NCAA Tournament Regulars in Danger of Missing the Big Dance in 2016

Wisconsin has been to two consecutive Final Fours and 17 straight NCAA tournaments, but the Badgers are one of 10 tournament regulars in danger of missing the Big Dance in 2016. 

Last year, we were nearly overrun with tournament regulars watching from home. Connecticut, Florida, Illinois, Marquette, Memphis, Pittsburgh and Syracuse have each participated in at least 10 of the past 15 dances, but they were nowhere to be found in the 2015 brackets.

Which teams will follow suit next March?

Based on our criteria for tournament regulars—at least 10 dances in the past 15 years or at least seven appearances in the past 15 years with four coming in the past five years—there are just 31 teams to choose from. A good number of those teams such as Duke, Gonzaga, Kansas, Kentucky and Villanova aren't even remotely in danger of missing the 2016 tournament, so it was slim pickings.

Still, it wasn't too hard to find 10 teams who aren't exactly a lock to be announced on Selection Sunday in nine months.

The teams on the following slides are ranked in increasing order of likelihood of missing the tournament. The first few teams are slightly more likely to make the tournament than not, but the top five are coin flips, at best.

10. Florida Gators

Mark D. Smith-USA TODAY Sports

Tournaments Since 2001: 12

Tournaments Since 2011: 4

Notable Departures: Billy Donovan, Michael Frazier II, Chris Walker, Jon Horford, Eli Carter

As a matter of full disclosure, I initially had the Gators penciled down for a spot in the top three. They missed the tournament last year. They lost their head coach and three of their five leading scorers. They didn't land any 5-star recruits.

Normally, that's a recipe for disaster. It's pretty close to the formula that Marquette followed in advance of last year's predictably poor 13-19 record.

But then I remembered that Michael White was a pretty doggone good coach at Louisiana Tech over the past four years. And that Brandone Francis was a highly rated shooting guard before being ruled ineligible for the entire 2014-15 season. (He could have the type of "whoa, I forgot how good he was supposed to be" impact for Florida that Xavier Rathan-Mayes had last year for Florida State.) The addition of South Florida transfer John Egbunu will be pretty crucial, too.

While the Gators are still nowhere close to being a lock for the 2016 NCAA tournament, our outlook on their season isn't nearly as pessimistic or knee-jerky as it was right after Billy Donovan jumped ship for the Thunder job. A starting five made up of Kasey Hill, Francis, Devin Robinson, Dorian Finney-Smith and Egbunu with KeVaughn Allen, Chris Chiozza, Alex Murphy and Keith Stone off the bench should be quite formidable in the SEC.

At the same time, though, with this much change comes a significant degree of uncertainty. The roster has a good amount of talent, but how well will it jell together in a new system?

Forced to wager on whether the Gators will make the tourney, our guess would be that we see them dancing. But it would be neither a big bet nor a confident one by any means.

9. North Carolina State Wolfpack

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Tournaments Since 2001: 9

Tournaments Since 2011: 4

Notable Departures: Trevor Lacey, Ralston Turner, Kyle Washington, Desmond Lee

Who is going to score for this team?

According to KenPom.com, Trevor Lacey took 24.5 percent of NC State's field-goal attempts while on the court. Kyle Washington also averaged 24.5 percent. Ralston Turner checked in at 23.7 percent. No one else had a rate of 21 percent or higher.

All three of those players are gone—Turner graduated, Lacey went pro a year early and Washington transferred—leaving the Wolfpack to rely very heavily on West Virginia transfer Terry Henderson and significantly increased roles for Cat Barber, Abdul-Malik Abu and BeeJay Anya.

That isn't necessarily a death sentence. Henderson was a very solid scorer in his two years with the Mountaineers, Barber is a perfectly capable scoring point guard and Abu is a prime candidate for a breakout year.

However, a lot of things need to go right for the Wolfpack to remain a better-than-average team in the ACC.

For instance, what happens if Barber or Henderson fails to deliver on potential? Or worse, what if either one misses any time for any reason? Barber is the only returning guard on this roster who played more than 10 minutes last season and they don't have any guards in their incoming recruiting class. That means someone like Chris Corchiani Jr. would need to come out of nowhere to produce at a high level.

That's more than enough cause for concern to make NC State a candidate to miss the tournament.

