Belmont Stakes 2015 Post Positions: Historical Look at Race History's Best Slots

If there's one thing we've learned through this year's Triple Crown races, it's that post positions matter about as much as the abilities of the horses themselves.

Take Carpe Diem in the Kentucky Derby for instance. A back-to-back winner of the Tampa Bay Derby and Blue Grass Stakes, Carpe Diem went into the Derby as one of the race's top selections but was doomed as soon as the post-position draw was complete.

Carpe Diem doesn't work very well packed tight in company. When he received an assignment to the second post position, it was essentially a death sentence given the massive nature of the Derby field.

The same can be said about the importance of post positions in the Belmont Stakes as well.

Belmont Park is known for being rather unique. The track has odd dimensions and features long stretch runs and turns that are wider than most horses are used to running on.

The ever-important post-position draw will take place Wednesday, but before we get there, it seems prudent to assess the historical significance of the race's best post positions.

Fortunately, we have years worth of data to look at in order to determine which are the best and worst positions to run out of. Below, I'll give you a look at the winners each post position produced and a breakdown of a few of the most prolific post positions.

Projected Field

Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Odds
American Pharoah	Victor Espinoza	Bob Baffert	4-5
Frosted	Joel Rosario	Kiaran McLaughlin	5-1
Materiality	John Velazquez	Todd Pletcher	13-2
Madefromlucky	Javier Castellano	Todd Pletcher	12-1
Mubtaahij	Irad Ortiz Jr.	Michael de Kock	16-1
Tale of Verve	Gary Stevens	Dallas Stewart	20-1
Keen Ice	Kent Desormeaux	Dale Romans	25-1
Frammento	Mike Smith	Nick Zito	33-1

Results by Post Position

Post Position	Winners
1	23
2	11
3	15
4	10
5	14
6	7
7	13
8	6
9	4
10	2
11	3
12	1

Post Position 1

Historically speaking, being on the rail is the best pace to be.

This makes sense for a few reasons. First, as mentioned in the introduction, Belmont Park sports some odd dimensions. With wide turns and a long backstretch run, the last thing you want is to get caught running two and three wide all the way around the track.

Running wide through the turns and the backstretch is a surefire way to turn your already daunting 1 ½-mile race into two-plus miles.

Having the rail also has its pitfalls, though. If you don't have the gate speed to get out and position yourself well, it'd be easy to find yourself in a position where you're bottled up between and behind four or five horses, leaving a jockey to angle five wide coming out of the turn for home.

Every jockey will be angling to save as much ground as possible throughout the race, so the last thing each will want to do is make a five- or six-wide turn and spend his horse before the stretch run.

Just based on raw numbers, running out of the first post position is a huge benefit. That said, the position hasn't produced a winner since 2003 (Empire Maker), and to make matters worse, in the last five years, the horse racing out of the No. 1 post position has finished in the money just one time (Medal Count, 2014), per Equibase.

Post Position 3

Post position No. 3 has been, historically, the second-best post position to run out of. The position has produced 15 winners throughout the race's history, including Union Rags (2012), Ruler on Ice (2011) and Commendable (2000).

Post position No. 3 presents some of the same limitations of post position No. 1. Most important is the fact that if your horse fails to break cleanly from the gate, he'll get buried.

There is a little more flexibility here, though, especially in this year's race, as the field is slated to carry only eight competitors. The third post position allows for a runner to break and tuck in or to break and run two wide alongside a competitor.

Nobody wants to ride two wide around the massive Belmont Park dirt track, but if faced with choosing between that and getting stuck 10 lengths back of the lead, the choice is an easy one to make.

Post Position 7

I'm skipping the fifth post position because it's kind of boring and there's only one win separating it and post position No. 7 from producing the third-most winners.

Why are we discussing post position No. 7? Well, to put it simply, it's arguably the most intriguing one in the field this year.

With just eight runners slated to take to the track this year, the seventh post position goes from one almost right in the middle with a full field to one on the far outside.

Of the positions that will be filled in the starting gate this year, No. 7 has produced the fourth-most winners. However, this year, the horse to his immediate right will undoubtedly to either break quickly and tuck in or fall back and tuck in.

The seventh post position has had some pretty good luck in terms of producing quality runners in recent years, logging three in-the-money finishes since 2009—Drosselmeyer won out of the seven hole in 2010. That said, if the runner out of the eighth post position hangs whoever is running out of post position No. 7 out to dry, the horse in the seventh post position can kiss his dreams of winning the Belmont goodbye.

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