French Open 2015 Women's Final: Safarova vs. Williams Preview and Prediction
Serena Williams will try to win her 20th Grand Slam. Lucie Safarova is playing in her first. On Saturday, one of these ladies will reach a monumental milestone at the French Open. The odds, history and mastery are in Williams' favor.
Familiar foes Williams and Safarova have double-digit appearances at Roland Garros. Williams, who missed 2000, 2005, 2006 and 2011, is playing in her 14th French Open. Safarova is in her 11th run at Roland Garros.
Both survived hard-fought semifinals. Williams, No. 1, defeated Timea Bacsinszky 4-6, 6-3, 6-0. Safarova, No. 13, defeated Ana Ivanovic 7-5, 7-5.
After her semifinal win, Safarova told BBC Sport that it's just starting to sink in. "It is a dream come true. I cannot believe it."
Williams, 19-4 in Slam finals, is known as the ultimate closer. Safarova, 42-39 in Slams, has been known to let nerves get the best of her.
But nothing about this French Open has been straightforward. Saturday is a new day. These ladies have earned a chance to write the finish in their favor.
Who Has the Historic Edge?
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Williams has a 10-0 record against Safarova. However, the two have never met at a Grand Slam.
Safarova came close to beating Williams earlier this year at the Hopman Cup. Williams had to win a third-set tiebreaker to close that match out. They have met twice on clay, at the 2012 and 2013 Family Circle Cup. Both times Williams beat Safarova in straight sets.
How Has Safarova Looked so Far?
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If someone predicted a left-handed, ponytail-wearing Czech would wind up in the French Open final, No. 4 Petra Kvitova would have been the first player who came to mind. But it's her friend and compatriot Safarova vying for a first Slam title.
In her semifinal match, Safarova saved two break points to keep Ivanovic from taking a 5-1 lead. Down 5-2, Safarova mounted her comeback. Using her big lefty forehand, Safarova kept the ball deep and forced Ivanovic into errors.
By the time Safarova knotted the match at 5-5, Ivanovic had begun doubting herself. Safarova kept mounting the pressure and eventually won five straight games to take the first set 7-5. She went on to win 7-5, 7-5.
Against Sharapova, Safarova kept the the defending champion from pulling off another epic comeback. The Czech withstood the Russian's 34 winners and overcame her usual case of nerves.
Safarova has won more than 70 percent of her first serves, per the Roland Garros website. Solid serving is one of the reasons she's yet to drop a set.
How Has Williams Looked so Far?
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Williams entered the French Open already suffering from an elbow injury that forced her to withdraw in Rome. She picked up a bad cold and has looked lethargic at times in most of her matches.
In the semifinals, Williams had to fight illness and a stubborn Bacsinszky, who came out swinging and unafraid of the 19-time Slam champion. The Swiss broke Williams in the early going to take a 3-2 lead. Bacsinszky remained calm and steady and took the first set 6-4.
Bacsinszky broke Williams again in the second set. However, Williams broke right back to even the score at 3-3. After holding her serve, Williams broke Bacsinszky again to take a 5-3 lead. She then threw down huge serves to close out the set 6-3.
Rejuvenated, Williams closed out the match, 6-0. It was the fourth time this tournament Williams came back after dropping the first set.
It's been a grueling run for Williams, who also waged comebacks against Victoria Azarenka in the third round and Sloane Stephens in the fourth round. She relied on fight when her game broke down.
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The Biggest X-Factors
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Williams' health and Safarova's mindset are among the biggest X-factors in this match.
Williams has been suffering through illness and an elbow injury. Respiratory problems have plagued Williams this season. She withdrew from Dubai and cut short her Fed Cup appearance in Argentina due to an upper respiratory illness. She reportedly fell ill during the Australian Open, where she endured coughing fits.
Still, Williams has proved her championship pedigree by soldiering through illness to win big matches. Safarova, on the other hand, has a history of mental missteps on the big stage. In Madrid, she led a tiebreaker 5-2 in the second set before Svetlana Kuznetsova came back, forced the deciding set and won.
If Safarova has any doubts, expect Williams to expose them.
Safarova Will Win If...
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En route to the final, Safarova knocked off two former French Open champions. To claim the title, she'll have to knock off a third.
Safarova has to use her big lefty serve out wide to keep Williams off balance. Anything that keeps Williams guessing and out of her comfort zone helps Safarova.
The Czech must land a high percentage of her first serves. It's crucial that she avoids the Sara Errani treatment, with Williams using the second serve as batting practice.
Safarova also must stay in the moment and avoid getting rattled by Williams' war cries of "C'mon." Safarova has weapons that can hurt Williams and she must use them, especially when Williams leaves an opening.
A subpar Williams and an opponent on fire is often the combo that knocks out the champ.
Williams Will Win If...
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Williams has a Grand Slam finals winning percentage of nearly 83 percent. When she gets close to the finish line, it's like she can smell the trophy.
She's gunning for her 20th, which would put her within two Slams of Steffi Graf's 22, the most in the Open era. It also keeps her on pace to win her first calendar-year Grand Slam.
She's felt the weight of history before. However, has she ever been asked to hoist a trophy while feeling so weak physically?
If Williams gets enough rest and brings her A game, there's nothing Safarova can do.
Prediction
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Safarova is playing with newfound confidence. She's reaching heights in her career she never has before. Unfortunately for Safarova, Williams is trying to grab hold of history too. And the person standing between Williams and a Grand Slam trophy usually winds up on the losing side.
A Safarova win would be an epic upset and a nice story. It would be the tale of an unlikely underdog overcoming the reigning queen of tennis and one of the greatest of all time.
If that sounds like a fairy tale, that's because it probably is. Williams has fought a cold and had to beat back a hand-waving Azarenka, resurgent Stephens and inspired Bacsinszky for this chance to win a third French Open and 20th Slam.
Yes she's ill, but with so much on the line, it's hard to imagine Williams, even if dragging an IV onto the court, losing to Safarova for the first time—and in a Slam final.
Au revoir, Safarova. Williams wins in straight sets.
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