Predicting the Best Bargains of the 2015 NBA Free-Agent Class
"Bargain" won't be a term thrown around often when discussing NBA free agents in the near future. With the salary cap set to jump by upward of $40 million within the next two years, per ESPN.com's Marc Stein, teams are splurging before the massive spikes begin.
Next season, "25 or so teams could have enough room for at least one max-level contract," according to Grantland's Zach Lowe, which will send salaries for free agents of all types soaring. The franchises that miss out on a true max-caliber player will feel pressure to overpay lower-tier free agents, so superstars aren't the only ones set to benefit from the financial windfall.
We've already begun to see the effects of this rapidly changing fiscal climate—see: Al-Farouq Aminu agreeing to a four-year, $30 million deal from the Portland Trail Blazers or DeMarre Carroll agreeing to a four-year, $60 million contract with the Toronto Raptors, per Yahoo Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski. As Seth Partnow noted at BBallBreakdown.com, "this is uncharted territory for everyone involved."
In this environment, signing a quality rotation player for anything under the mid-level exception—valued this season at roughly $5.5 million—is a major bargain. The same goes for any team that can ink a starting-caliber player at $8 million or lower.
With those parameters in mind, eight free agents in particular could wind up being massive steals for the franchises that sign them, based on reports and informed speculation about how much they may command on the open market.
Already Signed Bargains
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More than 20 players came off the board during the first day of free agency alone. The shocking flood of signings included a number of eyebrow-raising deals—not just limited to the big-name tickets—but a few bargain contracts emerged too.
These five, in particular, stand out as steals for their respective teams based on the value each player is likely to provide, along with how much comparable players are going for on the open market.
Mike Dunleavy, SF, Chicago Bulls
Agreed to a three-year, $14.4 million deal with the Chicago Bulls, per Yahoo Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski.
Dunleavy is the least heralded member of Chicago's starting rotation, but there's no underselling the value he provides. The Bulls went 41-22 with him in the lineup and just 9-10 without him this past season, as he was easily the team's most reliable floor-spacer.
Hardwood Paroxysm's Brian Schroeder put Dunleavy's deal into perspective by writing, "Dunleavy might suddenly be awful, but they paid almost nothing for him. Less per year than Kyle Singler got. Kyle Singler." There's no arguing with that.
Danny Green, SG, San Antonio Spurs
Agreed to a four-year, $45 million deal with the San Antonio Spurs, per ESPN's Chris Broussard.
In true Spurs tradition, they somehow convinced a key contributor to eschew pursuing significantly higher deals elsewhere to re-sign in San Antonio at a discount. On a day in which Iman Shumpert agreed to a four-year, $40 million deal with the Cleveland Cavaliers, per Basketball Insiders' Alex Kennedy, the Spurs inked Green to a deal worth just $5 million more over that same four-year span.
ESPN.com's Tom Haberstroh dubbed Green's contract "a highway robbery in this market," while Grantland's Zach Lowe called him "a bargain at this price—especially considering what [Khris] Middleton, [DeMarre] Carroll and others got." Given the premium being placed on three-and-D wings thus far, Green figures to go down as one of the biggest bargains throughout this free-agency period.
Khris Middleton, SF, Milwaukee Bucks
Agreed to a five-year, $70 million deal with the Milwaukee Bucks, per CBSSports.com's Ken Berger.
Two years ago, Middleton was little more than an unheralded second-round pick thrown into the Brandon Jennings-Brandon Knight swap between the Milwaukee Bucks and Detroit Pistons. As such, there may be some initial sticker shock at the thought of his receiving a five-year, $70 million contract.
Then again, Middleton finished with the league's eighth-best defensive real plus-minus and ninth-most wins above replacement last season, per ESPN.com, making the investment far more understandable. Since a desperate team that struck out on its top targets could have thrown a four-year max deal his way—here's looking at you, Los Angeles Lakers—getting him for $20 million less than the max is a heist.
Paul Pierce, SF/PF
Agreed to a three-year, $10.5 million deal with the Los Angeles Clippers, per Wojnarowski.
Anyone questioning whether Pierce remains an impact player heading into his age-38 season need only think back to the 2015 playoffs. He came through time and again with clutch shots, falling just shy of helping the Washington Wizards earn their first Eastern Conference Finals appearance in nearly four decades.
