Belmont Stakes 2015 Weather: Post Time, Latest Elmont Conditions for 147th Race

Overnight showers won't derail American Pharoah's chances of winning the Triple Crown at the 2015 Belmont Stakes. The latest weather updates call for a calm after the so-called storm, with rain giving way to a day that winds and clouds will dominate.

Weather.com calls for an overcast day with some rain showers at times, a high of 74 degrees and 10 to 15 mph winds coming from the north. It estimates a 60 percent chance of rain.

For a more detailed view, AccuWeather.com's Mark Leberfinger believes it will be comfortable running for the horses at Elmont. He quotes AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski: "It will probably be in the low to mid-70s at post time."

Significantly, Leberfinger notes how American Pharoah secured the first two parts of the Triple Crown on contrasting tracks. He stated how the Preakness was won on a "sloppy" track while the horse took advantage of "dry" conditions to win in Kentucky.

Preview

While most of the focus is on American Pharoah and the bid for history, ESPN.com's Dana O'Neil offers a particularly intriguing take. She focuses less on the closest contenders to Pharoah's expected dominance and instead highlights a different challenge.

O'Neil states that overcoming the notoriously tough Belmont Park track is Pharoah's biggest concern. The numbers certainly don't favour the horse, with O'Neil referencing 19 failed attempts to secure a Triple Crown win at Belmont.

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She emphasises the 1 ½-mile distance as the biggest pitfall jockeys face. Knowing how to pace the distance is the key. Those who get the balance between a steady early pace and a late surge wrong usually find themselves crossing the finishing post later than they expect.

Another chapter of history also goes against Pharoah's chances. CBS Sports' Sean Wagner-McGough detailed how fresher horses have had a decisive advantage over favoured ones in recent years: "The last nine winners at Belmont have skipped either the first or second leg of the Triple Crown."

One intriguing outsider who fits that bill is Madefromlucky. Joe Drape of the New York Times believes the Todd Pletcher-trained horse is a good fit for the course: "He fits the profile of past Belmont winners: High cruising speed, a wily New York-based jockey and nearly a month off since his last race."

But the more obvious contenders are Frosted and Materiality. Odds Shark's Jack Randall puts the latest line for Frosted at 11-2 while Materiality stands at 13-2.

Melissa Hoppert of the New York Times believes the presence of jockey John Velazquez will boost the latter. He's twice taken the winner's purse at Belmont, and few jockeys in the field know how to navigate the arduous track as well as the 43-year-old.

Ultimately, though, this race is all about Pharoah's attempt to become the first Triple Crown winner in nearly four decades. That's more than a tall order, but B/R analyst Jessica Paquette believes rumours the horse has added weight, despite a recent hectic schedule, bode well for strength and stamina at Belmont:

Like many, though, Paquette believes an outsider will upset yet another bid for history. Her pick of Mubtaahij is a smart one considering how well a horse that can keep something in reserve for a strong finish might act on a longer course.

Yet Pharoah's ability to win on tracks of all kinds shouldn't be underestimated. It won't make a difference to this horse if the track shows more of the effects of the overnight showers or instead favours the dry day come post time.

All betting lines via Odds Shark as of Friday, June 5.