Early 2015 NFL MVP Race and Top Dark-Horse Candidates Who Could Emerge

As we begin to look at who we think has a chance to take the 2015 NFL MVP award, we need to make sure that the ground we're planting our flag on has a sturdy foundation. Here are a few things I considered in trying to determine my favorites.

Seven of the last eight MVP awards have gone to quarterbacks: As the perception of the importance of the running game has declined, running backs have lost standing in the MVP race. DeMarco Murray had one of the 20 best rushing seasons in NFL history by yardage, and received just two of 50 votes last season. It's almost always safer to pick a quarterback to win. 

Historical numbers matter: When Adrian Peterson won the award following the 2012 season, he won it because he almost broke the single-season NFL rushing record. When J.J. Watt finished second in 2014, he scored five touchdowns as a defender, and became one of just 10 players to reach the 20-sack threshold—the only one to do it twice. As much as we like to pretend that baseball is the sport of number clubs—500 homers, 40 homers and 40 steals, and so on, football's narrative is driven in much the same way.

Winning is a prerogative: Simply put, if you don't make the playoffs, you can't win the MVP award. None of the last 20 winners missed the playoffs. Barry Sanders came the closest, in 1997 for a 9-7 team—and he split the award with Brett Favre mostly because of how unimpressive the Lions were.

With that criteria in mind, here's a look at the favorites and a few of the top dark-horse candidates.

Favorite: Aaron Rodgers

Elaine Thompson/Associated Press

Notable 2014 stats: 1,564 DYAR (second), 32.2% DVOA (first), 550 passes for 4,168 yards, 38 touchdowns and five interceptions

The case for: Absolutely nothing has changed. 

The Packers were able to re-sign both wideout Randall Cobb and right tackle Bryan Bulaga to win-discounted contracts. Rodgers has already begun to trumpet wide receiver Davante Adams as a guy ready to take a step forward. Tight end Richard Rodgers may also blossom a bit. There's basically no reason to look at the Packers and conclude that Rodgers (Aaron) won't be leading the most explosive offense in the NFL.

The case against: Rodgers' biggest problem has been injuries. He's missed nine games over the past five seasons, and clearly played hurt down the stretch after having his calf injured. That hardly makes Rodgers non-durable, but that's the clearest strike against his candidacy. 

Contenders: Luck, Roethlisberger, Brady and Manning

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Andrew Luck

Notable 2014 stats: 879 DYAR (10th), 9.2% DVOA (first), 645 passes for 4,573 yards, 40 touchdowns and 16 interceptions

The case for: Absolutely everything has changed.

The Colts spent big this offseason, reeling in running back Frank Gore and wide receiver Andre Johnson, and drafting wideout Phillip Dorsett in the first round. Those who have been waiting for Luck to take the next step have long decried the lack of supporting cast—especially at running back, where Trent Richardson anchored down the entire offense.

Luck took a step forward in terms of efficiency last season, but now it's time for him to take another.

Playing in the AFC South and having a paved path to the playoffs doesn't hurt, either. 

The case against: Luck's offensive line is still an area that gives people some pause, though I tend to believe those concerns are a bit overblown and that Luck has a hand in all the hits he takes. The Colts have tried 2014 second-rounder Jack Mewhort at tackle during OTAs, which says a lot in how confident they feel about Gosder Cherilus going forward.

Ben Roethlisberger

Notable 2014 stats: 1,572 DYAR (first), 26.8% DVOA (fourth), 636 passes for 4,761 yards, 32 touchdowns and nine interceptions

The case for: This is the best skill position group around Roethlisberger in years, and it all culminated in a midseason stretch where wideout Martavis Bryant made fools of the entire NFL. You'd be hard-pressed to come up with a better receiving corps in the league right now than Bryant, Antonio Brown, Markus Wheaton and Sammie Coates. 

He also has a chance to put up some prestigious numbers in shootouts given how badly the Pittsburgh defense has slumped over the past few seasons. And, as we pointed out in the introduction, shiny numbers can do a lot for a case. What if Roethlisberger threw for 5,500 yards, breaking Peyton Manning's record?

The case against: Roethlisberger's defense needs to be bad enough to keep letting him prove his value, but they also have to be good enough to not sink the entire season. The Steelers need to actually make the playoffs. There's a good chance they will, but the AFC North is still a pretty tough division. 

Peyton Manning

Notable 2014 stats: 1,412 DYAR (third), 23.9% DVOA (fifth), 615 passes for 4,589 yards, 39 touchdowns and 15 interceptions

The case for: This isn't the first time an NFL media corps has looked at Manning and thrown its hands up. Manning's faltering health against the Colts in the playoffs not withstanding, he played much of the year as one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. Manning was counted out after the neck injury that made him miss much of 2011—expecting his game to completely fall off because he's now older is like expecting Dracula to let the girl who wandered into his castle live.