8. Wisconsin Badgers

Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports

Tournaments Since 2001: 15

Tournaments Since 2011: 5

Notable Departures: Frank Kaminsky, Sam Dekker, Josh Gasser, Traevon Jackson, Duje Dukan

The Badgers are one of just eight teams to ever appear in at least 17 consecutive NCAA tournaments. They are one of only five teams with an active streak of at least 10 straight dances. With a .741 winning percentage over the past 14 seasons, Bo Ryan is undeniably one of the best current college basketball coaches in the country.

I fully appreciate how consistently great they have been. 

But every streak must eventually come to an end, and this is as good a year as any to anticipate a lackluster campaign for Wisconsin.

On the internal front, the roster will be nothing compared to last year. With all due respect to Bronson Koenig and Nigel Hayes, they aren't Frank Kaminsky and Sam Dekker. They won't have anything close to the supporting cast that those presumed first-round picks had, either.

Zak Showalter and Vitto Brown will have substantially increased roles this season. Redshirt freshman Ethan Happ should help fill the voids in the frontcourt. True freshman Brevin Pritzl will add some depth to the backcourt. However, to be a tournament team, they'll need an injury-free year in which each of those four players reaches lofty expectations placed upon them for little reason other than Ryan's coaching prowess.

Externally, the Badgers will have their hands full with an absurdly difficult schedule. Maryland might open the season ranked No. 1 in the nation. Indiana and Michigan State will probably check in just outside the Top 10. Purdue should sneak into the preseason AP Top 25. Wisconsin will play home-and-home games against all four of those Big Ten teams (as well as Illinois).

We don't yet know Wisconsin's entire nonconference slate, but we do know the Badgers will at least be playing Oklahoma, Syracuse, Temple, Marquette and two of Duke, Georgetown and VCU in the 2K Sports Classic.

That's all great for the RPI and strength of schedule, but they'll need to actually win a good number of those games for it to matter. Unless this roster turns out to be drastically more talented than assumed, that's going to be a tall order.

I'm not saying Wisconsin will definitely miss the tournament. I'm not even comfortable saying that it's particularly likely to happen. But it's definitely within the realm of possibility.

7. Ohio State Buckeyes

Greg Bartram-USA TODAY Sports

Tournaments Since 2001: 11

Tournaments Since 2011: 5

Notable Departures: D'Angelo Russell, Shannon Scott, Sam Thompson, Amir Williams, Trey McDonald, Anthony Lee

For better or worse, Ohio State is going to be one of the youngest teams in the entire country.

There will be no seniors. Three-point specialist Marc Loving is the only junior. Sophomores Jae'Sean Tate, Kam Williams and Keita Bates-Diop will need to make major contributions after a freshman season primarily spent watching D'Angelo Russell do his thing. Freshmen Daniel Giddens and JaQuan Lyle will need to make an immediate impact, as will Virginia Tech transfer Trevor Thompson.

The good news is that though they're inexperienced, the Buckeyes are loaded with talent. Loving and Williams were 4-star recruits in 2013. Tate and Bates-Diop were 4-star guys last year. And Thad Matta is adding five 4-star players this year.

That's a lot of stars, but who is the singular star of this team?

Wisconsin lost a ton of talent, but at least the Badgers can count on Bronson Koenig as a ball-handler in late-game situations, can rely on Nigel Hayes to grab important rebounds and can expect both to score clutch baskets. Maybe one or two players quickly step up to fill those roles for the Buckeyes, but it's equally possible that they stumble through the season without an alpha dog.

Worse yet, they could have several players try to play the lead and simply fall short.

If Russell had decided to come back for another year, he would have been surrounded by excellent role players on a team well-positioned for a deep run. Without Russell and all of last year's seniors, though, the lack of leadership and experience could prove costly.

6. Brigham Young Cougars

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Tournaments Since 2001: 11

Tournaments Since 2011: 4

Notable Departures: Tyler Haws, Skyler Halford, Anson Winder

Based on the past several seasons, we might as well rename the bubble to the BYU-bble, because the Cougars have basically been living on the tournament cut line on an annual basis. They have been a double-digit seed in three of the past four tournaments, twice partook in a "play-in game" and once earned a No. 3 seed in the NIT.

At this point, it's probably pretty safe to just assume that BYU will be a topic of much debate in early March.

But the rationale for ranking the Cougars here is more than just recent history. Simply put, it's really difficult to not experience some sort of drop after losing one of the best scorers in the nation.

