Predicting 2015 Won-Loss Record for Every New College Football Head Coach
It won’t be long now. As the calendar flips from June to July, we’re officially on the downhill slide to the beginning of the 2015 college football season. Sure, actual games that matter are still two months away, but we aren’t far from college football media days, then preseason practices and, finally, games.
Before long, new coaches will get their first chance to make an extended impression on reporters at media gatherings, creating storylines and forming impressions. That said, the real impressions will be formed when the 2015 season actually commences in September.
The 2014-15 coaching carousel was lighter than usual, with only 15 programs hiring new leaders. The Big Lead's Ty Duffy ranked the major college football hires here. Here’s a look at how we think each coach will fare this fall, with the final predicted records being influenced by returning personnel, the state of the program and the coach’s overall reputation.
Oregon State Coach Gary Andersen
1 of 15
Oregon State was the epicenter of some of the most surprising moves of the coaching carousel. First, veteran OSU coach Mike Riley stunned many when he bolted to Nebraska to replace Bo Pelini. Then, Gary Andersen surprised even more when he left Wisconsin after just two seasons to become the Beavers’ new head coach.
Andersen went 19-7 with a Big Ten West title in Madison and excelled in four seasons at Utah State, but returning to his West Coast roots might lead to some rough moments early. The Beavers finished 5-7 last season, and while they return seven offensive starters, the team must replace prolific quarterback Sean Mannion, and the starter will be one of three freshmen with no game experience.
In addition, a defense that allowed 31.6 points per game returns only two starters in senior defensive end Jaswha James and senior cornerback Larry Scott. In other words, it might get worse before it gets better. A schedule that includes a road trip to Michigan and Pac-12 roadies to Arizona, Utah and Oregon could make a bowl trip a tall order this fall.
Predicted Record: 4-8
Kansas Coach David Beaty
2 of 15
Following an unlikely Orange Bowl appearance under former coach Mark Mangino, Kansas’ football program has inspired just one question recently: When does basketball practice start? The Jayhawks have been truly awful, winning a total of 12 games in the last five seasons. Into the breach steps David Beaty, formerly the wide receivers coach at Texas A&M.
Making matters worse, a raft of junior college players signed by former coach Charlie Weis as a potential quick fix have departed, leaving Kansas with only six returning starters this fall. Ouch.
The only truly winnable game appears to be the opener with FCS foe South Dakota State. That is followed by nonconference games against Memphis and at Rutgers, which are both returning bowl teams, and the brutal Big 12 slate. Baylor, Oklahoma and Kansas State come to Lawrence, but will it matter? Probably not.
Projected Record: 1-11
Colorado State Coach Mike Bobo
3 of 15
Jim McElwain’s quick turnaround at Colorado State had its positives and negatives. The Rams had an amazing 10-3 campaign in 2014, but it attracted the attention of Florida, which poached McElwain as its new head coach. So why not go back to the playbook CSU used three years earlier in hiring an SEC offensive coordinator?
Thus, Mike Bobo ended up in Fort Collins. He spent 21 of the last 22 years as a Georgia player or assistant coach, but he appears ready to take the next step and run a pro-style system for the Rams. Fourteen starters return, but they don’t include star quarterback Garrett Grayson, who graduated, or top rusher Dee Hart.
Fortunately, 1,750-yard receiver Rashard Higgins returns to anchor the offense. If sophomore Nick Stevens can connect with him efficiently, Bobo’s system should run smoothly. The schedule, which features Minnesota and Colorado in September as well as a Utah State-Boise State-Air Force homestand in October, isn’t easy, but the Rams should be Mountain West contenders again.
Projected Record: 8-4
Central Michigan Coach John Bonamego
4 of 15
Dan Enos’ timing was less than ideal. Two weeks before national signing day, he told Central Michigan he was leaving as head coach to take over as Arkansas’ offensive coordinator. He led CMU to the Bahamas Bowl and a 7-6 record in 2014 but finished with a 26-36 overall record in five seasons.
