Predicting the Best Scorers at Each Position for the 2015-16 CBB Season
This past week's NBA draft raided college basketball for many of its best players from the 2014-15 season, including several of the most notable scorers in the game. Seven players who ranked in the top 25 in Division I in points per game were taken in Thursday's draft, and all told 20 of the highest-scoring players from last season will not be back for 2015-16.
But fear not, college fans—the points will be there. And not just because of the recent rule change that decreased the shot clock to 30 seconds. Scorers emerge each and every season, and this one won't be any different.
Based on their performance from last year and their teams' projected lineups and offensive schemes, we've predicted the four best scorers from all five positions for 2015-16. This isn't necessarily going to be the highest-scoring players at each spot on the court but rather the ones who are most effective (and likely will be the go-to player on offense for their respective teams).
No. 4 Point Guard: Jalan West, Northwestern State
1 of 20
Year: Senior
Height, weight: 5'10", 175 lbs
As the engine that runs the nation's top-scoring offense, Jalan West is both the facilitator and the creator for himself and others. In 2014-15 he averaged 20 points per game while leading Division I in assists at 7.7 per game. His distribution is a reason that teammate Zeek Woodley also poured in more than 20 points per game and why the Demons averaged more than 84 per contest.
West wasn't an either/or guy when it came to scoring or facilitating—he regularly did both in the same game. He had seven double-doubles, with six of those involving assists, and in those six games he averaged 15.7 points per game.
When he wanted to get his points, though, he could score in bunches. West had 13 games with at least 25 points, with five of those topping 30.
No. 3 Point Guard: Marcus Paige, North Carolina
2 of 20
Year: Senior
Height, weight: 6'1", 175 lbs
Marcus Paige is coming off what for many players would have been a decent junior year, but it was a disaster for him after his breakout in 2013. Despite having a far more talented supporting cast around him, Paige struggled with his shot while also battling a foot injury. The result was a subpar statistical performance in 2014-15.
But given "one more chance," as he referred to his senior year to Andrew Carter of the Raleigh News & Observer, Paige should be poised not just to have a bounce-back campaign but one that could be among the most prolific in North Carolina history.
"I'm going to give everything I have, every single day this offseason to be the best player I can be to help my team," Paige said.
He averaged 14.1 points per game on 41.3 percent shooting last season, down from 17.5 on 44 percent shooting as a sophomore in 2013-14.
No. 2 Point Guard: Kris Dunn, Providence
3 of 20
Year: Junior
Height, weight: 6'3", 205 lbs
Projected as a potential lottery pick in 2015-16, per DraftExpress.com, Kris Dunn could have gone nearly as high had he come out after his sophomore season. But when he made the somewhat surprising choice to come back for another year, he put himself in position to show off even more of the scoring ability that emerged last winter.
"Several NBA executives told ESPN that they thought Dunn could have moved up into the lottery with strong workouts due to his length, athleticism and ability to defend," ESPN Insider Jeff Goodman wrote.
Dunn averaged 15.6 points per game in 2014-15, nearly triple what he put forth during his last full season in 2012-13. He only played four games before needing season-ending shoulder surgery, but as the successor to prolific scorer Bryce Cotton, he erupted with an aggressive approach that also enabled him to draw defenders and dish it out to teammates at a clip of 7.5 assists per game.
Look for Dunn to work on his outside shot as a senior, which could increase his scoring even more. He made 35 percent of his three-point attempts last year but only made 27 for the season.
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No. 1 Point Guard: Malik Newman, Mississippi State
4 of 20
Year: Freshman
Height, weight: 6'4", 185 lbs
While he's listed as a combo guard and was rated by 247Sports as the No. 1 point guard in the 2015 recruiting class, there's no debate over what Malik Newman will be asked to do as the biggest piece of Ben Howland's first team at Mississippi State. He's there to score and do it as much as possible.
Newman is likely to lead the Bulldogs in both scoring and assists, but his ability to create offense will have the greatest impact. As a senior at Callaway High School in Jackson, Mississippi, he averaged 29.7 points per game, according to MaxPreps.
Mississippi State went 13-19 last season, with only two players averaging double figures and a team shooting percentage of 43 percent.
No. 4 Shooting Guard: Zeek Woodley, Northwestern State
5 of 20
Year: Junior
Height, weight: 6'2", 200 lbs
The other half of Northwestern State's potent duo (along with point guard Jalan West) is Zeek Woodley, who last year was second nationally in scoring at 22.2 points per game. And while he put up his fair share of jump shots, Woodley was as much an at-the-rim scorer as anything else in making 56 percent of his shots including 60.3 percent of two-pointers.