Considering Al-Farouq Aminu just received a four-year, $30 million contract from the Portland Trail Blazers, the Truth's decision to sign a deal worth roughly one-third of that is unfathomable. The cap-strapped Clippers couldn't have dreamed of a better use of their taxpayer mid-level exception.
Brandan Wright, PF/C
Agreed to a three-year, nearly $18 million deal with the Memphis Grizzlies, per Wojnarowski.
Wright has long been a darling of the per-minute community, as he's consistently proved capable of making a significant impact in limited playing time. With his career per-36-minute averages of 15.6 points, 8.2 rebounds and 2.2 blocks, the Grizzlies just stumbled into a high-quality, versatile backup big man for the non-taxpayer mid-level exception.
SB Nation's Tom Ziller dubbed him "the best bargain of Day 1" (edging Green's deal with San Antonio), while Lowe called it "fantastic value for Wright." Considering some of the comparable deals other big men received—the New Orleans Pelicans and Alexis Ajinca agreed to a four-year, $20.2 million deal, per Stein—Memphis should be thrilled to snag Wright at such a price.
Bismack Biyombo, C
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After loading up on big men via trades and the draft, the Charlotte Hornets decided not to extend a qualifying offer to center Bismack Biyombo, allowing him to become an unrestricted free agent. While the former No. 7 overall pick remains offensively limited (to put it kindly), any team in need of a rim protector would be wise to inquire about his asking price.
Over Biyombo's four-year NBA career, he's averaged 2.7 blocks per 36 minutes and has yet to post a block percentage below 5.3. According to the Washington Post's Neil Greenberg, his 6.3 block percentage from this past season "was the third highest among players who appeared in at least 70 games or had at least 100 blocks."
Additionally, Biyombo was the league's most stifling rim protector in 2013-14, allowing opponents to shoot just 39.1 percent around the basket. As Grantland's Zach Lowe wrote in April, a bit of offensive development could make him one of the market's biggest value signings:
"Biyombo is a force at the basket, and he could develop into a threatening pick-and-roll dunk machine. Nabbing Biyombo at $3 million or $4 million per season might turn into a bargain, especially after the cap leaps in 2016-17. That kind of salary is already a team-friendly price for a backup big who can start in a pinch, provided the right kind of personnel is around him.
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Not every squad desperate for rim protection will be lucky enough to land a DeAndre Jordan or a Marc Gasol this summer. For those big men-needy teams who strike out on the top-tier options, signing Biyombo at a discount could wind up turning into a blessing in disguise.
Tim Duncan, PF/C
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On Thursday, Tim Duncan confirmed he will be back with the Spurs for the 2015-16 season, per Mike Monroe of the San Antonio Express-News. Now, the question is how much he will be making.
If Duncan truly wanted one final massive payday, he could ink a deal with a starting salary just under $22 million, based on the NBA's projected 2015-16 salary cap of $67.1 million. According to Monroe, the Spurs may get him for a third—or even less—of that:
"There are several NBA player personnel executives who believe the Spurs will offer Duncan a two-year contract that begins between $6 million and $7 million, with a partial guarantee and a player option in the second season.
If Duncan doesn’t exercise the option, he gets, say, 50 percent of that season’s salary. In effect, his salary for next season would remain over $10 million, the partially guaranteed portion of the second season’s salary remaining on the Spurs team salary after the cap explodes with the NBA’s new TV money kicking in for 2016-17.
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Given the NBA's fiscal climate—one in which the New Orleans Pelicans just handed Omer Asik a five-year, $60 million deal, per Yahoo Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski—signing Duncan for anything less than the max is a heist. Seeing as the big man signed a three-year deal worth $30 million in 2012, he's a near-lock to once again agree to a deeply discounted contract.
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Cory Joseph, PG
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If the San Antonio Spurs' dogged pursuit of LaMarcus Aldridge succeeds, they'll need to work their books to create the requisite cap space. In all likelihood, that would involve renouncing their rights to a number of their own players, including restricted free agent Cory Joseph.
Any team intending to sign Joseph will have to take a massive leap of faith, as he's started just 43 games over his four-year career. During his 14 starts this past season, however, the former Texas Longhorn averaged 13.2 points on 56.2 percent shooting, 4.5 rebounds, 3.6 assists and 0.6 steals in 34.6 minutes per game.