To replace him, CMU tabbed alum and Detroit Lions special teams coach John Bonamego, who hasn’t coached in the collegiate ranks since 1998, when he was an assistant at Army. He inherits 10 starters and a decent core led by junior quarterback Cooper Rush, who threw for an NCAA bowl-record seven touchdowns in the Bahamas Bowl. However, he needs to find a new No. 1 target with star wideout Titus Davis gone.
The Chippewas have a tough non-league schedule with Oklahoma State and trips to Syracuse and Michigan State followed by the MAC opener against perennial power Northern Illinois. However, this could be a bowl team again this fall with the right breaks.
Projected Record: 5-7
Troy Coach Neal Brown
5 of 15
It’s been a long, long time since Troy made a coaching change. When Larry Blakeney announced he was stepping down as head coach at the end of the 2014 regular season, he ended a 25-season run that took the Trojans from Division II to the Sun Belt, making seven Division I-AA playoff appearances and winning at least a share of five Sun Belt titles along the way.
To replace him, Troy went young, hiring Kentucky offensive coordinator Neal Brown, who, at 34, is the second-youngest head coach in the FBS. He excelled as Troy’s offensive coordinator in 2008 and 2009 and will run a high-powered Air Raid attack that will put points on the board.
He takes over a team that went 3-9 a year ago but does return 13 starters, including improving sophomore quarterback Brandon Silvers. The Trojans had one of the nation’s worst defenses a year ago, allowing 36.2 points per game, and return five starters from that unit.
Troy must go to North Carolina State, Wisconsin and Mississippi State within the first five weeks. Ouch. Georgia Southern does come to Troy, but if this is a bowl team, we’d be surprised.
Projected Record: 4-8
Wisconsin Coach Paul Chryst
6 of 15
When Gary Andersen abruptly jumped to Oregon State, speculation quickly centered on Pitt coach Paul Chryst as his successor and for good reason. The Madison native played at Wisconsin and also served as an assistant coach and offensive coordinator before leaving for Pitt.
Was he a slam-dunk hire for athletic director Barry Alvarez?
Well, Chryst was 19-19 in three seasons at Pitt, never winning more than seven or fewer than six games. He inherits the defending Big Ten West champions at Wisconsin, as well as 12 returning starters. Heisman Trophy runner-up Melvin Gordon (who rushed for 2,587 yards and 32 touchdowns a year ago) is gone, and senior quarterback Joel Stave is shaky at best. But tailback Corey Clement is more than ready to step into Gordon’s shoes as a productive backfield force, and the Badgers secondary is strong and experienced.
Wisconsin opens with Alabama in north Texas and must travel to West foes Nebraska and Minnesota, but another division title is well within reach.
Projected Record: 9-3
Michigan Coach Jim Harbaugh
7 of 15
When Michigan fired Brady Hoke following four mediocre seasons, the Wolverines swung for the fences in the ensuing coaching search. They hit a home run with Ann Arbor native and former Michigan quarterback Jim Harbaugh, who wore out his welcome following four successful seasons with the San Francisco 49ers.
He hasn't been afraid to shake up the status quo, irking SEC coaches with his liberal usage of satellite camps away from Michigan's campus. USA Today's George Schroeder says it's a huge positive for Harbaugh.
"In my America, you're allowed to cross the state borders," Harbaugh said to Schroeder. "That's the America I know."
Harbaugh is known for his rebuild skills, and while he took the 49ers to three NFC title games and a Super Bowl in his first three seasons, success was a bit slower at San Diego and Stanford. He was 7-4 in his first season at USD and a combined 9-15 in his first two seasons at Stanford. However, Stanford was one of college football’s most downtrodden programs when he arrived, which made his task tougher.
The cupboard is hardly bare at Michigan, which will return 10 starters from 2014’s 5-7 team. However, there are key holes to fill at wide receiver, quarterback and in the secondary. Harbaugh will need to pick a quarterback between Iowa transfer Jake Rudock, junior Shane Morris and a trio of untested freshmen.