He used that aggressiveness to turn in solid rebounding numbers as well, with 6.3 per game and nearly two offensive boards per contest. He also managed to get to the line at a fair clip, and that paid off with 81.3 percent shooting.
There's nothing to suggest the Demons won't again be one of the most high-scoring teams in the country in 2015-16, and with Woodley just getting started, he'll continue to get his points as often as possible.
No. 3 Shooting Guard: Caris LeVert, Michigan
6 of 20
Year: Senior
Height, weight: 6'7", 210 lbs
The 2014-15 season was an abject disaster for Michigan in so many ways, with injuries ravaging an already inexperienced roster and causing the Wolverines to miss the NCAA tournament and finish with their worst record (16-16) since 2009-10. Caris LeVert was a part of the injury problem, missing the final 14 games with a foot injury.
He had been leading the team in scoring, at 14.9 points per game, and after he went down, Michigan lost nine of its final 14 games. He'd also been the team's top assist man (3.7 per game) and three-point shooter (40.5 percent), and his absence was noticeable.
Now with his return, Michigan has a strong chance to rebound but will again rely on his play. That should result in LeVert having a big year on the offensive end.
No. 2 Shooting Guard: A.J. English, Iona
7 of 20
Year: Senior
Height, weight: 6'4", 190 lbs
The best player in the MAAC the past two seasons and one who figures to make an impact in the NBA in another year, A.J. English has been the key piece of a pair of strong Iona teams as one of its leading scorers and top assist men. He won't have as strong of a supporting cast around him in 2015-16 with the graduation of power forward David Laury, which just means English will have a chance to score even more.
Last season English—whose father, also named A.J., played two seasons in the NBA from 1990 to 1992—averaged 20.1 points per game on a team that won 26 games, third-most in program history. He made 106 three-pointers, hit 38.7 percent of his long-range attempts and averaged more than five assists per game.
At times last year he looked like a strong candidate to turn pro early, regularly drawing NBA scouts to Iona's small gym as well as to other MAAC facilities. A scout told Josh Newman of the Asbury Park Press that English "has the talent" to be a first-round pick in 2016, and a big senior year could further that possibility.
No. 1 Shooting Guard: Damion Lee, Louisville
8 of 20
Year: Senior
Height, weight: 6'6", 200 lbs
After spending last season on a bad team (Drexel) yet playing like a winner, Damion Lee gets to finish his college career with a much stronger program. And at Louisville, he will be stepping into a situation where he gets to be both a veteran presence and a go-to scorer.
Lee has already showed his scoring prowess, averaging 21.4 points per game in 2014-15 for a Drexel team that went 11-19 and had a dubious loss to Division II University of the Sciences. He had five 30-point games, including an eye-opening 32-point performance in a November loss to USC.
When he announced he would transfer for his final season, Lee was the hottest commodity on the grad transfer market and had the likes of Arizona, Gonzaga, Marquette and Maryland heavily interested in him. Louisville won out, with Lee fitting coach Rick Pitino's need for "more scoring and maturity," per Jeff Greer of the Louisville Courier-Journal.
The Cardinals lost 78 percent of their scoring from last year's Elite Eight team to graduation, early NBA departure, transfer or dismissal.
No. 4 Small Forward: Devin Robinson, Florida
9 of 20
Year: Sophomore
Height, weight: 6'8", 178 lbs
Not much went right for Florida last season, and that included how much Devin Robinson contributed in his first college season. The former 5-star recruit struggled to get (and stay) on the court, playing only 19 minutes per game as a freshman with 6.4 points per game on 40 percent shooting.
But now with a new coach and a new lineup, one in which Robinson will be expected to be a leader, he figures to be in line for a breakthrough season.
"We have a lot to prove," Robinson told Kevin Brockway of GatorSports.com. "We had a rough season last year so we've got a lot to prove this season."
Coach Michael White, who was massively successful at Louisiana Tech, had teams known for offensive freedom and the ability to have every player contribute to the scoring. This should free up Robinson to be far more involved in the offense, and with his length and athleticism this should translate into big points.
No. 3 Small Forward: Georges Niang, Iowa State
10 of 20
Year: Senior
Height, weight: 6'8", 230 lbs
Georges Niang has been one of the most consistent offensive forces in college basketball during his first three seasons at Iowa State. Now he's poised to take that last step before a pro career by being the Cyclones' senior leader at a critical time when the program is going through a coaching change.
With Murray State's Steve Prohm replacing favorite son Fred Hoiberg, Niang figures to be just as much a key piece of ISU's attack as he'd been the previous three years, when he averaged 14.7 points per game. He could take it a little further if he continues to improve on an outside shot that saw him hit 40 percent from three-point range in 2014-15.
