Belmont Stakes Odds 2015: Updated Vegas Lines and Predictions After Post Draw

A potential Triple Crown has turned from a mirage into a real possibility in 2015 and became even clearer with Wednesday's draw of the Belmont Stakes post positions.

So much is against American Pharoah entering his quest to end a 37-year Triple Crown drought that has clouded over the biggest moments in horse racing over the last several years. He'll become the 14th horse since Affirmed in 1978 to attempt completing the trifecta after winning the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes. The 13 that preceded him all lost, eight as odds-on favorites.

But unlike at Churchill Downs and Pimlico, where he had to overcome unfavorable gate draws, things set up rather well for American Pharoah out of the No. 5 spot for Saturday's race.

2015 Belmont Stakes Post Draw and Odds

Post	Horse	Trainer	Jockey	Odds
1	Mubtaahij	Mike De Kock	Irad Ortiz Jr.	10-1
2	Tale of Verve	Dallas Stewart	Gary Stevens	15-1
3	Madefromlucky	Todd Pletcher	Javier Castellano	12-1
4	Frammento	Nick Zito	Mike Smith	30-1
5	American Pharoah	Bob Baffert	Victor Espinoza	3-5
6	Frosted	Kiaran McLaughlin	Joel Rosario	5-1
7	Keen Ice	Dale Romans	Kent Desormeaux	20-1
8	Materiality	Todd Pletcher	John Velazquez	6-1

Odds provided by Vegas Insider, updated post-draw

Win-Place-Show Predictions

Pos.	Horse	Odds
Win	American Pharoah	3-5
Place	Materiality	6-1
Show	Frosted	5-1

If American Pharoah is going to make history Saturday at Belmont Park, Wednesday's post positions draw certainly positioned him in the ideal spot to do so.

After starting from the outside at the Kentucky Derby and from the inside post at Pimlico, Pharoah will start out right in the middle this time around. He drew the No. 5 post for Saturday's race, sandwiched between long-shot Frammento and secondary favorite Frosted.

The only way Pharoah will be put under some early adversity—which hasn't happened this spring—is if someone challenges him out of the gates. From the fifth spot, all it will take is a strong start to set the pace that jockey Victor Espinoza wants.

Richard Drew/Associated Press

From there on, we've seen what American Pharoah does—he keeps his opponents around him until that final turn, where he pulls away convincingly. 

Already having proven better than the other horses in the field, the only real question for Pharoah is whether the three races in five weeks will catch up to him. But trainer Bob Baffert has been in this position before, and is increasingly confident of his chances, according to the New York Daily News' Jerry Bossert:

"

We're sort of used to running in these big races, so it's not like it's the first time for us. We know that as long as we're prepared and we know what we need to do — that's the whole thing. The only thing that I would get nervous about would be if things aren't going well, but so far everything has been right on schedule. There haven't been any setbacks, no hiccups, so that's the main thing.

"

As in the previous two legs of the Triple Crown, the ending at Belmont should inevitably turn into a race for second place—which sets up well for Materiality.

Julie Jacobson/Associated Press

Trainer Todd Pletcher's coveted colt couldn't put it all together at Churchill Downs but got those valuable five weeks of rest under him before Belmont. Starting from the outside post can be tricky but will give jockey John Velazquez more options to attack.

As Pletcher told Kentucky Derby Contenders, the draw outside of American Pharoah could prove to be a kicker in allowing Materiality to run his race:

Coming in third will be Frosted, who will have more than enough time amid the 1.5-mile track to make up for what should be a tough start for trainer Kiaran McLaughlin's contender.

As shown at Churchill Downs, Frosted is susceptible to struggling out of the gates. But he also showed his incredible resolve, bursting down the stretch at a similar speed as American Pharoah, only to finish a hair behind Dortmund's third-place finish.

Although Frosted is in line to run a strong race, even his trainer conceded worry, via The Courier-Journal's Jennie Rees: "Like I said, I love our horse. He couldn't be doing better. But wow, it's going to take a subpar race from American Pharoah, I'm afraid."

That quote just about sums up the feeling across the sport entering the 14th attempt for a Triple Crown in the last 37 years. Everyone knows the historical perspective and what he's going up against, but nobody has seen a horse quite like American Pharoah in that timespan.