Liver's Week 4 NFL Picks: Bengals to Cover Against the Patriots

At long last, we had a good weekend.

Week Three is when teams start to show their true colors, so hopefully last week’s record is an indication of good things to come on the wagering front. 

Lots of pushes so far. Last year there were a total of six...and we’re already up to five in Week Four.

Glad to see my NFC pick for the Super Bowl is off to an 0-3 start. You can go ahead and mark down the Saints as one-year wonders.

0-2 can be fixed. 0-3 is almost a death sentence.  

In the “Roger Goodell has too much time on his hands” news, the NFL recently mandated that home cheerleaders can no longer do stretching and warmups in front of the visiting team’s locker room.

What I want to know is what pussy-ass team official complained about that.

In the “Emmitt Smith sucks on TV” news, did anyone catch his prediction on NFL Sunday Countdown on which 0-2 team last week would go 0-3?

The 1-2 Chargers.

As if Dancing with the Stars wasn’t low enough. Glad that Florida degree is coming in handy.  

And now for the “I think I’m in love this week” news....

I’ll be the first one to tell you I haven’t noticed or cared about U.S.A. women’s soccer since Brandi Chastain took her shirt off in 1999. But all that changed yesterday when I laid eyes on U.S.A. goalkeeper Hope Solo (what a name).

Did you catch her calling out her stupid coach for benching her against Brazil?  The goalkeeper he put in her place, Briana Scurry, promptly gave up three goals and one own goal to lose to Brazil 4-0.  

Not only does Hope have no bones about CALLING OUT HER OWN COACH ON TV, but she’s HOT and SINGLE and ATHLETIC.

Remember what I said last week about not wanting to get married?

I’m seriously reconsidering it. 

Hope, if you’re looking for a 5'10", handsome, obsessively-motivated drunkard who wants nothing more than to make love to you for 27 straight hours, CONTACT ME.

Of course it goes without saying that the following picks AGAINST THE SPREAD are for RECREATIONAL USE ONLY. The Liver’s picks are to cover the spread, not straight-up winners. Only Britney Spears, Paris Hilton, Lindsay Lohan, Greg Ryan, Kiefer Sutherland, Michael Vick, Bill Beliprick, and Travis Henry’s nine kids and nine mommas would be drunk enough to question the Esteemed Liver's picks. 

Didn’t Kiefer tell the cops that he was in fact CTU agent Jack Bauer and that he had to swallow a virus in order to stop an explosive device from detonating in the greater Los Angeles area?

I wonder if the breathalyzer started making the 24 ticking sound when he blew into it...

Last week’s record: 10-4-2 (That’s more like it)

2007 record against the spread: 20-23-5

Sunday, September 30th

Houston at Atlanta (+3)

And the early candidate for jackass of the year goes to...D’Angelo Hall.

67 yards of penalties on ONE DRIVE. Then he gets into it with Petrino on the sidelines. That might have cost the Falcons their only win of the year. Petrino should have suspended that idiot for the game instead of a half. 

Houston, even without Andre Johnson, nearly upset the Colts. Johnson's status will be a game-time decision.  Look for Schaub to torch his former team and for Falcons owner Arthur Blank to have a nervous breakdown on the sidelines.

Pick: Houston

N.Y. Jets at Buffalo (+3 ½)

I think Buffalo is cursed. Seven players are already on IR, and their season is basically over. They're dead last in offense and in the bottom eight in defense.

The Jets aren’t world beaters, but they should have no problem here.

Pick: N.Y.

Baltimore at Cleveland (+4)

It seems that Baltimore, along with Arizona, is going to play musical QBs for the time being, with McNair starting and Boller coming in for relief.

What was that old saying about starting QBs? If you have two, you have none.

Rotating QBs have NEVER worked either in college or the NFL—and while it may preserve McNair for later in the season, it isn’t a blueprint for consistent winning.

Don’t expect Jamal Lewis to have a revenge game against his former team, as the Ravens have the best run defense in the league.

Besides, I don’t need Cleveland winning any games. Help me out Baltimore.

Pick: Cleveland

St. Louis (+13) at Dallas

This is almost akin to David Lightman hacking into Protovision (aka the W.O.P.R).

It can’t be that simple.

Dallas is the hottest team in the NFC after their dismantling of former Bears QB Rex Grossman and the vaunted Chicago defense. Now they have two trap games before the cheaters—formerly known as the Patriots—come to town for a preview of what we’ll be seeing in Glendale on February 3rd.

The Rams? No Steven Jackson, no Orlando Pace, Marc Bulger has two cracked, ribs and their offense is 29th in the league at 10.7 points a game.

It can’t be that simple...can it?

Maybe Dallas can improve on their NFL-leading 256 penalty yards. I’m counting on you, Flozell.