Niang doesn't need to score a lot for ISU to be successful, not with the talent the Cyclones have coming back in the form of Naz Long, Monte Morris and Jameel McKay. But Niang does have the opportunity to take his game to the next level and maximize his skill set; he plays like a guard but handles the interior work as well as those much bigger than him.
No. 2 Small Forward: Kyle Wiltjer, Gonzaga
11 of 20
Year: Senior
Height, weight: 6'10", 240 lbs
Kyle Wiltjer was a productive player at Kentucky, but after sitting out a season following his transfer to Gonzaga, we got to see what he could really accomplish. And that turned out to be a lot more than people expected at first, as Wiltjer transformed his game from just being a perimeter player to one who could handle every spot on the floor.
"No longer was he content to float to the perimeter and shoot a steady diet of catch-and-shoot threes," Jeff Eisenberg of Yahoo Sports wrote. "He became tougher to guard because he learned to exploit mismatches, backing down smaller defenders in the low post or forcing lumbering opposing big men to try to stay with him on the perimeter."
The result was a huge boost in production, as he led the Bulldogs in scoring (16.8 points per game) and three-point shooting (46.6 percent). He was the best player on Gonzaga's best team yet under coach Mark Few, as the Bulldogs reached the Elite Eight for the first time since 1999.
Gonzaga will again be one of the top teams in the country, and Wiltjer again will be the driving force and the go-to producer who can score from all over.
No. 1 Small Forward: Jaylen Brown, California
12 of 20
Year: Freshman
Height, weight: 6'7", 220 lbs
Jaylen Brown was a highly coveted prospect in the 2015 recruiting class who had most of the top programs chasing after him, but in the end the prolific scorer chose unheralded California over blue bloods like Kansas, Kentucky, North Carolina and UCLA. Had he gone to any of those teams, he would have been a big piece of the puzzle, but with the Golden Bears he could end up being the top-scoring freshman in the country.
Brown averaged 28 points and 12 rebounds per game as a senior at Wheeler High School in Georgia, per Scott Phillips of College Basketball Talk.
Though he'll be on a team that also brings in 5-star power forward prospect Ivan Rabb and returns potent scorer Tyrone Wallace, Brown has the athleticism and pro-ready game that figure to put Cal over the top.
No. 4 Power Forward: Cheick Diallo, Kansas
13 of 20
Year: Freshman
Height, weight: 6'9", 220 lbs
One of the biggest risers during the late stages of the 2015 recruiting cycle was Cheick Diallo, who thanks to a pair of massive performances in spring all-star games jumped to No. 5 overall in the rankings before picking Kansas. The Jayhawks are the perfect fit for what Diallo brings to the court, which is a combination of shot-blocking, rebounding and finishing at the rim—things Kansas sorely missed this past season.
Kansas didn't have a reliable inside scoring presence in 2014-15, something Cliff Alexander was supposed to have been but never turned into before leaving after one season. That clears room for Diallo to be that guy, and if he can score like he did on the all-star circuit, then Kansas should have no problem continuing its long run of Big 12 regular-season titles.
Diallo was named the MVP of both the Jordan Brand Classic and the McDonald's All-American Game, scoring a combined 44 points in those contests.
No. 3 Power Forward: Alex Poythress, Kentucky
14 of 20
Year: Senior
Height, weight: 6'8", 238 lbs
Of all the superstars that Kentucky has recruited and developed into NBA draft picks under John Calipari, one player stands out for what he's been unable to accomplish. That would be Alex Poythress, a former 5-star prospect whose best season came during the Wildcats' infamous 2012-13 season when they were defending champs but failed to reach the NCAA tournament.
Since then it's been a series of struggles for Poythress, either in terms of performance or because of injury. He went from 11.2 points per game and 58 percent shooting as a freshman to 5.9 points and 49.7 percent shooting as a sophomore. He saw his scoring dip to 5.5 percent and his shooting fall to 38.1 percent last season before he suffered a knee injury that knocked him out after eight games.
Poythress was supposed to be the eighth of Kentucky's players to turn pro after 2014-15, but because of the knee injury he had to hold off on that move. But now, with the lineup that Kentucky will have this season being far more guard-oriented, Poythress will finally get to return to his natural power forward position, where he was at his most successful in the past.
Assuming his rehab goes well, look for him to be both that rare senior leader as well as one of the Wildcats' most productive players in 2015-16.
