Realistic Expectations for Trey Lyles' Rookie Season with Utah Jazz

The Utah Jazz jumped on Kentucky's one-and-done bandwagon, selecting Wildcat freshman forward Trey Lyles with the No. 12 pick in the 2015 NBA draft. 

Lyles enters the NBA after a full season of playing small forward alongside the massive front line of Karl-Anthony Towns and Willie Cauley-Stein. In the NBA, the 6'10" big man will likely spend most of his time as a stretch 4, or as general manager Dennis Lindsey calls it, a mobile 4.

According to KSL Sports, the comparison Lindsey uses is Boris Diaw, saying Lyles' "...ability to drive a gap and dish off and play unselfish basketball was very intriguing to us."

As someone with the ball skills necessary to play the perimeter, Utah's newest big man fits the mold of a new en vogue position in the NBA, described by Grantland's Zach Lowe:

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A few executives have dumped the term “stretch 4” altogether and replaced it with “playmaking 4” — a term I’m officially stealing right now. Shooting is nice, but it’s not enough anymore as defenses get smarter, faster, and more flexible working within the loosened rules. Spot-up guys have to be able to catch the ball, pump-fake a defender rushing out at them, drive into the lane, and make some sort of play. If they can’t manage that, a possession dies with them.

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Playmaking 4, mobile 4, whatever you want to call it. Lyles has shown the potential to be this kind of versatile big. Mike Schmitz of DraftExpress showed Lyles' passing ability in his scouting video, breaking down his ability to pass from the perimeter, out of the post, off of drives and in transition with outlets.

That's a skill that will serve Lyles well on a Jazz team that led the NBA in total passes last season and already has established scorers in Gordon Hayward and Derrick Favors.

He won't always be called on to pass, though. Despite shooting just 4-of-29 from three-point range at Kentucky, Utah wants Lyles to be able to space the floor as a shooter. That's why, as Lindsey says in the interview above, the Jazz had Lyles shoot 40 corner threes in his pre-draft workout with them.

Making 25 in a controlled setting like a workout is certainly a good sign, but it's also nothing like shooting in a game, with an NBA athlete closing out on the release.

Getting Lyles ready for that will partially be up to coach Quin Snyder and his staff. The important thing is, his form looks good, and 4-of-29 could just be a slump in the middle of an 82-game NBA season.

The other part is on Lyles.

Nylon Calculus's Layne Vashro's handy Prospect Comparison Tool lists Earl Clark and Raef LaFrentz as two of the closest statistical comps for Lyles. Clark never quite developed into a stretch big. LaFrentz did. The amount of time Lyles puts in with the coaching staff and by himself, getting up shots in the gym, will ultimately determine what kind of shooter he is.

Another comp for Lyles comes from Bleacher Report's own Jonathan Wasserman, who sees his pick-and-pop potential as reminiscent of Chicago's Taj Gibson.

The difference there is that Lyles doesn't figure to translate into the same type of defensive weapon that Gibson is, at least not right away. For that reason, expect to see most of Lyles' minutes played alongside one of Utah's defensive juggernauts: Favors or Rudy Gobert.

Both have the ability to cover for a multitude of mistakes on defense, but need spacing around them on the other end of the floor. That would seem to make Lyles the perfect complementary third big if he hits his ceiling.

What may prevent him from reaching that is a lack of top-flight athleticism. As Wasserman says, Lyles has great size, but he still struggled to finish around the rim against NCAA competition at times.

In an excellent breakdown of his lone season at Kentucky, Salt City Hoops' Ben Dowsett praised Lyles' speed and footwork in the post, but also warned of his shortcomings around the rim:

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Both in the post and elsewhere, Lyles needs some work with his touch around the basket. This is one area where a small sample combined with the less sustainable elements of the college game confused scouting services pre-draft — his 59.5 percent figure inside the paint, per Synergy Sports, was often cited as a positive.

But actually watch all these attempts (I did), and you quickly realize a high percentage of his makes were easy dunks and putback attempts over helpless 6’5 wings. He won’t get those so easily at the next level, and when he tried to finish on the move or with any sort of traffic around, he often looked rushed and a little silly...

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As Dowsett mentioned, easy looks at the rim will be harder to come by in the NBA. All the more reason to work tirelessly on the jump shot.

That's something Lyles figures to have a chance to do both on his own time and during real games. Utah's coaching staff and front office have been committed to in-game development over the last two seasons, and a quiet free-agency period suggests 2015-16 should follow suit.

That doesn't mean Lyles will come in and average 30 minutes right away. There are only 96 to be had between the two big positions, and Utah already has top-notch talent starting in Gobert and Favors. Those two figure to combine for well over 60 minutes per game. Trevor Booker, last season's third big following the Enes Kanter trade, averaged nearly 20 minutes during 2014-15. Plus, Tibor Pleiss, a 7'2" center playing in Spain's Liga ACB, could join the team as well.

All of this means Lyles isn't likely to play more than 10-15 minutes per game as a rookie. As such, Jazz fans would be wise to enter the season with tempered expectations for the No. 12 pick.

Somewhere around five points, three rebounds and an assist per game would be a relatively successful first campaign for Lyles, given the circumstance.

The thing to really look for is how efficiently he spreads the floor and creates for others in his limited minutes as Lindsey's "mobile 4."

Unless otherwise noted, all stats and salary figures are courtesy of NBA.com and Basketball-Reference.com and are current as of July 2, 2015.   

Andy Bailey covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him @AndrewDBailey.