2015 Belmont Stakes: Early Weather Forecast and Field Odds for Elmont
All eyes are fixed on American Pharoah as the 2015 Belmont Stakes draws near. The talented colt overcame an unfavorable outside starting position in the Kentucky Derby and some sloppy weather in the Preakness Stakes to enter Belmont with Triple Crown aspirations.
Now, Pharoah must battle his biggest obstacle yet—fatigue.
Running three races in a stretch of five weeks is tough on any horse, and taking into consideration the longer 1 ½-mile distance at Belmont Park and a field of well-rested contenders, the odds are stacked against Pharoah. But should we have any reason to doubt the horse that won the first two jewels of the Triple Crown?
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To better assess Pharoah's chances at Belmont Park, we must take all factors into consideration. That said, here's a look at the race's weather forecast and updated field odds.
Weather Forecast
It looks like Pharoah may have to continue his run for the Triple Crown on yet another sloppy track. According to Weather.com, Elmont, New York, is expecting a high of 76 degrees on Saturday, June 6, along with a 40 percent chance of afternoon showers. We may not see quite as muddy of a track as we did at Pimlico, but it looks as though the elements are likely to come into play once again.
Updated Field Odds
| American Pharoah | 4-5 |
| Frosted | 5-1 |
| Materiality | 13-2 |
| Madefromlucky | 12-1 |
| Mubtaahij | 16-1 |
| Tale of Verve | 20-1 |
| Keen Ice | 25-1 |
| Frammento | 33-1 |
Belmont Stakes odds courtesy of Odds Shark.
Field Analysis
You'll notice one big name missing from the list of expected contenders. Carpe Diem, a Todd Pletcher-trained colt, will not be entered in the Belmont Stakes. This comes as quite a surprise considering the horse was the race's fourth favorite with 12-1 odds.
During an interview with Frank Angst of BloodHorse.com, WinStar Farm president Elliott Walden explained why Carpe Diem was pulled from the race: "We just felt like he wasn't quite 100 percent. His last two works have been good—timewise they've been great—Todd just feels like he's not quite where he was for the Blue Grass or Breeders' Futurity. He's too good a horse to lead over there not feeling 110 percent confident."
Since the news regarding Carpe Diem surfaced, Madefromlucky saw his odds improve from 16-1 up to 12-1. This colt is a bit of a wild card in the Belmont Stakes, as he has yet to run in a Triple Crown race. He finished second to Pharoah earlier in the year in the Rebel Stakes, and he also finished fourth in the Arkansas Derby—another race that Pharoah won—before finally emerging victorious in the Peter Pan Stakes.
Madefromlucky has made noticeable improvements since his races earlier in the year. He's fresh and will get one more shot at taking Pharoah down.
Two other threats to Pharoah are the second- and third-favorite horses, Frosted and Materiality. Both are entering the Belmont Stakes after competing in the Kentucky Derby and skipping the Preakness Stakes.
Frosted was impressive in the second half of the Derby. He got off to a slow start—which has become a signature of sorts for the colt—but after running well off the pace for the majority of the race, he began to run hard with a half mile remaining, bursting past the majority of the traffic to finish fourth.
With a smaller field at Belmont Park and a little more distance to make his late gallop to the front, things appear to be setting up well for Frosted at Elmont.
Materiality was in a similar situation in the Derby. After a lackluster start, he found himself well behind the lead pack. He also made a nice late charge at Churchill Downs, moving up to finish in sixth place. Materiality has showed his ability to break better in the past, and if he's able to do so at Belmont Park, he could be a factor down the final stretch.
One sleeper to watch is Tale of Verve. He made a phenomenal charge late in the Preakness Stakes, and while he finished a full seven lengths behind Pharoah, he was strong enough to pass all other contenders while matching the eventual winner's pace down the final furlong. If Tale of Verve can find his way into the lead pack early, his great closing ability will make him a big threat to Pharoah's Triple Crown bid.
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