the 11-strong panel assembled by ESPN for this World Cup have chosen the United States, with just two suggesting Japan will sample glory.

Here's what Bleacher Report's Michael Cummings thinks will happen:

The predictions for this final based on statistical evidence seem to favour the United States as well. As we can see here courtesy of Paul Carr of ESPN, calculations made by the network have the two-time champions as major favourites for this match:

Is there anyone out there openly backing Japan? Not many experts are, but as noted here by Reuters (h/t Yahoo Sports), Olivia, a 10-year-old parrot at Tochigi Prefecture enclosure that has correctly predicted all of Japan’s results so far, opted for the reigning champions to retain their crown, as reported by Kyodo News:

"
On Friday, perched on a tiny stage adorned with artificial grass, she shunned the stars and stripes and swiftly picked up the Japanese flag with her beak and gave it to her keeper to indicate who would win the showdown in Vancouver, Kyodo News reported on Friday. …
Olivia even hinted at the struggles Japan would face in Wednesday' semi-final win over England, gifted to them after a late own goal, by twice picking up the English flag before dropping it and opting for Japan, Kyodo said.
"

Sadly for Olivia, that run of successful picks will come to an end this weekend, as the United States will be too good for Japan.

Against England, the reigning champions looked a little jaded and really struggled with the Three Lionesses' high-intensity brand of football. Expect the United States to adopt a similar blueprint when these teams meet on Sunday, physically dominating their opponents and putting an emphatic stamp on this squad’s quality.

Prediction: United States 2-0 Japan