Belmont Stakes Field 2015: Post Positions, Odds and Predictions for All Horses
American Pharoah won't be forced to take off from the inside post in the Belmont Stakes.
Instead, the Triple Crown hopeful drew the No. 5 position, according to Dan Wolken of the USA Today, and that should allow the Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner to take a favorable slot after leaving the gate Saturday.
American Pharoah may very well go to the lead or at least stay close to it. He used that tactic in both of the previous classics. It proved successful both times, and trainer Bob Baffert may use it again.
.jpg?w=256 "Colts Jaguars Football")
However, in the Preakness, he was nearly compelled to go for the lead because of the tight turns at Pimlico Race Course and the downpour that hit the Baltimore track minutes before the race. While it's not a hard and fast rule, it's easier for front-runners to win in the slop than it is for come-from-behind horses.
American Pharoah is the odds-on 3-5 favorite (according to Vegas Insider) to win the Belmont Stakes and become the sport's first Triple Crown winner since Affirmed accomplished the feat in 1978.
American Pharoah arrived in New York on Tuesday, and Baffert said his horse likes the Belmont Park surroundings, according to Jonathan Lintner of the Courier-Journal:
"He loves it here. These stalls are so nice and big. He likes it here. He's in the Big Apple now. You know what? Things can change overnight, but the way he feels, the way he's trained, right now everything is going really smoothly. I like what I see.
"
| Post Postion | Horse | Jockey | Odds | Predicted Finish | Skinny |
| 5 | American Pharoah | Victor Espinoza | 3-5 | 1st | Best horse gets off to good start and holds off field |
| 6 | Frosted | Joel Rosario | 5-1 | 2nd | Will make his run, but not quite good enough |
| 3 | Madefromlucky | Javier Castellano | 12-1 | 3rd | Solid distance pedigree gives him a shot |
| 8 | Materiality | John Velasquez | 6-1 | 4th | May not fire against these |
| 2 | Tale of Verve | Gary Stevens | 15-1 | 5th | Runs better on an off track |
| 1 | Mubtaahij | Irad Ortiz | 10-1 | 6th | Derby effort was dull |
| 7 | Keen Ice | Kent Desormeaux | 20-1 | 7th | Could be a sleeper for long shot players, but in over his head |
| 4 | Frammento | Mike Smith | 30-1 | 8th | Trainer Zito known for work with long shots, but in too tough |
The field in the Belmont Stakes consists of eight horses, and only two of American Pharoah's challengers are listed at odds of less than 10-1.
Frosted (5-1) and Materiality (6-1) would appear to have the best chance of beating Baffert's horse. Frosted will start out of the No. 6 post and will have a chance to examine his rival closely as he leaves the gate. American Pharoah figures to get out more quickly than Frosted, but if jockey Joel Rosario can keep the favorite within three or four lengths, he could have an excellent chance to rally and at least get close to him.
Rosario liked Frosted's come-from-behind effort in the Derby, in which he battled from the back of the pack to finish fourth. "He tried really hard and finished strong," Rosario told media members after the race.
Materiality won the Florida Derby earlier in the year, but he did not have his best race in the Kentucky Derby. Trainer Todd Pletcher chose to keep him out of the Preakness, and he should be quite fresh on Saturday for the 1 ½-mile race. Jockey John Velasquez will take Materiality from the No. 8 post, and this horse has the pedigree to go the distance.
Mubtaahij was well thought of prior to the Kentucky Derby because he won the UAE Derby, but he was dull at Churchill Downs, and he did not have an excuse. Starting from the inside post may allow jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. to get off to a quick start, but that may not be enough to keep him in the race.
Of the true long shots in the race, Madefromlucky (12-1) may have the best chance of either threatening American Pharoah or getting on the board.
Madefromlucky is another Pletcher-trained three-year-old, and he is a grinding horse who will likely start his run at the ¾-mile mark and try to pass opponents in the stretch. Pletcher has had success throughout his career at the Belmont Stakes, so both of his entries must be respected.
.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