Pick: Dallas

Chicago at Detroit (+3)

The Brian Griese era finally begins. Unfortunately, his defense is battered. Detroit got embarrassed last week by a motivated player (McNabb wanted to stick it to the Filthy fans). 

This will be a nice matchup of inept offense (Chicago) vs. inept defense (Detroit).  

Pick: Detroit

Oakland (+4) at Miami

Looks like Lane Kiffin pulled a Mike Shanahan last week. Nice to see new coaches learning bush-league tactics. Maybe Shanahan can teach Kiffin’s defensive players how to chop block.

Looks like Daunte Culpepper will be starting this week. It should be interesting to see how he does, as he’s basically auditioning for the rest of his career. Is Trent Green still starting for the Dolphins?  

Pick: Oakland

Green Bay at Minnesota (+1 ½)

Okay, I’ll admit that I never saw the Packers opening at 3-0. Whether or not they can maintain it is another story.

That said, they're playing the Vikings, so it’s looking like the magic will continue for at least another week.

Both teams are excellent on defense (tied for eighth overall in the league), which means points will be at a premium. But Minnesota has Adrian Peterson as its main offensive weapon and NO passing game.

Then again, Brett Favre’s record inside domes is less than stellar, so I can see why this is basically a pick 'em.

Pick: Green Bay

Tampa Bay at Carolina (Off)

Who’d have thought this would be for the NFC South lead?

I still think Tampa Bay is doing this with smoke and mirrors and will show their true colors eventually. Jake Delhomme is questionable and will probably be a game-time decision, which explains the line's being off.  

I’m sure Panthers fans take comfort in knowing that David Carr is waiting in the wings.

Pick: Carolina

Seattle at San Francisco (+2)

This is a crucial game for both NFC West teams, as the winner will take the division lead.

San Francisco is coming off a shelling in Pittsburgh, but they swept the Seahawks last season...which is PRECISELY why this is a big game for Seattle.

Three losses in a row to a divisional opponent is psychological killer, especially in a tight division.

Alex Smith has struggled without Norv Turner; he'll need to get it together in this one.

Pick: San Francisco

Pittsburgh at Arizona (+6)

Pittsburgh looks to be back in the AFC race after a down year.  They could end up running away with the AFC North after many—including me—thought they wouldn’t even be a playoff team.

The Steelers lead the league in scoring defense, giving up a little more than 8.5 points a game.

Arizona is playing musical QBs after Kurt Warner came in for Flower-in-the-Mouth and made him look like the chump he is. Unfortunately, one more hit for Warner and he’ll have flowers on top of him. 

Maybe Flower-in-the-Mouth was a little preoccupied looking for coeds to knock up?

With weapons like Boldin and Fitzgerald, the Cardinals can’t screw around waiting for this CHILD to grow up. Better to take your short term-chances with a proven Super Bowl MVP who has the trust of his teammates and who puts the time in during the week to be ready.

Pick: Arizona

Denver (+10) at Indianapolis

Looks like Jason Elam couldn’t bail the Broncos out last week. This team has problems, not the least of which is the “Duh” face of Jay Cutler.

Would you believe that the Broncos are 29th in the league against the run, allowing 166 yards per game?  I think I hear Joseph Addai salivating.

Pick: Denver

Kansas City (+11 ½) at San Diego

San Diego is in deep trouble. At 1-2, they’ve already lost as many regular season games as they did all last year. Somewhere, Marty Schottenheimer is laughing his ass off.

I love Norv Turner from his Cowboy days, but a head coach this man is NOT. That said, the Bolts couldn’t have asked for a better team to play this week. Kansas City is decent on defense, but 31st in the league on offense.

Pick: San Diego

Philadelphia at N.Y. Giants (+3)

See my sentiments on last week’s Giants/Redskins matchup for how I feel about these two teams.

Nevertheless, the Giants came through for me and exposed the Redskins for what they were...the worst 2-0 team you ever saw next to Denver. If they can do the same thing this week, they’ll do me another favor—I don’t need Filthy getting on too big a roll. 

Little Manning has been playing well...SO FAR. If he can attack the NFL’s 26th-ranked pass defense, the Giants could make it two in a row on the road against divisional opponents—which would put them right back in the hunt.

Pick: N.Y.

Monday, October 1st

New England at Cincinnati (+7)

Anybody see a shootout here?

The Patriots are on a roll on both sides of the ball. The Bengals can put up points with anyone. The problem is they don’t play defense.

You’ve got two of the best QBs in the league (Palmer and Brady), so that should make this one of the few entertaining Monday night games of the year. 

It's sad how Monday night on ESPN has turned into what Sunday night on ESPN used to be. All we need to truly make it a nightmare is Paul Maguire shouting out “Let me tell you something!”  

Pick: Cincinnati