NFL: Betting on the Green Bay Packers

I should preface this article by saying I do not advocate gambling.

However, I am frequently caught wanting to show my confidence by offering to wager on my views. Thus, I will offer odds on the odds for certain Packers' achievements, as listed according to www.Bodog.com.

Regular Season Win Total, Over/Under

Over   8.5                       -200

Under 8.5                      +160

Take the over here. The only way the Packers do not win nine games is if they have major injuries like 2008 or have an injury to Aaron Rodgers. Chances that the over is the right bet: 60 percent.

Odds to win the NFC North Division: 2:1     

Bet on the Packers. I calculate the Packers as the division's best team—the best quarterback, the best receiving corps, the best defensive backfield, and no units that are not competitive with the Bears or Vikings.

I believe the Vikings chance is about 35 percent and the Bears is about 25 percent. This means the chances the Packers win this bet is about 40 percent, making the average pay-off 4:3.

Odds to win the 2009 NFC Championship: 9:1

These odds are close to accurate. Because the NFC is tight, the Packers could well get homefield advantage, either all the way or at least until the NFC championship. With that advantage, they are a clear favorite.

However, there are better teams in the NFC that could beat the Packers at Lambeau Field. It is also probable the Packers will not obtain homefield advantage for every game.

Thus, I believe to pull this off will require at least one upset. I put the odds of even getting to the game at only about one in three and winning it drops them to about one in eight. That makes this marginally a good bet with a 9:8 payoff.

Odds to win Super Bowl XLIV: 20:1

This is about right. The Packers may be able to win the NFC, but the three best teams in the AFC are all clearly better and would all handle the media attention for the two weeks leading up to the Super Bowl better than the league's youngest team. I consider this even, but if you had to bet on it, I would say bet against the Packers.

Player Performance Odds

Total Passing Yards—Aaron Rodgers

Over/Under                    3900

Considering Rodgers already passed for over 4000 yards in 2008 and will not be facing comparisons to a Hall of Fame quarterback in his first year starting, the over seems like a no-brainer.

However, the reality is the defense will play a lot better and so will the running game—both were hampered by injuries last year, and the defense severely so. Thus, there will be less need to pass, and that makes this an accurate number for over/under. In a pinch, I would say take the under; while most of his weapons are improving, the chance of injury (he missed less than a half game last season) makes the over a lower than even bet.

Total TD Passes—Aaron Rodgers

Over/Under                    27.5

Again, Rodgers did better than this last year (28), but the same reasons he may throw for fewer yards may have him throwing fewer touchdowns. That being said, having a better running game may open up more chances for play-action and passing lanes in the red zone. Just like for yards, I will factor in the chance of injury to say break the tie in favor of the under.

Total INT—Aaron Rodgers

Over/Under                    13.5

Rodgers had only 13 picks last year, and if anything, needing to throw less should produce fewer, not only because of the percentage but because there will be less need to force things. Add to that the chance of him getting hurt and not playing a full season and this is an easy call: I rank the chance of the under being the result at about two in three.

Total Rushing Yards—Ryan Grant

Over/Under                    1100

Grant had 1200 yards last year while playing through a hamstring problem, so getting 100 fewer when he starts the season healthy seems an easy task. However, not only is it common to have running backs miss games entirely from injury, but I do think Brandon Jackson is going to take some carries from him. I place the odds of the under coming true at about five in nine.

Total TDs—Ryan Grant

Over/Under                    6.5

Last season, Grant finished with only four touchdowns because he could not rip off the big carries—just six of 20-plus and one of 40-plus. He had eight the season before, when he had 11 and two, respectively. This ability will jump because of his health more than it will be hurt by his splitting carries with Jackson.

However, because a running back does often miss games from injury and he could be unseated as the starter by a solid backup, I think the under has about a 60 percent chance of coming true.

Total Receiving Yards—Greg Jennings

Over/Under                    1100

Jennings finished 2008 sixth in receiving yards with 1292, and he (as well as his chemistry with Rodgers) is only getting better. While injuries happen to wide receivers, they are far less common than with tailbacks and quarterbacks, I give the odds of the over coming true at two in three.

Total TDs—Greg Jennings

Over/Under                    9.5

Jennings scored nine touchdowns in 2008, and on top of the factors listed above that indicate 2009 should be better, Donald Driver's aging is more significant than the growth of James Jones and Jordy Nelson in comparison to Jennings's growth. Then again, the need to pass less often may counter this, and that makes this a good over/under mark. In a pinch, I would say go with the under because if Rodgers gets hurt, so do Jennings' numbers.

Total Receiving Yards—Donald Driver

Over/Under                    900

Driver made it to 1000 yards for the fifth time in six seasons last season, but barely. He is getting older and the talent around him is getting better. Couple that with the potential of a significant injury to Rodgers, killing the Packers' passing attack, and the safe bet (about two in three) is to take the under on Driver.

Total TDs—Donald Driver

Over/Under                    5

Driver had five touchdowns in 2008, but for the reasons listed above plus the Packers likely passing less often, the safe bet (maybe three in four) is the under here, too—in fact, a push might be a better bet than the over.

Total Sacks – Aaron Kampman

Over/Under                    10        

Kampman had 9.5 sacks in 2008 and is third in the league in the last four seasons with 37. He is coming to his peak at 29 years old, and is now in a position more prone to sacks. His pass rush can come from different angles, and he will not always be double- and triple-teamed this year.

Do not be sucked in by the idea that the transition will be difficult for him: Kampman played linebacker in college and has handled the transition well thus far. Moreover, the problem is much more likely to impact his pass coverage than his sack totals. This is an easy call: the chance of him exceeding 10 sacks is about three in four.

Who will have more Interceptions?

Charles Woodson          2/3

Nick Collins                   3/2

Tramon Williams            5/2

Charles Woodson is the best cover corner in the division and one of the three best in the league. People have to throw his way because the rest of the secondary is so good.

And don't believe the "he's getting old" talk. That is wishful thinking by rival fans—he is only 32, and there is no way the extra year counters the fact that he will not be playing with a broken toe this year.

Meanwhile, Nick Collins takes some chances back there and also will be in position to pick off passes to the tight end. Collins has almost as much a nose for the big plays as Woodson, and played through a bad back last year that laid him up between games.

Finally, Tramon Williams is the guy most picked on because he's newest. However, I think teams will see that the risk-taking Al Harris may be better to go after as Williams develops into a better overall cover-corner.

Between Collins and Woodson, Woodson will get more picks. However, the payoff is higher on Collins, so I make him the better bet because he only needs to have two-thirds the chance that Woodson does of leading the team.

In summary, I have betting on the Packers team or players (either to achieve something or hit the over number) five times and the under nine (three of which are really too close to call). I must say, I am surprised, considering my high hopes for the season.