The Wolverines open at Utah and also face Oregon State and BYU in the first month. In Big Ten play, they host Michigan State and Ohio State but must travel to Penn State. Harbaugh will be a winner at Michigan, but it might take a little time.
Predicted Record: 7-5
Houston Coach Tom Herman
8 of 15
Houston was one of the bigger disappointments of the 2014 season. Playing in a brand-new stadium with a favorable schedule, the Cougars fired coach Tony Levine despite a 7-5 regular season. Hiring Ohio State offensive coordinator Tom Herman was considered something of a coup. He led the Buckeyes offense to a national title and will bring a fast-paced style to southeast Texas.
He’ll return 11 starters, although one of the biggest questions will be at quarterback, where returning starter Greg Ward Jr. and senior Adam Schulz will battle in the preseason. The winner will hand off to 1,037-yard, 15-touchdown tailback Kenneth Farrow. The defense returns six starters and was one of the best in the American Athletic Conference a year ago, although there are questions in the linebacker corps.
Houston must travel to Louisville in Week 2 but hosts Vanderbilt, Cincinnati and Memphis while traveling to Central Florida. 2015 shouldn’t be nearly such a disappointment in Houston.
Predicted Record: 9-3
Buffalo Coach Lance Leipold
9 of 15
Lance Leipold was certainly an out-of-the-box idea as Buffalo’s head coach, but there’s no denying his track record. In eight seasons at Division III Wisconsin-Whitewater, he piled up an astounding 109-6 record with six D-III national championships. However, he’s never been an on-field assistant at an FCS program.
One season after a bowl appearance, the Bulls fired coach Jeff Quinn. Leipold will have an FCS learning curve, but he inherits a talented offense that averaged 32.3 points per game a year ago and returns six starters, including senior quarterback Joe Licata.
The Bulls must travel to Penn State and Florida Atlantic in September, but they do get Northern Illinois at home in November. Traveling to Central Michigan and Akron in the MAC schedule won’t be easy, but this has the looks of a bowl team if Leipold can adjust quickly.
Predicted Record: 6-6
Florida Coach Jim McElwain
10 of 15
There’s little question that Florida was one of the most prime destinations in the recent coaching carousel. Despite Will Muschamp’s recent struggles, the Gators have a tradition-rich program located in a recruiting hotbed. While facilities must be upgraded, good things are in motion for new coach Jim McElwain, who capitalized on a 10-3 record at Colorado State.
Just maybe not this season. The Gators return 11 starters but just four on the offensive side of the ball. Florida finished spring with just six healthy scholarship offensive linemen and returns only one starter, senior center Trip Thurman. A pair of immediately eligible transfers and the arrival of freshman offensive tackle Martez Ivey will help, but it isn’t a fix-all for protecting either Will Grier or Treon Harris as the starting quarterback.
Defensively, Florida will be solid again, led by returning All-American Vernon Hargreaves III, one of the nation’s top cornerbacks. But an SEC schedule that includes Ole Miss, a visit to LSU, the annual neutral-site game against Georgia and a visit from Florida State isn’t conducive to huge first-year success.
Projected Record: 7-5
SMU Coach Chad Morris
11 of 15
For the last four years, the question wasn’t if Chad Morris would leave Clemson for a head coaching position—it was just a matter of when. As it turned out, SMU was the perfect fit for the Texas native. The Mustangs’ program had grown stale under June Jones, who resigned early in a 1-11 season. SMU only avoided 0-12 with a season-finale win at UConn.
Are the Mustangs as bad as they looked? Probably not. Morris rejuvenated Clemson’s offense quickly with his hurry-up, no-huddle system and should do so again in Dallas. It’ll take some time to get the exact personnel he needs in place, but despite September games against Baylor and TCU, the schedule is a bit more forgiving than last year's, with the biggest tests being trips to Houston and Memphis. This isn’t a bowl team, but it’ll be better.