The case against: Well, first there's the potential of the injury. Second, Julius Thomas fled for Jacksonville, leaving a large receiving production void to be filled by untested second-year receiver Cody Latimer. 

But, perhaps most importantly, what new head coach Gary Kubiak does to the way Manning plays is going to be the big determining factor. Spending more time under center and emphasizing the running game are great ways to make a quarterback more efficient. When your quarterback is already a robotic killing machine, though...well, it's fair to wonder how Manning could possibly benefit from the arrangement.

Tom Brady

Notable 2014 stats: 1,176 DYAR (sixth), 18.1% DVOA (sixth), 602 passes for 3,950 yards, 33 touchdowns and nine interceptions

The case for: Welcome to the narrative. 

If Brady's suspension from...I refuse to use the suffix "-gate," so let's call it the ball-deflation thing. If that suspension is upheld, and the Patriots start off slow with Jimmy Garoppolo, we've got a custom-built scenario for Brady to prove his worth. Without any PSI antics. 

The Patriots are, as always, one of the top contenders in the NFL. If they can roll off an 11-1 or 10-2 stretch with Brady under center, creating some sort of ridiculous win percentage, that will sway a lot of voters.

And, hey, if Bill Belichick wants to morph back into Bill Simmons' "Eff-You" mode? Well, they can probably manage enough production around Rob Gronkowski to make it happen. 

The case against: Brady's season statistics will suffer in the harsh light of four missed games. And this is a guy who wasn't necessarily lighting it up to begin with in that category in recent memory. Even a two-game reduced suspension could put him at 3,500 yards instead of 4,000. 

And you know a section of the voting bloc will throw their hands up about rewarding a known "cheater," even if basically everyone in the NFL attempts to game the system in some way. Brady will suffer because his was the one that surfaced. Such is his trial.

Dark Horse No. 5: Adrian Peterson

Jim Mone/Associated Press

Notable 2013 stats: 60 DYAR (25th), -3.1% DVOA (26th), 278 carries for 1,264 yards and 10 touchdowns, with three fumbles

The case for: Peterson has his best quarterback since Brett Favre in Teddy Bridgewater, and from the small amount of predictions I've seen, the Vikings will be a popular pick to enter the NFC playoff picture. 

While Peterson is an old running back, and that class of player doesn't tend to give us much in the way of historic performances, he did get pretty much the entirety of last season off due to discipline stemming from a domestic violence case. Every bit of pounding a running back doesn't take is a good thing. And Peterson is a special athlete, one who has run for 2,000 yards coming off of a season-ending injury. He's also a player who has a sense of his legacy, and how important a few great seasons could be for his Hall of Fame chances. In short, Peterson has all the motivation in the world and the freshest legs he's had since 2012.  

The case against: Peterson could find himself on the wrong side of two of the introductory tenets: a non-quarterback on a non-playoff team. 

Additionally, you have to wonder how the media cycle would play itself out if Peterson were to be in the hunt for an MVP award. This isn't as black and white and as established as cheating, which Brady is dealing with. Peterson's dirty laundry on display could go a few different directions, and more than likely would go to both at once. A vocal minority of fans will wonder how a player who was suspended for so long could even be considered for this award. And, at the same time, we'd likely see five-to-10-minute hagiographies hit all the Sunday morning pregame shows, stressing how much Peterson has overcome. 

I don't really go in on either side here. I think we should award the MVP to the actual most valuable player. But a possible Peterson candidacy would be an interesting trial balloon in this new, extremely PR-conscious NFL.

Dark Horse No. 4: Matt Ryan

John Bazemore/Associated Press

Notable 2014 stats: 1,101 DYAR (seventh), 14.9% DVOA (ninth), 654 passes for 4,491 yards, 28 touchdowns and 13 interceptions

The case for: Ryan has been doing some incredibly heavy lifting over the past two seasons, but since the Falcons stopped winning, nobody was around to applaud it. Ryan's statistics have remained stellar even as Julio Jones missed most of 2013, even as Tony Gonzalez retired, and even as the Falcons offensive line dissolved into a molten pile of sadness. 

Envision a comeback season for Ryan, spearheaded by higher efficiency as the Falcons move to new offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan's system. Shanahan was the architect behind Matt Schaub leading the league in passing yards, and Robert Griffin's amazing first season. Keep in mind that, even if that sounds a little crazy, the Falcons play one of the worst schedules in the NFL. As long as they're in the playoff conversation, a little bit of narrative may give Ryan a boost.   