No. 2 Power Forward: Shawn Long, Louisiana-Lafayette
15 of 20
Year: Senior
Height, weight: 6'9", 255 lbs
In his three college seasons, there's very little that Shawn Long hasn't accomplished. He's the NCAA's active leader in double-doubles with 52, as he's averaged more than 10 rebounds and at least 15 points per game every year.
Long hasn't limited his production to just in the paint, though, as he's one of the better-shooting big men in the country. Last year's 36.4 percent rate from three-point range was a dip from the 42.3 percent he hit on as a sophomore, but it was still better than most perimeter players.
But it's because of his rebounding prowess that he's able to score so consistently. With a career offensive rebound percentage of 12.2, per Sports-Reference.com, Long is a master of the putback and second-chance basket.
No. 1 Power Forward: Ben Simmons, LSU
16 of 20
Year: Freshman
Height, weight: 6'10", 240 lbs
The top player from the 2015 recruiting class has been committed to LSU since October 2013, and thus Ben Simmons has long been considered the future of a program that's been hoping to return to the upper echelon for quite some time. And in Simmons, LSU has a unique player who will get listed as a 4 but would stand out at any of the five spots on the court.
"With power forward size, center length and guard skills, Simmons is a Scottie Pippen-type package," Chris Mannix of Sports Illustrated wrote.
Often called a "point forward" because of his ball-handling skills, Simmons will create for himself and others. He averaged more than 28 points per game for Montverde Academy, a Florida prep school that reached the Dick's National High School Tournament semifinals.
LSU also has highly regarded guard Antonio Blakeney coming in this year, but Simmons will still be the focal point of the Tigers offense.
No. 4 Center: Kaleb Tarczewski, Arizona
17 of 20
Year: Senior
Height, weight: 7'0", 243 lbs
After three seasons of seemingly being on the cusp of greatness, only to fail to get over the hump, could Kaleb Tarczewski's senior year at Arizona be his time to shine? One thing is for certain: There won't be the same kind of frontcourt depth around him getting in the way, so he will have no excuse if he doesn't produce.
Tarczewski has shot 56.8 percent for his career, but he's only taken 5.4 shots per game and as a result has yet to average double figures in a season. A lack of opportunities contributed to this performance, but so did poor hands that resulted in a high rate of turnovers (1.4 per game) for a big man.
The touches should be more prevalent this season, as Brandon Ashley and Stanley Johnson have turned pro and Arizona's 2015 recruiting class is more guard-oriented. With more attention being paid to the Wildcats' perimeter players this season, Tarczewski could benefit if he can fix his ball-handling problems.
No. 3 Center: Jakob Poeltl, Utah
18 of 20
Year: Sophomore
Height, weight: 7'0", 230 lbs
Jakob Poeltl was not one of the most heralded freshmen heading into last season, but at times during the year he was getting such rave reviews that a quick jump to the pros seemed possible. He opted to forgo NBA draft, though, and now he'll head into his sophomore season with much higher expectations.
Poeltl had a big debut in 2014-15, scoring in double figures in four of his first seven games, though he went through a prolonged slump in the middle of the season. He finishing hot, however, averaging 13.5 points over his final six games and shooting 74 percent in three NCAA tournament games. For the year he contributed 9.1 points per game on 68 percent shooting.
Utah will have a different look this season with Delon Wright having graduated, which should open up more opportunities for Poeltl to contribute on the offensive end.
No. 2 Center: Henry Ellenson, Marquette
19 of 20
Year: Freshman
Height, weight: 6'10", 231 lbs
Marquette's first season under former Duke assistant Steve Wojciechowski was a difficult one, but much of that had to do with the Golden Eagles' lack of size on the interior. Henry Ellenson's arrival will do a lot to help in that area, but he won't just be a big body taking up space.
Before breaking his hand in the Wisconsin high school state semifinals in March, Ellenson was scoring at a high rate and not just because he was bigger than most players on the court. His game figures to translate well to what Wojciechowski wants to do with Marquette, and Ellenson and 6'11" center Luke Fischer could make for a dynamic post duo.
No. 1 Center: A.J. Hammons, Purdue
20 of 20
Year: Senior
Height, weight: 7'0", 260 lbs
With the late acquisition of 5-star prospect Caleb Swanigan, Purdue figures to have one of the most formidable front lines in the country. It will also include one of the most experienced centers in Division I, as A.J. Hammons is back for a fourth season as the Boilermakers' starting center.
He has never been a big-time scorer, but he's never struggled to produce. His career scoring average of 11.1 points per game has provided Purdue with consistent points from the 5, and while Swanigan and 7'2" sophomore Isaac Haas could take away from his chances, Hammons should get the bulk of the chances as the veteran presence.
Recruit rankings courtesy of 247Sports.
Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.
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