Predicted Record: 4-8
Tulsa Coach Philip Montgomery
12 of 15
Tulsa had a recent history as one of the nation’s top mid-major programs, but the Golden Hurricane fell off a cliff following a 2012 Conference USA championship. After a 2-10 record in 2014, Tulsa officials had no choice but to can Bill Blankenship, and they made a solid hire in Baylor offensive coordinator Philip Montgomery, who guided the nation’s top scoring offense a year ago.
Tulsa returns 13 starters, but that may or may not be a good thing. The Hurricane did average 24.7 points per game a year ago and have solid weapons in senior tailback Zack Langer and junior wide receiver Keevan Lucas.
However, Tulsa fans would be wise to be patient with Montgomery, especially early on. This won’t be easy, especially with road trips to Oklahoma and Cincinnati on the schedule, as well as visits from Memphis and Houston.
Projected Record: 2-10
Pitt Coach Pat Narduzzi
13 of 15
Over the last five years, Pitt has been spectacularly mediocre. The Panthers are 33-32, with their high win total eight and their low six. That’s largely because of inconsistency in the head coach’s office. When Pat Narduzzi was hired as the new program leader in December, he was the Panthers’ fifth head coach in the last seven years.
The former Michigan State defensive coordinator walks into a great situation. The Panthers return 15 starters from a year ago, led by ACC Player of the Year James Conner, a bruising tailback who rushed for 1,765 yards and 26 touchdowns in 2014.
Narduzzi’s new defense returns seven starters but lost its top two tacklers from a year ago. Still, while Pitt must travel to Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech, as well as Iowa, it gets Notre Dame, Louisville and Miami at home. The Panthers could easily contend for the ACC Coastal title with a few breaks.
Predicted Record: 8-4
Nebraska Coach Mike Riley
14 of 15
Ever go through a breakup and find that your next partner was the polar opposite of the (not so) dearly departed? That’s what Nebraska found out with Mike Riley. The Cornhuskers canned volatile Bo Pelini following yet another nine-win season that didn’t result in a Big Ten title and replaced him with Riley, who is generally regarded as one of the game’s good guys after a 14-season run at Oregon State.
Riley had eight winning seasons at OSU but finished with a 5-7 mark last year, and he could benefit from a late-career change of scenery. Nebraska is clearly a far superior job with better facilities and tradition, but can Riley make the Huskers better?
The Huskers have won nine games in each of the last seven seasons and return 12 starters. They must replace do-everything tailback Ameer Abdullah and talented defensive end Randy Gregory, but sophomore wide receiver De’Mornay Pierson-El is ready for a breakout season, and junior quarterback Tommy Armstrong Jr. is a solid playmaker.
September features games with BYU and a trip to Miami, but the Big Ten West remains winnable. Nebraska gets Michigan State, Wisconsin and Iowa at home too.
Projected Record: 9-3
UNLV Coach Tony Sanchez
15 of 15
When your program has sunk down far enough, you tend to take chances. That’s what UNLV is doing. The Rebels have lost at least 10 games in six of the last nine seasons, and coach Bobby Hauck stepped down with a 15-49 career record after taking the Rebels to one bowl game and losing at least 10 games in each of his other four seasons.
So why not take a chance on a guy like Tony Sanchez? Across town, he built Bishop Gorman High School into a national power, going 85-5 with six state championships. He gives UNLV local credibility and can kick-start the program despite having never coached in the college ranks.
That said, his debut season won’t be easy. The Rebels return only seven starters (led by returning freshman All-America receiver Devonte Boyd) and boast one of the nation’s worst defenses, which allowed 38.5 points per game a year ago.
Plus, the non-league schedule includes matchups with UCLA, Michigan and Northern Illinois, and the Rebs must face Boise State and Colorado State in league play. Improving on last season’s 2-11 mark would be miraculous. Well, there are only 12 games on the schedule, so...
Projected Record: 2-10
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