His career per-game averages of 5.2 points, 1.8 rebounds and 1.9 assists don't exactly scream "future superstar," but limited playing time is largely to blame for that. As Bleacher Report's Dan Favale noted, his recent per-minute production puts him in relatively rare company:
"Although he has never averaged even 20 minutes per game, Joseph has starter potential and proved as much over the last two seasons. Since 2013-14, he is one of just 18 players to maintain per-36-minute averages of at least 13 points, 4.5 rebounds, 4.5 assists and one steal while seeing 2,000 minutes of total action.
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Though Joseph isn't much of a three-point threat—he's gone just 37-of-118 from deep over his four-year career—he has steadily improved in that regard, knocking down a career-high 36.4 percent of his looks from deep this past season. Teams looking for a young, defensively sound floor general—the Philadelphia 76ers come to mind—would be wise to throw a $3-4 million annual salary his way.
Kosta Koufos, C
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Kosta Koufos largely flew under the radar during his past two seasons of backing up Marc Gasol with the Memphis Grizzlies, which could deflate his demand in free agency. Any team savvy enough to target him early in the process, however, could be acquiring a difference-maker at half the price of a top-tier option.
Two years ago, Koufos started all but one game for a 57-win Denver Nuggets team, averaging 8.0 points, 6.9 rebounds and 1.3 blocks in just 22.4 minutes per game. This past season, his per-minute production wasn't far off from what he averaged during 2012-13, suggesting he's a nightly double-double threat if he receives regular starter's minutes.
Even in a limited role, he held opponents to 2.5 percentage points below their shooting average, and the Grizzlies were 1.8 points per 100 possessions better with him on the court. ESPN Insider Amin Elhassan, who suggested the 7-footer would be worth a three-year, $31.5 million deal, followed up by writing:
"I anticipate someone will pay less than this mark to sign Koufos, and they'll be getting an absolute steal. He's a starting caliber center who has been stuck playing behind one of the best frontlines in the entire league, and will likely blossom on his own team. He's a high-level defensive center, an excellent rebounder, and a decent pick-and-roll player.
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Back in January, Koufos told Basketball Insiders' Lang Greene that he wanted "to play a lot more" at his next landing spot, suggesting his future in Memphis appears limited. If any big man-needy team can snag him at $8 million per year or less—the non-taxpayer mid-level exception figures to be his floor—it will be getting a starting-caliber big at nearly half the price of what Omer Asik received from the New Orleans Pelicans, per Yahoo Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski.
Kyle O'Quinn, PF/C
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Kyle O'Quinn admittedly isn't the type of splashy free agent who generates excitement among casual fans. While he might not move the needle in terms of ticket sales, his two-way potential could make him one of the summer's best bargains, assuming a team can obtain him cheaply.
O'Quinn fell out of the Orlando Magic's rotation following the All-Star break, racking up just 11 appearances in the team's final 26 games while averaging only 3.5 points and 2.8 rebounds in limited minutes. In a conversation with Fox Sports Florida's Ken Hornack, the 6'10" Norfolk State product conceded, "I don't think I played the way I should have. It was too up-and-down for me."
His per-minute production, however, remains intriguing, as the big man has averaged 13.0 points and 10.5 boards per 36 minutes over his three-year career. As Grantland's Zach Lowe noted, that impressive output could entice free-agent suitors to hope he develops into a more well-rounded player as he reaches his prime:
"O’Quinn doesn’t play much, but his per-minute numbers have always been good, and there is still hope that he can develop one of the two bedrock skills every team wants now in a big man: 3-point shooting and rim protection. … It’s easy to focus on what O’Quinn can’t do. But there’s an intriguing player in here, and some team should pay a bit above market to see if it can coax that player out — and persuade Orlando to not exercise its matching rights.
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O'Quinn doesn't appear to have attracted much interest on the free-agent market yet, but as teams grow more desperate to land impact players, that figures to change. A savvy franchise could approach him with a short-term, "prove-it" deal between the taxpayer mid-level exception and the non-taxpayer mid-level exception before the feeding frenzy for him truly commences.
Thomas Robinson, PF
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As Grantland's Jonathan Abrams documented Wednesday, Thomas Robinson has already experienced a long and winding NBA road since being drafted fifth overall in 2012. He's been traded three times and waived once during his three-year career and hasn't cracked the 20-minute-per-game threshold at any of his landing spots.
