Belmont Stakes 2015 Post Positions: Updated Odds and Predictions After Draw
The anticipation for the 2015 Belmont Stakes just increased tenfold, as the race's post positions were announced Wednesday afternoon. The starting locations for the Triple Crown's third jewel are extremely important due to the lengthy 1 1/2-mile distance of the race.
In fact, when taking an historical look at winners produced from each starting position, there's a very clear trend: Starting in one of the inside gates gives a big advantage. From gates No. 1 through No. 7, no fewer than seven horses have emerged victorious from each location. However, gate Nos. 8, 9 and 10 produced just five, three and two winners, respectively.
So, here's the big question: Which gate did Triple Crown hopeful American Pharoah draw? After all, the colt's luck wasn't spectacular in either the Kentucky Derby (gate No. 18) or the Preakness Stakes (gate No. 1) draws. Well, here's a look at the 2015 Belmont Stakes post positions, updated odds and total number of past winners from each starting location, followed by predictions for the race's ultimate outcome.
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Belmont Stakes Post Positions
| 1 | Mubtaahij | 10-1 | 23 |
| 2 | Tale of Verve | 15-1 | 11 |
| 3 | Madefromlucky | 12-1 | 13 |
| 4 | Frammento | 30-1 | 9 |
| 5 | American Pharoah | 3-5 | 13 |
| 6 | Frosted | 5-1 | 7 |
| 7 | Keen Ice | 20-1 | 11 |
| 8 | Materiality | 6-1 | 5 |
Post position and odds information courtesy of the Courier-Journal.
Belmont Stakes Predictions
| Win | American Pharoah |
| Place | Frosted |
| Show | Tale of Verve |
| Fourth | Madefromlucky |
American Pharoah strikes again. The colt finally landed a good starting position, drawing the No. 5 gate for the Belmont Stakes. The fact that he's sandwiched between Frosted—a horse that had struggled out of the gate in recent races—and the long shot Frammento gives jockey Victor Espinoza more initial options and further improves Pharoah's position.
Considering what Pharoah was able to accomplish in the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness Stakes from unfavorable starting locations, it's difficult to bet against the favorite at Belmont Park.
At Churchill Downs, the colt had to make up plenty of additional ground from his far-outside starting location, running the majority of the race three wide off the rail and still maintaining enough stamina to be the best horse down the final stretch. At Pimlico, Pharoah needed to run hard out of the gate to avoid getting caught against the rail and stuck in traffic. His endurance didn't falter, ultimately winning the race by seven lengths.
Sure, he's likely dealing with some fatigue, but trainer Bob Baffert appeared confident in what he's seen from the horse during pre-Belmont Stakes workouts. Here's what he had to say during an interview with Jerry Bossert of the New York Daily News:
"We're sort of used to running in these big races, so it's not like it's the first time for us. We know that as long as we're prepared and we know what we need to do—that's the whole thing. The only thing that I would get nervous about would be if things aren't going well, but so far everything has been right on schedule. There haven't been any setbacks, no hiccups, so that's the main thing.
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Without much of a reason to have a lack of confidence in Pharoah going forward, he's the easy pick to become the first Triple Crown winner in 37 years.
Frosted drew a favorable post for his running style. The colt is known for sluggish starts—he fell way behind in the Kentucky Derby but rallied to finish fourth—and his outside location will give him some options during the onset of the race.
If Frosted does fall well off the pace once again, he'll need to rely heavily on his stellar endurance and closing ability to finish strong. He was able to pass some very talented contenders down the final stretch of the Kentucky Derby, and considering he's rested after skipping the Preakness, he shouldn't have much of an issue doing it again at Belmont Park.
Third place goes to Tale of Verve. This colt showcased his excellent closing ability in the Preakness Stakes, coming from well behind the lead pack to finish in second. Starting in the No. 2 gate at Belmont should allow him to maintain a better position throughout the race, and if he can make another strong charge down the final stretch, he's likely to finish in the money.
Rounding out the top four is Madefromlucky. Starting in gate No. 3 should allow this colt to run close to the rail for the majority of the Belmont Stakes, and considering he's very well rested—he hasn't raced since the May 9 Peter Pan Stakes—that should be a big advantage.
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