Triple Crown 2015: Breaking Down Odds for American Pharoah's Top Challengers

The Belmont Stakes is a grueling 1 1/2-mile test that will push the best three-year-old horses to the limit.

American Pharoah is hoping the race will provide his crowning glory and give him the final jewel of the Triple Crown. Twelve other horses have found themselves in a similar position since Affirmed won the Triple Crown in 1978, and all of them have failed.

American Pharoah, the 3-5 favorite according to Vegas Insider, appears to have an excellent chance of breaking the Triple Crown dry spell. He was impressive in winning the Kentucky Derby with a powerful stretch run and even more impressive by winning the Preakness in the rain by seven lengths.

American Pharoah is peaking, and that is a good sign for a horse with championship aspirations.

Post Position	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Odds
1	Mubtaahij	Irad Ortiz	Mike de Kock	10-1
2	Tale of Verve	Gary Stevens	Dallas Stewart	15-1
3	Madefromlucky	Javier Castellano	Todd Pletcher	12-1
4	Frammento	Mike Smith	Nick Zito	30-1
5	American Pharoah	Victor Espinoza	Bob Baffert	3-5
6	Frosted	Joel Rosario	Kiaran McLaughlin	5-1
7	Keen Ice	Kent Desormeaux	Dale Romans	20-1
8	Materiality	John Velazquez	Todd Pletcher	6-1

But the Belmont Stakes will be anything but easy, even if there are only seven other horses in the field. Two of those challengers, Frosted and Materiality, would appear to have excellent chances of pushing American Pharoah to the limit and possibly breaking the hearts of his supporters by stealing the race.

Frosted (5-1) and Materiality (6-1) are well-rested, and that's a huge factor in the demanding Triple Crown season. The last nine Belmont Stakes winners have skipped the Preakness and come into the New York race fully freshened.

Additionally, they are both strong horses who may not have hit the board in the Kentucky Derby but have legitimate credentials that make them threats in this race.

Frosted had a rough trip in the Kentucky Derby because he got off to a slow start and was near the back of the 18-horse field. However, when jockey Joel Rosario asked him to run, he did it in impressive fashion as he rallied around the outside of the field and finished fourth. 

Frosted has the pedigree to handle the Belmont Stakes distance. He is sired by Tapit, who was the sire to last year's winner, Tonalist.

Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin has confidence that Frosted will run well Saturday, but he realizes that nothing is guaranteed. 

“You are never sure about 12 furlongs over the dirt in America,” McLaughlin told Geoffrey Riddle of the National. “The way he closed in the Derby, he was the only horse running late, so that gives us confidence."

Jamie Rhodes-USA TODAY Sports

Materiality proved himself earlier in the year with a win in the Florida Derby, but he did not run well in the Kentucky Derby. Trainer Todd Pletcher has shown that he can get his horses prepared for the Belmont Stakes as eight of his horses have finished in the top three of the race since 2006.

Pletcher also has prepared long shot Madefromlucky (12-1) to run in the Belmont, and he has had some impressive moments this year. He won the Peter Pan Stakes at Belmont Park and has two other victories in 2015. Madefromlucky does not have explosive speed, but he should pick up the pace at the halfway point and start passing horses if he is on top of his game.

Mubtaahij (10-1) is the other horse in the field that deserves some consideration. He is trained by Mike de Kock, who has proved he knows how to prepare horses for big races. Mubtaahij won the UAE Derby earlier in the year, but when he was shipped to Churchill Downs, he ran poorly in the Kentucky Derby and did not have an excuse. Perhaps he will take to the New York track a bit better.

Tale of Verve (15-1), Frammento (30-1) and Keen Ice (20-1) are all outsiders who appear to be outmatched. Tale of Verve has shown he can run in the rain on a sloppy track, but he appears to be in over his head as long as the weather is good.