Belmont Stakes 2015 Horses: Field Odds, Favorites After Post-Positions Draw
The post-positions draw for the 2015 Belmont Stakes took place Wednesday afternoon, and in its aftermath, we have a better idea of what it will take for each horse to emerge victorious in the third jewel of the Triple Crown.
With a small field of just eight horses, no position is detrimental to a contender's chances; however, historically speaking, the interior posts have produced far more winners. Gate No. 1 tops the list with a total of 23 while Nos. 3 and 5 have each produced 13. Conversely, the No. 8 post has only yielded five winning horses.
It's pretty simple to determine why the interior gates have produced more winners in previous years. The Belmont Stakes is the longest of the Triple Crown races at 1 ½ miles. More often than not, none of the contenders entering the event have ever participated in a race of that distance, and if a horse is forced to run well off the rail, endurance quickly becomes an issue.
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With that in mind, here's a look at the post positions and updated odds for this year's contenders, followed by a look at the top favorites.
Belmont Stakes Post Positions and Odds
| 1 | Mubtaahij | 14-1 |
| 2 | Tale of Verve | 20-1 |
| 3 | Madefromlucky | 16-1 |
| 4 | Frammento | 40-1 |
| 5 | American Pharoah | 2-3 |
| 6 | Frosted | 6-1 |
| 7 | Keen Ice | 25-1 |
| 8 | Materiality | 13-2 |
All Belmont Stakes odds provided by Odds Shark.
Top Favorites
American Pharoah
After a couple of brutal post draws, American Pharoah's luck finally turned.
The colt was unfortunate in both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes, drawing unfavorable starting positions on each occasion. At Churchill Downs, he was forced to make up plenty of additional ground from the outside in a jam-packed race. At Pimlico, he started from the dreaded No. 1 gate—a position that had previously yielded just one winner since 1961.
Each time, Pharoah overcame his obstacles and emerged victorious. In the Kentucky Derby, he ran three wide off the rail for the majority of the race but still had enough stamina to outlast a charging Firing Line down the final stretch. In the Preakness, he exerted plenty of energy early in the race, bursting to the front of the pack to avoid getting caught in traffic. He still managed a brilliant late run to win by seven lengths.
Now, in the Belmont Stakes, Pharoah starts from the No. 5 gate—a position that has some historical significance. The gate produced 13 winners, and that includes 1977 Triple Crown winner Seattle Slew.
This marks the third time jockey Victor Espinoza will attempt to claim a Triple Crown, and he shared his thoughts on the matter following the post draw during an interview with Dan Wolken of USA Today, "I'm very happy with the draw. I'm feeling lucky this year. Third time's the charm."
Frosted
Frosted will break alongside Pharoah from the No. 6 gate. The post has produced seven winners over the years, and this colt will need to buck his trend of sluggish starts to compete with the race's favorite.
In the Kentucky Derby, Frosted showed both his greatest strength and biggest weakness. He didn't get out of the gate quickly, falling well off the pace and running the bulk of the race from the rear. However, with a half-mile remaining, he turned on the jets, and his phenomenal closing ability allowed him to bust past most of the traffic to finish in fourth place.
It can be argued that Frosted may be the best closer in the Belmont Stakes; however, that won't matter if he can't put himself in position to make a run down the final stretch. Starting alongside Pharoah—a fantastic starter—may help push Frosted into a better position early in the race.
Following the Kentucky Derby, Frosted skipped the Preakness Stakes to rest up for the Belmont. If his fresh legs allow him to get into a solid position early and he remains near the lead pack through the thick of the race, he'll certainly challenge Pharoah in the end.
Materiality
Materiality has the advantage of starting in few career races—the Belmont Stakes will be just his fifth appearance. He won his first three races this year, including the Florida Derby, but his finishing time of 1:52.30 in the 1 ⅛-mile race wasn't overly impressive.
The colt went on to participate in the Kentucky Derby and didn't fare as well as trainer Todd Pletcher had hoped, finishing sixth. Materiality wasn't able to get to the front early and was caught up in heavy traffic. He rallied nicely over the back half of the race but still finished well off Pharoah's pace.
After skipping the Preakness Stakes, Materiality received a nice break before Belmont. He'll need it, as the colt drew the No. 8 gate, which happens to be this year's far outside position and a spot that has previously yielded just five winners.
Here's what Pletcher had to say about his expectations for the colt during an interview with Wolken: "With Materiality, if you look at his first three races he can be close to the pace. He missed the break at Churchill and found himself in a position he's never been in. I like being outside of American Pharoah. We're going to go into the first turn trying to make sure there's an honest pace."
Materiality will be treading a fine line between getting close enough to the pace out of the No. 8 gate to contend and using too much energy early while risking maintaining enough stamina to finish strong.
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