Belmont Stakes 2015 Contenders: Race-Day Picks for Top Horses and Jockeys
The 2015 Belmont Stakes will have American Pharoah starting from the fifth post in Saturday's eight-horse field, hoping to become just the 12th Triple Crown champion in history at Belmont Park in Elmont, New York.
Wednesday's morning-line odds installed American Pharoah as a clear 3-5 favorite, far and away the oddsmakers' pick to win. Frosted is the closest competition at 5-1, followed by Materiality at 6-1.
Although the field is relatively small, American Pharoah will be competing against mostly fresh horses who didn't run in the Preakness, save for Pimlico runner-up Tale of Verve.
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Below are the complete post positions and a list of jockeys and trainers involved in the 147th Belmont Stakes, accompanied by predictions as to who will finish in the money:
| 1 | Mubtaahij | Irad Ortiz Jr. | Mike de Kock | 10-1 |
| 2 | Tale of Verve | Gary Stevens | Dallas Stewart | 15-1 |
| 3 | Madefromlucky | Javier Castellano | Todd Pletcher | 12-1 |
| 4 | Frammento | Mike Smith | Nick Zito | 30-1 |
| 5 | American Pharoah | Victor Espinoza | Bob Baffert | 3-5 |
| 6 | Frosted | Joel Rosario | Kiaran McLaughlin | 5-1 |
| 7 | Keen Ice | Kent Desormeaux | Dale Romans | 20-1 |
| 8 | Materiality | John Velazquez | Todd Pletcher | 6-1 |
2015 Belmont Stakes Picks
Win: American Pharoah
The competition won't be enough to fend off the Triple Crown hopeful. American Pharoah had just two weeks of rest between a tough test at the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness, where he blew away the field by seven lengths.
That doesn't mean it'll be a cakewalk, of course. ESPN Stats & Info highlights the significant history going against American Pharoah:
No horse, even at this elite level of racing, is accustomed to a 1 ½-mile trip, which is the test American Pharoah and the rest of the Belmont Stakes entrants face. American Pharoah has the benefit of strong connections and being the clearly superior athlete, though.
Owner Ahmed Zayat weighed in on American Pharoah's chances of winning after Wednesday's post-position reveal, per USA Today's Dan Wolken:
"It's a riders' race. I'm confident in the ability of American Pharoah because the horse is giving me that confidence. I'm not arrogant about it. What makes him special is the way he moves. He's the best moving horse I've ever seen and does everything so easy. I think his stride and the way he's going to carry himself will allow him to get any kind of distance.
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Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert has little left to accomplish, save for achieving the Triple Crown. He's teamed with current jockey Victor Espinoza in the past, only to fall short in the 2002 Belmont Stakes with War Emblem.
Espinoza will have learned from last year's trip in Belmont Park aboard California Chrome, another Triple Crown threat who finished just outside the money in fourth. With the valuable experience under his belt and improved results in two prior Triple Crown bids, Espinoza is ready to get the job done this time around.
Place: Materiality
The best chance trainer Todd Pletcher has among his two entries to play spoiler to American Pharoah comes in the form of Materiality, who didn't have his best day at the Kentucky Derby yet still finished sixth.
That may not sound too impressive, but when bearing in mind how the Run for the Roses started for Materiality in Louisville, it's quite an achievement. Churchill Downs announcer Travis Stone captured an image of where Materiality stood before he turned on the jets down the final stretch:
NYRA handicapper Nick Tammaro believes starting furthest from the rail will benefit Materiality greatly:
Pletcher seems to concur with that sentiment and discussed the tactics he plans to hatch with his top contender, per Wolken:
"With Materiality, if you look at his first three races he can be close to the pace. He missed the break at Churchill and found himself in a position he's never been in. I like being outside of American Pharoah. We're going to go into the first turn trying to make sure there's an honest pace.
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Having a Hall of Fame jockey in John Velazquez in the irons is also a tremendous advantage. Velazquez happens to be a two-time Belmont winner, so he knows how to navigate the treacherous 12 furlongs with success.
Materiality has proved himself on a graded-stakes stage, winning the Florida Derby to gain entry into the Kentucky Derby field. With a bit of time to recover from a somewhat-disappointing trip in Louisville, he ought to be ready to challenge for the Belmont Stakes.
The fact that Materiality still had plenty in the tank toward the end of the Kentucky Derby suggests he has the stamina to thrive on the longer Belmont Park track. A fresh jockey in Velazquez subbing in for Javier Castellano may be just what he needs.
Show: Keen Ice
Betting on a 20-1 shot to finish in the money may be bold and potentially profitable, but there is at least some sound logic behind such a hypothetical wager.
Remember how Tale of Verve was the longest shot in the Preakness field and looked to live up to that lowly billing before storming to the finish and placing second. Something similar could be in store for Keen Ice if he breaks well.
The Blood-Horse's Steve Haskin was on hand to witness Keen Ice's exceptional workout at Churchill Downs before he made the trip to New York:
Keen Ice finished just one spot behind Materiality in the Kentucky Derby after having his own issues in the beginning.
Donegal Racing manager Jerry Crawford cites the aforementioned long record of Triple Crown bids falling short over the past several decades in making his case for Keen Ice, per the Lexington Herald-Leader's Alicia Wincze Hughes:
"I'm high on him because I believe in history and history tells us that, as spectacular a horse as American Pharoah is, he is not bred to run 1½ miles. If he doesn't run on the front end, then he can't control the tempo. If he does run on the front end, he faces the reality of only two of the last 29 Belmont winners have won on the front end. And if you go back and watch the Derby and look at what happened to Keen Ice ... and still see him come the way he did, it gives you goose bumps when you think about what could happen going a mile and a half.
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Less traffic at Belmont Park and a longer distance to make up ground only help Keen Ice's cause as a dark-horse contender. Keen Ice's formidable physicality and massive frame stand out. Such characteristics are ideal to endure the Test of the Champion in Elmont.
With two finishes in third and a fourth-place outing in the Louisiana Derby among the Grade 2 results Keen Ice had leading up to Churchill Downs, though, he can't be counted on as anything more than an in-the-money finisher.
American Pharoah seems destined to join the ranks of Triple Crown legends in an era when it's harder than ever to get the job done. The 37-year wait should finally end, because he has the faculties to run with an early pace and explode to the finish, as he's done in capturing both of the first two legs.
The finish should be thrilling, if the speed Materiality and Keen Ice showed at the Derby was any indication. They weren't in the heated battle with American Pharoah at the front of that race, but don't be surprised if the pair is with everything on the line at Belmont.
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