The case against: Ryan doesn't play defense, though he may consider taking it up after looking at the depth chart in Atlanta. His candidacy depends a lot on Vic Beasley making an immediate impact at head coach Dan Quinn's Leo role. A non-Paul Worrilow linebacker wouldn't hurt either. This defense is bad enough to sabotage Atlanta's playoff hopes, which would submarine Ryan's MVP chances.

Additionally, I've noticed a number of smart people parading the idea that Julio Jones is more important for the Falcons than Ryan. I would respectfully disagree, but the very notion that this could be true would poison Ryan's MVP odds if it became an actual debate.

Dark Horse No. 3: Cam Newton

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Notable 2014 stats: -105 DYAR (36th), -14.5% DVOA (33rd), 485 passes for 2,841 yards, 18 touchdowns and 11 interceptions

The case for: Let's get this out of the way now: Newton's statistics were garbage last season, but they were garbage because he endured one of the toughest seasons in the NFL. While playing around life-threatening car wrecks, broken ribs and wisdom teeth extraction, Newton also was in an offense where No. 1 receiver Kelvin Benjamin dropped more balls than any player in the NFL, behind one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. Any quarterback would've put up bad numbers in those circumstances. 

But what emboldens me in putting Newton on this list is his early play. While Newton was forced to stay in the pocket due to those rib injuries and not try to run around all over the place, he was showing some signs of becoming a better pocket passer. That all unraveled as the season went further down the Dante's Inferno torture circles, but I'm convinced there's still another bump in performance in here.

The case against: Outside of the fact that Newton has never played at an MVP level before, he's also going to suffer from the perception against run-first quarterbacks, even if they don't run first. Perhaps a few high-profile games where his read-option capabilities help the Panthers in crucial situations could turn that narrative, but that's asking for a lot to go right. 

Carolina's defense is also too good for the Panthers to really play the shootout game and give Newton the ridiculous statistics you'd like to see in an MVP candidate. 

Dark Horse No. 2: J.J. Watt

David J. Phillip/Associated Press

Notable 2014 stats: 20.5 sacks, leader of Houston's -6.2% sixth-ranked DVOA defense, +107.5 PFF grade

The case for: There is no NFL player better than J.J. Watt at the job he is asked to do. There may be no players better than J.J. Watt at jobs they weren't asked to do, if we look at Watt's receiving prowess as a harbinger of the truth. 

Watt is on such a high trajectory to begin his career that he may go down as an inner-circle Hall of Famer. No player combines his prowess against the run with his prowess as a pass-rusher. No player combines that with the ability to tip balls at the line of scrimmage. In short, Watt's past three seasons have created numbers that when charted stack up with the imagined stats of pass-rushing forefathers like Deacon Jones, who played in an era where they didn't even keep sacks. 

Watt is on this list because he is the best player in the NFL. 

The case against: It's hard to believe that Watt could have a year go more in his favor than 2014 did. He's still not a quarterback. Houston's actual quarterbacks range anywhere from untested, if you want to be charitable, to potentially awful. (Maybe it's time for Watt to run the Single Wing under center.) And, because of that quarterback play, Houston projects to have to fight its way into the playoffs.

And in that year where everything went right, Watt didn't win the MVP, even in a year where every quarterback had noticeable blemishes on their record. His team didn't make the playoffs, he didn't break the sack record and he didn't lead the league in sacks. He'll essentially have to do all three of those to sniff the trophy.

Dark Horse No. 1: Russell Wilson

Matt Slocum/Associated Press

Notable 2014 stats: 503 DYAR (13th), 5.5% DVOA (14th), 495 passes for 3,241 yards, 20 touchdowns and seven interceptions

The case for: Wilson's statistics suffered as Seattle pared down its passing game last season. Whether the coaches believed the offensive line too poor, the receiving corps too raw or Wilson too risky is in the eye of the beholder. What we know is that Wilson has proven he can play at an MVP level before, and that presumably he's healthy and ready to do so again. 

Wilson now has Jimmy Graham to throw to, as well. Graham probably becomes instantly the best target Wilson has ever played with, and that should open up not only an always-open target, but should reduce the pressure on the rest of Seattle's receivers.

And I don't believe in this, but if you're a fan of the whole "contract year" theory, Wilson could enter the season with more motivation in that area than any quarterback in recent memory. That's worth considering.

The case against: While Seattle invested heavily in fixing the offensive line this offseason—mostly in the draft—that's not a guarantee that it will be fixed instantly. Losing Max Unger will hurt, and this was a line that already put Wilson in a lot of precarious situations last season. 

Again, I go back to what I said in Newton's comment: Is there going to be a clear bias against Wilson as a running quarterback? The Seahawks have put him in a box where Marshawn Lynch and the defense will also get plenty of credit, so it may take some high-profile clutch games to shift popular opinion on the subject.