Belmont Stakes Picks 2015: Predictions for American Pharoah and Race-Day Odds

American Pharoah heads into the 2015 Belmont Stakes with a chance at history. He held off a deep field in the Kentucky Derby and surged away from the pack to easily capture the Preakness Stakes. Now the Triple Crown is on the line at Belmont Park.

Affirmed was the last horse to win all three marquee races all the way back in 1978. Since that point, 13 different horses have had a chance to complete the trifecta in the final leg and couldn't finish the job. California Chrome joined that list last year.

Let's check out the field Pharoah will face as he attempts to end the extended Triple Crown drought on Saturday. It's followed by a deeper dive into his chances in the toughest test of the journey.

2015 Belmont Stakes Field

Post	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Odds
1	Mubtaahij	Irad Ortiz Jr.	Mike de Kock	14-1
2	Tale of Verve	Gary Stevens	Dallas Stewart	20-1
3	Madefromlucky	Javier Castellano	Todd Pletcher	14-1
4	Frammento	Mike Smith	Nick Zito	33-1
5	American Pharoah	Victor Espinoza	Bob Baffert	10-13
6	Frosted	Joel Rosario	Kiaran McLaughlin	11-2
7	Keen Ice	Kent Desormeaux	Dale Romans	25-1
8	Materiality	John Velazquez	Todd Pletcher	13-2

American Pharoah Outlook

American Pharoah has showcased the talent necessary to win the Triple Crown since well before the Kentucky Derby. This is a horse that won three Grade 1 stakes and one Grade 2 stakes to establish himself as the horse to beat heading to Churchill Downs.

At this point, however, it's about more than pure speed. The Belmont is an endurance test at the end of an already hectic schedule. This will be the third race in five weeks for Pharoah, which is by far the most challenging stretch of his career.

Quite simply, it's impossible to know how a horse will respond to those circumstances. The 12 furlongs have proved too much for many of the Triple Crown contenders that came before him, so he would be in good company if he falls short in his quest.

Jim Chairusmi of the Wall Street Journal notes trainer Bob Baffert was already feeling good about his star horse's prospects on Tuesday.

"I think his energy level is good," Baffert said "If the race was tomorrow, we're ready to go."

Energy is the most important factor by a wide margin. If Pharoah has enough left in the tank to run his best race one more time, it's hard to imagine another horse outpacing him. But nobody will know for sure what he has left to give until jockey Victor Espinoza asks for a late kick as they turn for home.

The extra distance has made the Belmont highly unpredictable in recent years. ESPN Stats & Info provided a stat to illustrate that point:

Along with the length of the race, his variety of opponents also adds to the challenge.

The two that are likely to get the most attention are Frosted and Materiality. They finished fourth and sixth, respectively, in the Kentucky Derby and skipped the Preakness. They should be well rested and ready to push Pharoah.

Tim Layden of Sports Illustrated has been bullish on Materiality during the Belmont buildup:

Jennie Rees of the Courier-Journal passed along comments from Frosted trainer Kiaran McLaughlin. He likes his horse but knows Pharoah will need to have an off day to open the door for anybody else:

"

It's a whole lot different. It's a much tougher race with one main horse. American Pharoah looks like a superstar and is going to be very hard to beat. The closer we get to the race, I just have to keep going back to the fact that it's been a long time since we've had a Triple Crown winner. I've watched his workouts and he just looks like a special horse.

Like I said, I love our horse. He couldn't be doing better. But wow, it's going to take a subpar race from American Pharoah, I'm afraid.

"

Two other horses to keep an eye on are Tale of Verve, who came from off the pace to finish second in the Preakness, and Madefromlucky.

The latter is a new shooter who won the Peter Pan Stakes with a better time over the same distance than American Pharoah posted in the Arkansas Derby. He also finished second to Pharoah in the Rebel Stakes earlier in the year.

All told, this is a really tough call. Recent history suggests the Derby and Preakness winner faces an uphill battle on Saturday. But he was able to save some energy as he routed the field at the end of the second leg, and every little bit helps at this point.

Pharoah should be highly competitive and in the mix right down to the final furlong. Alas, there are too many factors working against him, and this field is strong enough to take advantage. The Triple Crown wait may continue for another year.

American Pharoah Prediction: Second Place