Belmont Stakes 2015 Contenders: Analyzing American Pharoah and More Favorites
Triple Crown hopeful American Pharoah will continue to draw the bulk of attention heading into the 2015 Belmont Stakes, but he'll be challenged by some strong and well-rested contenders.
While Pharoah has previously defeated every horse expected to participate in the Belmont Stakes at some point this year, the colt is about to run his third race in a matter of five weeks. That will be a severe disadvantage in the lengthy 1 ½-mile race—especially considering Tale of Verve is the only other horse in the field that participated in the Preakness Stakes.
Still, there's plenty of reason to like Pharoah at Belmont Park. He put together a pair of sparkling performances in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes, overcoming strong fields and unfavorable starting positions to inch closer to the coveted Triple Crown. But does he have enough left in the tank to win yet again?
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As we anxiously await the answer to that question, let's take a look at the updated odds for the Belmont Stakes and analyze a few of the race's favorites.
Belmont Stakes Odds
| 1 | Mubtaahij | 14-1 | Irad Ortiz Jr. |
| 2 | Tale of Verve | 20-1 | Gary Stevens |
| 3 | Madefromlucky | 14-1 | Javier Castellano |
| 4 | Frammento | 40-1 | Mike Smith |
| 5 | American Pharoah | 5-7 | Victor Espinoza |
| 6 | Frosted | 6-1 | Joel Rosario |
| 7 | Keen Ice | 25-1 | Kent Desormeaux |
| 8 | Materiality | 13-2 | John R. Velazquez |
All Belmont Stakes odds courtesy of Odds Shark.
Analyzing Top Contenders
American Pharoah
By now, you're probably well aware of American Pharoah's talent. The colt was impressive in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes, winning both races due to a combination of his great acceleration, stamina and closing ability.
At Churchill Downs, Pharoah drew the No. 18 position—he would start in the No. 16 gate due to scratches—and was forced to make up plenty of additional ground early in the race. After accelerating to move into a spot just behind the leaders, Pharoah ran three wide off the rail for the majority of the race in an effort to put himself in a position to make a late run.
Despite running the extra distance and burning energy in the onset of the race, Pharoah was still able to accelerate to the front of the pack and went on to take the Kentucky Derby over a hard-charging Firing Line. Take a look back at the race in its entirety:
Pharoah was tasked with a different obstacle in the Preakness Stakes. He started from the ominous No. 1 gate—a post position that had previously yielded just one winner since 1961—and had to accelerate quickly to avoid getting pinned against the rail and stuck behind traffic. He accelerated through the muddy track and into the lead position before the first turn.
While burning that energy early in the race wasn't optimal, Pharoah still maintained enough stamina to hold onto the lead throughout the race and pull away down the final stretch to win by a full seven lengths. Here's a look back at his brilliant performance:
The colt's fortunes appear to have changed for the better at Belmont Park. He drew the favorable No. 5 gate—a starting position that has produced 13 winners over the years—and he'll be in a small field of eight contenders. That's important considering no Triple Crown winner has ever defeated more than seven horses in the Belmont Stakes.
With all of that information in mind, there's a strong chance we could see the 37-year Triple Crown drought come to an end in the near future.
Frosted
If any horse in this year's Belmont Stakes field has the talent to spoil Pharoah's Triple Crown aspirations, it's Frosted. This colt's 2015 season has been a roller-coaster ride, as he's notched one win (Wood Memorial), one runner-up finish and two fourth-place showings. His fourth-place finish in the Kentucky Derby may not have been a desired result, but it did display his strengths.
Frosted isn't a horse known to break well from the gate—he even fell to the rear of the small field in his Wood Memorial victory. That was evident in the Kentucky Derby, as his sluggish start forced him well off the pace, and he spent the majority of the race in the rear of the field as a result.
Then, with roughly one-half mile remaining, Frosted kicked it into high gear, rallying past the majority of the field and bursting down the final stretch to finish in fourth place. That late run was incredibly impressive, and we could speculate that if he was in a better position early in the race, he would have been a major factor in the end.
The big takeaways from Frosted's Kentucky Derby showing were his fantastic stamina and closing speed. While both Pharoah and Firing Line were impressive down the final stretch at Churchill Downs, Frosted may have been the best closer in the field. Those attributes will serve the colt well at Belmont Park, as the Triple Crown's final race will provide additional distance and a better opportunity for Frosted to make up ground.
If Frosted can find a way to get off to a better start, he'll have a strong chance of upsetting Pharoah in the Belmont Stakes. After all, he's well-rested after skipping the Preakness, and he'll have plenty of options to navigate the track at Belmont in such a small field of contenders.
Materiality
Materiality enters the Belmont Stakes as the third favorite. This Todd Pletcher-trained colt didn't fare well in the Kentucky Derby, getting caught in traffic early and losing momentum. He fell well off the pace but did recover in the end to finish in sixth place.
Pletcher spoke of the colt's Derby run and expectations for Belmont during an interview with Dan Wolken of USA Today: "With Materiality, if you look at his first three races he can be close to the pace. He missed the break at Churchill and found himself in a position he's never been in. I like being outside of American Pharoah. We're going to go into the first turn trying to make sure there's an honest pace."
Materiality does have a big win in the Florida Derby under his belt, but his finishing time of 1:52.30 was hardly impressive in the 1 ⅛-mile race. Still, he did get off to a good start in the race and was able to hold his position within the lead pack before pulling away in the end to win by 1 ½ lengths over Upstart. His time wasn't good, but his finish was.
With a good deal of stamina at his disposal, Materiality may have what it takes to maintain his pace in the longer Belmont Stakes. Pletcher made a strategic decision to help the colt's chances, holding him out of the Preakness and sending him directly to Belmont Park to train for the third leg of the Triple Crown.
After plenty of rest since the May 2 Kentucky Derby, and with a great deal of familiarity at Belmont Park, Materiality can't be counted out on June 6.
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