Belmont Stakes 2015 Post Positions: Picks and Race-Day Outlook for Entire Lineup

We could spend hundreds of words pontificating about the competition. We could point out how Todd Pletcher smartly pulled all of his horses out of the Preakness in hopes of playing the spoiler. We could even take a deep-dive look at Affirmed, the last horse to take the Triple Crown.

That would be great—perhaps even a worthy use of our time. But no one cares. Any subplot not directly related to American Pharoah and his pursuit of the Triple Crown will receive as much attention and nuance as a WWE jobber.

Post No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Morning-Line Odds
1	Mubtaahij	Irad Ortiz, Jr.	Mike de Kock	14-1
2	Tale of Verve	Gary Stevens	Dallas Stewart	20-1
3	Madefromlucky	Javier Castellano	Todd Pletcher	14-1
4	Frammento	Mike Smith	Nick Zito	40-1
5	American Pharoah	Victor Espinoza	Bob Baffert	5-7
6	Frosted	Joel Rosario	Kiaran McLaughlin	6-1
7	Keen Ice	Kent Desormeaux	Dale Romans	25-1
8	Materiality	John Velazquez	Todd Pletcher	13-2

Anyone who is willing to speak openly would acknowledge this as fact. American Pharoah is the only horse in Saturday's field that matters. If he navigates the Belmont slog and completes the Triple Crown, we'll have witnessed history. If he doesn't, the only conversation we'll have will be about how American Pharoah came short.

Case in point: Can you name the horse that won the Belmont last year without looking it up? You just cheated, didn't you? Tonalist was the correct answer, but he's better known in casual circles as "the horse that defeated California Chrome." Go on down the line, and you'll find a rich history of near-misses and the anonymous horses that prevented history.

That's not a knock on anyone involved. It's just a reality of a business that's become increasingly niche outside of its four (including the Breeders' Cup) marquee races and has been chasing the Triple Crown dragon for nearly four decades. 

A simple look at television ratings can offer all the evidence you need of how much American Pharoah means to the sport. In 2013, the Belmont broadcast averaged seven million viewers. Last year, with California Chrome on the precipice of history, the viewership nearly tripled. 

"Is it gonna be good if he wins? Absolutely," trainer Nick Zito told Dan Wolken of USA Today. "I'm a horse trainer. I want to win that race, I want to make history myself. However, if American Pharoah wins and I got my eighth [Belmont Stakes] second place ... I'm gonna say, 'Where do I sign?' I'd be delighted. The game is bigger than everybody."

Thirteen horses have had "the game" banking on them since Affirmed in 1978. Each has failed to come through. Four of those horses have come in second place, and eight have finished on the podium. But Saturday is an all-or-nothing proposition for American Pharoah. There is really no historical difference between I'll Have Another and Smarty Jones; history recognizes them as coming up equally short.

Seth Wenig/Associated Press

"We're going in with zero excuses," owner Ahmed Zayat said, per Childs Walker of the Baltimore Sun. "You go in trying to train them for a big day like that. This is the test of champions. He has to earn it."

Of course, if Zayat and Co. ever do want to make excuses, they won't be lacking. The Triple Crown is the sport's truest test of endurance. The Belmont will not only be Pharoah's third race in a little over a month; it'll also be his longest. At 1.5 miles, the Belmont is two full furlongs more than the Kentucky Derby and 2.5 more than the Preakness.

“The mile-and-a-half? We don’t know," trainer Bob Baffert said, per Larry Stumes of SFGate. "Everybody else is in the same boat with us. We don’t know how far this horse is going to want to go. But that’s what this test is all about.”

There's also the matter of those in the field hoping to play the spoiler. There are a number of horses in the field that skipped out on the Belmont or even the Triple Crown buildup altogether. While there is no real historical recognition that comes with taking down a potential winner, the Belmont itself features a hefty prize and the opportunity to up breeding costs in the future.

Charlie Riedel/Associated Press

Pletcher, who held his horses out a few weeks ago, will be the most notable trainer in the field given his number of contenders.

“Anytime you are going up against a horse like American Pharoah, you are hoping for any edge you can get, the home-course advantage and the mile-and-a-half is an X-factor, for everyone, really. That is the great equalizer,” Pletcher said, per Tom Pedulla of the New York Times (h/t the Bulletin). 

Will Pharoah finally end the Triple Crown drought? Will Pletcher be able spoil his biggest rival's greatest triumph? No one knows. But no matter the result, we all know how this is going to play out. The star of the show is American Pharoah. We're all just along for the ride.

Picks: Win: American Pharoah; Place: Materiality; Show: Tale of Verve