Belmont Stakes 2015 Horses: Race-Day Overview for Favorites and Entire Field
Aside from the obvious incentive of Triple Crown glory, one of the most enamouring traits of the Belmont Stakes is its propensity for shocks.
So often dominant horses have gone to the New York venue expected to romp to victory, but on many occasions their hopes of glory have been scuppered by less illustrious names. Therefore, as we weigh up the chances of American Pharoah becoming the first Triple Crown winner since 1978, it’s important to give some coverage to all the contenders.
Here’s a full rundown of the odds on each horse to take victory and a closer look at the chances they have of coming out on top at Belmont.
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| 1 | Mubtaahij | Mike De Kock | Irad Ortiz Jr. | 14-1 |
| 2 | Tale of Verve | Dallas Stewart | Gary Stevens | 20-1 |
| 3 | Madefromlucky | Todd Pletcher | Javier Castellano | 14-1 |
| 4 | Frammento | Nick Zito | Mike Smith | 40-1 |
| 5 | American Pharoah | Bob Baffert | Victor Espinoza | 2-3 |
| 6 | Frosted | Kiaran McLaughlin | Joel Rosario | 6-1 |
| 7 | Keen Ice | Dale Romans | Kent Desormeaux | 25-1 |
| 8 | Materiality | Todd Pletcher | John Velazquez | 13-2 |
Odds courtesy of OddsShark.com. Figures accurate as of 5:30 p.m. (BST) June 5.
American Pharoah
After winning the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness Stakes, American Pharoah has a chance to create history at Belmont with a winning performance and is the big favorite to do so.
The Bob Baffert-trained colt was drawn in Post 5, and as we can see here courtesy of the event’s official Twitter feed, it was a result the trainer and the horse’s owners were very pleased with:
The differing styles with which this stunning colt won at Churchill Downs and Pimlico is a measure of his quality. With Victor Espinoza on board, American Pharoah is clearly capable of leading from the front or picking his run to the finish and taking a race win; those adaptable qualities will stand him in excellent stead here.
But history is against this horse. Since Affirmed won all three in 1978, 13 horses have completed a Kentucky-Preakness double before faltering in the final leg. As such, it’s going to take an almighty effort for Pharoah to win here.
Frosted
To the right of the favorite in the post positions will be Frosted. He’s shown decent form so far this year with a fourth-place finish in Kentucky, and aboard him at Belmont will be Joel Rosario, who picked up a win on Tonalist in this race 12 months ago.
He’s been in fine form this year and, having skipped Preakness, will be much sharper than American Pharoah. As noted by Jay Privman of Daily Racing Form, that could give Frosted the edge:
One facet he will have to conquer is a poor start. Getting away slowly really cost Frosted at Churchill Downs, meaning a sharp finish only saw him into fourth place. But the longer distance at Belmont will give him more time to recover should he stumble out of the gate, meaning he should be in the hunt for victory.
Materiality
On the outside will be Todd Pletcher’s Materiality. This is a horse that possesses frightening natural speed but has yet to make good on his undeniable potential.
In the Derby, Materiality was crowded out early, and while he was a long way back from American Pharoah in the final stages, he actually did well to finish sixth. But in Post 8 and with astute jockey John Velazquez aboard, this duo will have the luxury of staying out of trouble and picking their break when needed.
From that point on, he needs to battle hard to stay in contention before his instinctive pace comes to the fore. It’s something this horse did to win the Grade 1 Florida Derby back in March, as we can see here:
He also skipped Preakness, and Pletcher will have had time to get him ready for the final Triple Crown race of the campaign. Expect him to be a strong competitor in the latter stages of this one.
Other Competitors
Mubtaahij has been handed the nightmare draw along the rail, and although historically it’s not been quite as detrimental a spot as Preakness and Kentucky, very few have recovered from that spot to take victory. Tale of Verve was the horse closest to American Pharoah in Preakness, and he could represent decent value from Post 2.
Madefromlucky is another from the Pletcher stable and has picked up a win at Belmont Park already this year in the Grade 2 Peter Pan. Frammento and Keen Ice have picked up favorable draws, but given the top horses in this field are a class above, they remain big outsiders to pick up victories.
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