Of all teams, BYU should know that. The Cougars went 32-5 with Jimmer Fredette setting the nets on fire in 2010-11, but they just barely eked their way into the tournament the following year, despite returning Brandon Davies, Charles Abouo and Noah Hartsock while transitioning from the Mountain West Conference to the less challenging West Coast Conference.

This time around, though, they lose three of their five best scorers, remain in the same conference (with Gonzaga still very strong and Pepperdine threatening to make a leap) and their starting point is as a No. 11 seed as opposed to a No. 3 seed.

Kyle Collinsworth is a phenom and Chase Fischer is a pretty solid shooter, but expecting this team to be as good or better than it was last season might be a bit too optimistic. And considering they played in Dayton in the first round, being even slightly less successful than last season would likely result in no tournament this year.

5. Belmont Bruins

Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

Tournaments Since 2001: 7

Tournaments Since 2011: 4

Notable Departures: Reece Chamberlain

Belmont is the only "auto bid or bust" team that qualifies as a tournament regular, and the Bruins find themselves in the top five for that very reason.

Without a doubt, they should be the best team in the Ohio Valley Conference. Reece Chamberlain isn't exactly a minor loss, but he wasn't the most important player for the Bruins, either. They still have Craig Bradshaw, Taylor Barnette and Evan Bradds—which better come to be known as the Belmont Bees henceforth. That trio of players represents substantially more talent than Eastern Kentucky, Murray State or Tennessee-Martin will be returning.

But go ahead and ask Murray State if having the most talented roster in the conference assures you a spot in the NCAA tournament.

For most of the teams on the list, to miss the tournament would necessitate a worse-than-usual performance for the entire season, resulting in at least 12 losses. For Belmont, all it would take is one bad night (or a really great night by an opponent) in the OVC tournament and the Bruins will be shipped off to the NIT.

It's a hard-knock life trying to be a tournament regular as a minor conference program. Belmont has done quite well to this point, but it's still going to need to find some luck at the end of the season to keep it going.

4. Syracuse Orange

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Tournaments Since 2001: 11

Tournaments Since 2011: 4

Notable Departures: Rakeem Christmas, Chris McCullough, B.J. Johnson, Ron Patterson

Will DaJuan Coleman finally be healthy enough to play?

Now that there are no longer hardship waivers for non-graduate transfers—thus eliminating the months spent guessing whether certain transfers would or would not be ruled immediately eligible—Coleman's health is going to be one of the biggest X-factors of the entire offseason.

If he plays, stays healthy, is as effective as he was during the nonconference portion of the 2013-14 season and is able to play upward of 30 minutes per game, it would be huge for Syracuse. The Orange have a pretty decent returning core in Michael Gbinije, Trevor Cooney, Kaleb Joseph and Tyler Roberson, and a reliable big man would put them in pretty good shape.

However, after an injury-shortened 2012-13 season, an injury-shortened 2013-14 season and an entire 2014-15 season on the sideline, putting eggs in the Coleman basket is a risk we aren't willing to take.

Let's play it safe and assume he plays around 300 total minutes. Whether that's 25 minutes per game for 12 games or 10 minutes per game for 30 games is up to you, but we're simply not going to assume that he'll play 25 minutes per game for 30 games.

Under that premise, Syracuse is forced to rely quite heavily on freshman big men Moustapha Diagne and Tyler Lydon, as well as freshman small forward Malachi Richardson—a 4-star player who figures to be very much in the mix for a starting job with or without Coleman in the picture.

At that point, we're forced to wonder just how well Cooney and Gbinije can function as primary scorers, how well Roberson can operate as the team's best interior option and how much stock we can put into a class of freshmen that is deep but devoid of any 5-star players.

Jim Boeheim has done some terrific coaching in his 39-year career, but the 40th could be the most challenging season yet.

3. Oklahoma State Cowboys

Orlin Wagner/Associated Press

Tournaments Since 2001: 10

Tournaments Since 2011: 3

Notable Departures: Le'Bryan Nash, Michael Cobbins, Anthony Hickey Jr.

Oklahoma State still has Phil Forte. Thus concludes the list of reasons for Oklahoma State fans to be excited about next season.

OK, maybe it isn't that bad, but contained in that group of notable departures are three of the four leading scorers, the top three rebounders, the top two shot-blockers and the top two assist-producers from last season. That's an awful lot that needs to be replaced just to remain as good as the team that lost 14 games last year.

The Cowboys do add Chris Olivier, who averaged 13.0 points in just 23.0 minutes per game last season with Eastern Illinois. They also gain a talented freshman point guard in Jawun Evans and a big-bodied JUCO transfer in Igor Ibaka.

