US Open Picks 2015: Predictions for Rory McIlroy and PGA Favorites on Thursday
The opening round of the 2015 U.S. Open from Chambers Bay Golf Course in University Place, Washington, is upon us. Per Odds Shark, world No. 1 Rory McIlroy is the favorite to win the fifth major tournament of his career and third in the last four opportunities.
McIlroy took the Open Championship and the PGA Championship to close out a stellar 2014. He finished fourth at the Masters in April and is looking to grab another major for his collection.
Play on Thursday might be a bit erratic for McIlroy and the field.
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For starters, the players won't know if the first and 18th hole will play as a par four or par five. Per Bob Harig of ESPN.com, by design, executive director of the United States Golf Association Mike Davis has instituted this twist on the tournament.
Per Harig, Davis said:
"I know that there's probably some saying, 'Why did you change up the par at 1 and 18 -- what gives? The way the architects designed the holes, truly they did it with flexibility in mind. And we looked at it and say these holes are great played as both a 4 and a 5. They're two completely different drive zones if both holes played 4 and 5. The greens can be very severe and almost add the element of risk and reward with hole locations. The bunkering is different. We went into it thinking this is going to be the right thing to do. There's going to be a 100-yard difference playing between a 5 and 4 on those holes.
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If the course begins as a par five, McIlroy and some of the other longer hitters may have an advantage. Getting off to a strong start could provide McIlroy with a rhythm early and that could spell danger for the rest of the field. Gone are the days when you could wait for him to implode and let the field back into the tournament.
If McIlroy gets cooking early, he's going to be tough to beat. Whether the opening hole is a par four or five, it's still a longer hole. The shortest distance it could be is 496 yards. I see McIlroy setting the tone for a strong day with a good start on the first hole. He's eager to prove that new rival Jordan Spieth isn't quite ready to challenge him as the best player in the world.
McIlroy's focus will be tight, and his game will follow suit. My opening-round prediction for him is a minus-three.
Jordan Spieth
The 2015 Masters champion has been consistently rising through the ranks, and he's now ranked second in the world. That would explain why he's just behind McIlroy in the odds.
The 21-year-old's poise is the most impressive part of his game. He was always highly touted, but his win at Augusta has raised the bar for him. Without question, Spieth can handle the pressure. With a chance to validate his performance at the Masters, Spieth will come out strong on Thursday.
Spieth did miss the cut at The Players Championship, but he bounced back with a top-three finish at two of his next three events. He'll be a part of a stellar group to begin the tournament and that should help to drive the competitive Texan.
Jason Day and Justin Rose will round out Spieth's threesome. Per Steve DiMeglio of USA Today, Spieth is confident in the way he's been playing lately. Spieth said:
"I'm pleased with the way my ball-striking has come on in the last month. I've been working really hard on it. We've done a great job. I wish the tournament started two days ago, I'm striking the ball really well."
Based on that assessment and his recent performances, I like Spieth to take an early lead with a minus-three on the day.
While Phil Mickelson has never won a U.S. Open, he always seems to be in contention. He's finished second six times in his stellar career. Lefty will be hoping the 2015 tournament is the place where he'll finally complete his career Grand Slam.
Mickelson missed the cut at The Players Championship and finished 65th at the Memorial. However, he did finish third in his last tournament at the FedEx St. Jude Classic. His final-round 65 was especially impressive.
There's no doubt he's playing well, but his risky style seems to make him a boom-or-bust player at Chambers Bay. I'm thinking it'll be more of the latter on Thursday. A plus-three performance will force him to play lights out on Friday to make the cut.
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