T-Rob showed some legitimate promise upon joining the Philadelphia 76ers in February, though. During his 22-game stint with the team, the Kansas product averaged 8.8 points and 7.7 rebounds in just 18.5 minutes per game, infusing the team with manic, unquenchable energy whenever he took the floor.
Robinson still hasn't quite figured out how to play within the limits of his game, often overextending himself with negative consequences. Last October, Grantland's Zach Lowe highlighted one aspect of the forward's skill set that should pique the interest of free-agent suitors, though:
"Robinson has at least one plus NBA skill: He might be the fastest power forward in the league, excluding small-ball combo forwards like LeBron James and Kevin Durant. Dude is a lightning bolt running the floor, crashing the offensive glass, and bull-rushing his way to the rim on the pick-and-roll.
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The Brooklyn Nets, who planned on signing Robinson back in February after the Denver Nuggets waived him, per ESPN.com's Mike Mazzeo, "were the first team to contact" him once free agency began, according to Basketball Insiders' Alex Kennedy. If Brooklyn can sign him for the taxpayer mid-level extension, it's the type of low-risk, high-reward move that could look retroactively brilliant in a few years.
Update (July 2, 6 p.m. ET): Robinson has agreed to join the Nets on a two-year deal with a second-year player option, per Kennedy. NBA.com's David Aldridge reports the deal is for about $2.2 million.
David West, PF
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Initially, it appeared obvious why David West decided to decline his $12.6 million player option: He wanted a long-term deal with a lower salary, ultimately guaranteeing himself more financial security. As it turns out, however, he may instead be in pursuit of an elusive ring, money be damned.
"At this point in my career, it's all about winning," West told WTHR's Bob Kravitz on Wednesday. "I don't want to be in a position where we're just fighting to make the playoffs, I want to be in a spot where we can legitimately taste the Finals."
He went on to describe his opt-out to Kravitz as "not a financial decision, and that's what's so perplexing to people." According to USA Today's Sam Amick, who cited a "person with knowledge of his situation," West appears ready to put his money where his mouth is, as he "has serious interest in playing for the San Antonio Spurs or the Golden State Warriors" this coming season.
If the soon-to-be 35-year-old does sign with either team, he'll be in line for a massive pay cut. According to Amick, West would make $3.3 million at most with the Warriors and would likely take a significant pay cut to play for the Spurs, especially if their pursuit of LaMarcus Aldridge winds up successful.
Getting a player who averaged 11.7 points, 6.8 rebounds and 3.4 assists in just 28.7 minutes per game last season on a deal worth no more than the taxpayer mid-level exception would be patently unfair. The rich would only be getting significantly richer if West does go to San Antonio or Golden State, much to the chagrin of any other team that is hoping to compete for a title next season.
Mo Williams, PG
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Teams in need of a cheap, microwave bench scorer couldn't ask for much more than Mo Williams. During his age-32 season, the Mississippi native churned out 20 or more points on 18 separate occasions, including a career-high 52-point night against the Indiana Pacers back on Jan. 13.
Williams also proved capable as a spot starter this past season, averaging 17.8 points and 7.6 assists in 33.9 minutes per game during his 33 starts. His shooting efficiency, however, leaves much to be desired, as he knocked down just 39.7 percent of his looks with the Minnesota Timberwolves and Charlotte Hornets.
Though the 32-year-old isn't necessarily a full-time starter at this point in his career, his ability to heat up on a moment's notice makes him valuable nevertheless, as Bleacher Report's Adam Fromal wrote:
"Obviously, it's unrealistic to hope for another mind-numbing showing like [the 52-point night]. But teams can still count on Williams for consistent offensive production; he's capable of creating his own looks and setting up his teammates whenever the opportunity arises. The 32-year-old point guard might not be a glamorous option any longer, but he's still capable of bolstering a backcourt.
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According to B/R's Jared Zwerling, Williams is "closing in" on a three- or four-year deal with the Memphis Grizzlies, although nothing is final just yet. Given Memphis' need for more players capable of reliably creating their own shot, signing him to anything below the full non-taxpayer mid-level exception would be a huge bargain.
All statistics are via NBA.com or Basketball-Reference.com, unless otherwise noted. All information about salary-cap exceptions is via Larry Coon's CBA FAQ.
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