Belmont Stakes 2015 Odds: Post Time, Vegas Betting Lines, Picks and Predictions
Heading down the final turn before Saturday's 2015 Belmont Stakes, anticipation is at a fever pitch as one horse chases a Triple Crown, while seven others attempt to spoil the party.
What stands between American Pharoah and that bit of history has eluded so many who have tried since Affirmed last completed the trifecta in 1978—13 to be exact. That run of history and the difficult nature of the Belmont Stakes have tempered expectations for AP to win Saturday and grow his legacy, but only just.
So will an unfortunate run of history continue Saturday, or will American Pharoah reign supreme and become the horse to break the 37-year drought? And who else might follow with win-place-show finishes?
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Let's take a look below.
2015 Belmont Stakes
Date: Saturday, June 6
TV Time: 4:30 to 7 p.m. ET
Post Time: 6:50 p.m. ET
TV: NBC
Live Stream: NBC Sports Live Extra
| 1 | Mubtaahij | Mike De Kock | Irad Ortiz Jr. | 14-1 |
| 2 | Tale of Verve | Dallas Stewart | Gary Stevens | 20-1 |
| 3 | Madefromlucky | Todd Pletcher | Javier Castellano | 16-1 |
| 4 | Frammento | Nick Zito | Mike Smith | 40-1 |
| 5 | American Pharoah | Bob Baffert | Victor Espinoza | 2-3 |
| 6 | Frosted | Kiaran McLaughlin | Joel Rosario | 6-1 |
| 7 | Keen Ice | Dale Romans | Kent Desormeaux | 25-1 |
| 8 | Materiality | Todd Pletcher | John Velazquez | 13-2 |
Odds courtesy of Odds Shark.
Predictions
Win: American Pharoah
No one has completed the feat in nearly four decades, and that's for a reason. But American Pharoah looks poised to finally end the wait and achieve horse racing's first Triple Crown in quite some time.
He faces the treacherous task of having to run in his third race in five weeks—something none of the other contenders are being asked to do. But after he ran comfortably at the Kentucky Derby and Preakness, that won't have as much of an impact as it seems.
What truly makes it an impossible feat is the 1 ½-mile track, which only accentuates a horse's fatigue levels down the stretch. But AP has breezed past the field down the stretch, and trainer Bob Baffert remains confident in his horse, per Daily Racing Form's Jay Privman:
Post positions aren't crucial in such a long race, but American Pharoah and jockey Victor Espinoza should feel comfortable navigating from the No. 5 post. It will allow him to join the front pack at the beginning and keep him near the leaders for that inevitable late surge.
If fresher horses catch up to AP and end his Triple Crown hopes, it will be because the favorite didn't perform at the level that he has in previous races. If he runs like we're accustomed to, he won't lose.
Place: Materiality
Trainer Todd Pletcher has higher aspirations for his hometown Belmont Stakes than a second-place finish, but that's the best Materiality can do if American Pharoah does his thing.
With that said, Materiality's showing at the Kentucky Derby suggests he'll be a force to be reckoned with down the stretch. He started poorly and struggled to emerge but got it going down the final stretch and bolted to a sixth-place finish.
Pletcher saw encouraging signs in that race to build on at the Belmont, per the Courier-Journal's Jennie Rees: "He put himself in a position where he'd never been before. He closed late. That was encouraging, it gives us optimism that the mile-and-a-half will be in his range."
Starting from the No. 8 post will allow Materiality more open space from the get-go to work with. A change on the saddle to John Velazquez could help to prevent the horse from starting slow like at Churchill Downs.
The extra distance covered from the outside spot will eventually weigh in and slow down Materiality, but not enough to deny him a podium finish.
Show: Frosted
All it might take for Frosted to knock off American Pharoah and end the sport's Triple Crown hopes is a fast start.
Needless to say, the Kiaran McLaughlin-trained horse didn't get that at Churchill Downs just over a month ago. He stumbled out of the gates and fell near the back of the pack, only to finish with an incredible head of steam and come a hair short of Dortmund's third-place finish.
Had that not happened, it's not far-fetched to say that Frosted—not Firing Line—would have been pushing American Pharoah down that final stretch. Against a fatigued AP on a track that is 1.5 furlongs longer, avoiding that treacherous start could be all that Frosted needs to usurp the favorite and steal the Belmont Stakes.
Frosted will start outside of American Pharoah in the No. 6 post but won't be able to stay near the leaders once again. He'll turn it on to rival AP and Materiality down the stretch, but it will once again be too little, too late.
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