If all three of those new players hit the ground running, Forte continues to shoot well and Jeff Newberry remains as efficient as last season while playing considerably more minutes, there's at least a reasonable chance that Oklahoma State will put up enough of a fight in the Big 12 to make the tournament.

Our assumption is that the Cowboys are pretty firmly entrenched in seventh place in the conference pecking order—comfortably ahead of Kansas State, TCU and Texas Tech, but a very large stone's throw away from the top six teams. To go dancing, they'll likely need to do some serious damage during the nonconference portion of the season, which might need to include meeting and beating Virginia in the Charleston Classic one week into the season.

With so many new pieces, that type of excellence that early in the year might be impossible, and the Cowboys could then be fighting an uphill battle the rest of the way.

2. Marquette Golden Eagles

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Tournaments Since 2001: 10

Tournaments Since 2011: 3

Notable Departures: Matt Carlino, Derrick Wilson, Juan Anderson, Steve Taylor

Led by McDonald's All-American Henry Ellenson, Steve Wojciechowski has a pretty strong recruiting class in his second season as the head coach of Marquette. It should only be a matter of time before he has this team back among the class of the Big East.

But it's probably not going to be this season, because that recruiting class doesn't even do enough to recoup what the Golden Eagles lost from last year's 13-19 roster. Ellenson fills a void at power forward that grew even deeper when Steve Taylor decided to transfer, but losing both Matt Carlino and Derrick Wilson leaves this team without anything resembling veteran leadership in the backcourt.

Due to the lack of options, Duane Wilson and JaJuan Johnson have to be considered the front-runners to start at the guard positions, but neither one has much experience as the floor general of a collegiate offense. Johnson doesn't make for much of a shooting guard, either, having made just 24.0 percent of his three-point attempts over the past two years.

Because of that, freshmen Traci Carter and Haanif Cheatham will receive a lot of playing time, regardless of how ready they are for the moment. And sophomore Sandy Cohen will need to contribute significantly more than the 3.8 points per game he scored last year.

The good news is that there isn't a single senior on the roster this coming season. Marquette is a team poised for a huge breakout in 2016-17. And, who knows, the Golden Eagles might find a way to be a year ahead of schedule in a conference that should be wide open beyond Villanova, Butler and Georgetown. However, chances are they'll have one more not-so-stellar season before reascending to national relevance.

1. Virginia Commonwealth Rams

Zach Gibson/Associated Press

Tournaments Since 2001: 8

Tournaments Since 2011: 5

Notable Departures: Shaka Smart, Treveon Graham, Briante Weber, Terry Larrier, Jordan Murphy, Kenny Williams, Tevin Mack

Losing Treveon Graham and Briante Weber was inevitable, as they were out of years of eligibility. But it was when the Rams lost Shaka Smart that everything else began to unravel.

Less than a week after Smart signed with Texas, Tevin Mack requested to get out of his national letter of intent with VCU. According to Isabelle Khurshudyan of the Washington Post, Mack's mother, Paula, said, "The No. 1 reason why he chose VCU was Coach Smart." Not surprisingly, he eventually committed to play for the Longhorns.

Two days after Mack jumped ship, Kenny Williams and Jordan Murphy did the same, as first reported on Twitter by Tim Pearrell of the Richmond Times-Dispatch. Williams eventually signed with Roy Williams and North Carolina while Murphy landed in Minnesota.

About three weeks later, Jon Rothstein of CBS Sports reported that Terry Larrier—the prize of VCU's 2014 recruiting class—was transferring. He signed with Connecticut in late May.

As a result of all that exodus, VCU is left with a thin roster and a coach with just two years of head coaching experience at a Southern Conference program (Chattanooga). Will Wade was Smart's assistant for four years, but that doesn't mean he's a clone of Smart. In fact, his teams at Chattanooga were below the national average in defensive turnover percentage.

The addition of Korey Billbury (14.4 PPG at Oral Roberts last year) should help, but there's going to be a lot of pressure on guys like Jordan Burgess, Doug Brooks and JeQuan Lewis to play massive roles in order for the Rams to remain a tournament team.

I like Wade's chances of keeping this program from descending back to the levels of anonymity it was playing at a decade ago, but it might take a minor miracle for him to come in and immediately lead the Rams to a sixth consecutive tournament appearance.

Kerry Miller covers college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @kerrancejames.