Belmont Stakes 2015 Contenders: Favorites, Lineup Odds After Post Position Draw
The last time we saw a Triple Crown winner was in 1978 when Affirmed broke from the No. 3 gate and outlasted Alydar to take the Belmont Stakes. The colt became the 11th horse to claim the sport's most coveted feat, and while 13 others with the same aspirations have made the trip to Belmont Park since, none has emerged victorious.
This year, American Pharoah heads to Belmont Park after winning both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes, but will he just become the 14th horse to try—and fail—to claim the Triple Crown, or will he etch his name in the history books?
.jpg?w=256 "Colts Jaguars Football")
One of the biggest remaining wild cards for the Belmont Stakes was the post draw. Pharoah hadn't fared well in that department in either the Derby or Preakness, and the fatigued colt needed a change in his fortunes for a shot to win the 1 1/2-mile Belmont.
With the post draw now officially in the books, here's a look at how each horse fared, the updated odds and the top contenders in the 2015 Belmont Stakes.
Belmont Stakes Post Positions and Odds
| 1 | Mubtaahij | 10-1 |
| 2 | Tale of Verve | 15-1 |
| 3 | Madefromlucky | 12-1 |
| 4 | Frammento | 30-1 |
| 5 | American Pharoah | 3-5 |
| 6 | Frosted | 5-1 |
| 7 | Keen Ice | 20-1 |
| 8 | Materiality | 6-1 |
Post positions and odds courtesy of the Courier-Journal.
Top Contenders
American Pharoah
This horse needs no introduction. American Pharoah put together a pair of memorable performances in the first two legs of the Triple Crown; however, he didn't have it easy.
Pharoah started from the No. 16 gate—he drew No. 18 but moved inside due to scratches—at Churchill Downs. The position forced him to make up plenty of additional ground, as he had to begin very wide. After a great break out of the gate, he found himself in third position but had to run three wide off the rail to maintain it. Somehow, he salvaged enough stamina to cross the finish line first.
At Pimlico, Pharoah drew the dreaded No. 1 gate—a position that had previously yielded just one winner since 1961. The colt accelerated beautifully through the muddy conditions, hugging the rail and moving to the front of the pack. Despite that early use of energy, he still maintained enough endurance to win by an impressive seven lengths.
While fatigue will likely be an issue for Pharoah in the Belmont Stakes, trainer Bob Baffert remains very confident in the colt and shared his thoughts on recent workouts during an interview with Jerry Bossert of the New York Daily News:
"We're sort of used to running in these big races, so it's not like it's the first time for us. We know that as long as we're prepared and we know what we need to do—that's the whole thing. The only thing that I would get nervous about would be if things aren't going well, but so far everything has been right on schedule. There haven't been any setbacks, no hiccups, so that's the main thing.
"
With a great deal of stamina at his disposal, zero setbacks since the Preakness and a solid starting position in the Belmont Stakes—the No. 5 gate has yielded 13 winners in the race's history—there's a very good chance the 37-year Triple Crown drought will be coming to an end very soon.
Frosted
Frosted has been a tricky horse to predict this year. He entered four races, winning one (the Wood Memorial), finishing fourth twice (notably in the Kentucky Derby) and notching one runner-up showing. This colt has some very clear strengths and weaknesses, but he may benefit from the additional length of the Belmont Stakes.
Looking back at Frosted's Wood Memorial victory and Kentucky Derby showing, it appears as though he has a bit of difficulty starting quickly. At Churchill Downs, he fell to the rear of the pack early and was forced to navigate his way through the large field while making up ground.
That brings us to his strength. Frosted has a great deal of endurance and some phenomenal closing speed. He began to run hard with roughly one-half mile remaining in the Derby, passing many very strong contenders on his way to finish in fourth place. He may have been the most impressive horse down the final few furlongs—even more impressive than Pharoah.
The trick at Belmont will be Frosted's start. Dropping back from the lead pack won't be a big problem, as the race boasts a smaller field, and its additional distance will give him more of an opportunity to make up ground. However, Frosted must avoid falling too far off the pace and giving himself an insurmountable distance to cover down the stretch.
Materiality
Materiality burst onto the scene in 2015 with a victory in the Florida Derby. However, his win wasn't overly impressive, as a time of one minute, 52.30 seconds in a 1 1/8-mile race was rather sluggish. The colt didn't fare any better in the Kentucky Derby, starting poorly and making up just enough ground to finish sixth.
The Todd Pletcher-trained colt was originally slated to race in the Preakness Stakes, but he was pulled by the trainer's request. Pletcher spoke of his reasoning to forgo the Preakness during an interview with Jonathan Lintner of the Courier-Journal:
"We were considering it very seriously. Basically, it came down to we just felt two weeks was a little bit risky. We felt five weeks to the Belmont would be an advantage for him. He's been at Belmont since two days after the Derby and has been training well. He's by a Belmont-winning sire. If you come back in two weeks and you turn out to be wrong, not only could you not run well in the Preakness, it could compromise your chances in the Belmont as well.
"
So, Pletcher's plan was to focus solely on the Belmont Stakes in hopes Materiality would come through to take down Pharoah. It was a smart move, as the colt is very well-rested; however, the post position draw didn't do him any favors. Materiality drew the No. 8 gate—a position that has only yielded five previous winners.
Materiality will need to find a way to get himself inside and avoid running an unnecessarily long distance in an already long race. His endurance is good—he does have a distance pedigree—but if he can't get off to a desirable start, his hopes of winning the Belmont Stakes could be dashed before the first turn.
.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
